Match Preview - CF Monterrey
Game Info
Kickoff: 8:00pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
This will be the first meeting between Austin FC and CF Monterrey.
CF Monterrey Recent Form
Like we did with Pumas last week, let’s talk a bit about the storied history of our opponents on Tuesday, CF Monterrey. Founded in 1945, the club has been owned by FEMSA, Latin America’s largest bottling company, since 1999. Nicknamed “Rayados” (which means “The Striped-Ones”), Monterrey have had massive success on the pitch throughout their 79-year history. Their trophy case includes seven league titles, three domestic cups and five CONCACAF championships, including a three peat from 2011-2013. In 2020, they became the second Mexican club to complete the continental treble, which requires a club to win their domestic first-division league, their main domestic cup competition and the main continental trophy. In that season, Rayados won the Liga MX Apertura, the Copa MX and the CONCACAF Champions cup. Their all-time leading goal scorer, Rogelio Funes Mori, is now a member of Pumas and subbed on in the second half of their loss to Austin FC on Friday night.
Since the beginning of the 2022-23 Apertura, Monterrey have a Liga MX record of 55 wins, 14 draws and 13 losses with a goal differential of +61. In last year’s Leagues Cup they defeated both of their opponents, Real Salt Lake and Seattle Sounders, by an aggregate score of 7-2. They then progressed to the semi-finals where they were knocked out by Nashville SC 2-0 and then defeated in the third place match by Philadelphia Union 3-0. In the 2024 CONCACAF Champions Cup, Rayados defeated FC Cincinnati by a 3-1 aggregate scoreline then dispensed of Lionel Messi and Inter Miami in the second round by an aggregate score of 5-2. They were then eliminated in the semi-finals by Columbus Crew 5-2 on aggregate. Simply put, this is a monstrosity of an opponent coming into Q2 Stadium on Tuesday night.
As we discussed on Episode 163 over the weekend, Rayados is sitting in 4th through the first four games of the 2024 Apertura. They got their butts whooped 4-0 by Cruz Azul on the road, but have won their other three matches by a combined scoreline of 4-1, with road victories over Pachuca and Necaxa before a win over Querétaro at home before the break. We also talked about the disparity in “roster value” between these two clubs on Transfermarkt. Their roster is “worth” $77 million compared to Austin FC’s $43 million (and more than 25% of that $43 million has been added in the summer transfer window). It’s another tall task in front of ATX on Tuesday.
Austin FC Recent Form
Speaking of everyone’s favorite team, things would have to go disgustingly wrong on Tuesday night to plunge me back into the depths of fandom despair. The apparent quality of the team’s new additions combined with excellent overall health of the roster and the captaincy change that took place on Friday has me feeling like the winds are shifting in a favorable direction for Austin FC’s future outlook. Does that mean a deep Leagues Cup run or a surefire playoff berth in league play? Of course not, and I’d argue that a deep run in this tournament could potentially spell trouble for the team’s playoff hopes. But we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it, first things first and that’s advancing out of West Group 1.
In the 2023 Leagues Cup, no team that secured three or more points in the group stage failed to advance to the Round of 32. But Friday’s victory hasn’t punched Austin’s ticket to the knockout rounds quite yet. A win would clinch the group for ATX and a draw with a penalty shootout victory would do the same, with a draw and penalty shootout loss at least guaranteeing that they’d make it into the knockout rounds either as the winner or second place in West Group 1. A loss would still keep Austin FC very much alive, needing a Pumas loss or draw against Rayados on Saturday at Q2 Stadium to advance cleanly. Where it could potentially get messy is in the event of a Rayados win on Tuesday and a Pumas win on Saturday, which would put all three teams on three points. The tie breakers in the Leagues Cup group stage are as follows.
If at the end of the Group Stage, two or more Clubs are tied in points, their position in the table would be determined according to the following tie-breaking criteria (these are only considered if the previous criterium in the list does not determine which Club advances):
1. Direct head-to-head match result between the tied Clubs (for clarity, a win in penalty kicks is a win for purposes of this tiebreaker).
2. Better goal differential between goals scored and goals conceded during the Group Stage.
3. Greater number of goals scored during the Group Stage.
4. Fewer number of goals conceded during the Group Stage.
5. Clubs Fair Play table (as defined and explained below).
6. The winner will be chosen in a draw organized by the Organizing Committee.
Ultimately, the Verde and Black control their own destiny in West Group 1 headed into Tuesday’s match, so I’m not personally worrying about tie breakers until after the final whistle blows and ATX hasn’t clinched. They’ll have to do so without new designated player Osman Bukari, who was sent off early on Friday following two controversial yellow cards. They also won’t see the debut of new centerback Oleksandr Svatok for conditioning reasons per head coach Josh Wolff in media availability on Monday morning. He also hinted at additional lineup changes, saying “We’ll try to utilize… a couple of new guys as well that have freshness.”
Trying to dissect the typical Wolff dodge, I think we’ll see Jáder Obrian get a start after not playing on Friday and potentially a change to the centerback pairing of Brendan Hines-Ike and Matt Hedges. There’s also the question of goalkeeper after Stefan Cleveland got the start against Pumas and secured the win on a stoppage time penalty kick save after looking mighty shaky through the first 80-plus minutes. Will Brad Stuver be back in net? I think so, but will not be upset in the slightest if Wolff gives Cleveland another nod.
Injury Report
ATX - Osman Bukari (Out - Red card suspension), Oleksandr Svatok (Out - Conditioning)
MTY - None
CF Monterrey Players to Watch
Brandon Vasquez - The 25-year-old USMNT striker was sold to Rayados from FC Cincinnati in the middle of last season and led the team in goals per 90 minutes across the 2023-24 Apertura/Clausura. This will be his first time back at Q2 Stadium since Austin FC drubbed FC Cincinnati 5-0 in the season opening match of the 2022 season, when Vasquez had a performance to forget. He’s likely to give the ATX defense fits on Tuesday.
Sergio Canales - Canales has 11 caps for Spain after debuting with the nation’s senior squad in 2019. With over 300 La Liga appearances to his name with clubs like Real Madrid, Valencia, Real Sociedad and Real Betis, Canales joined Monterrey in 2023. He’s racked up 12 goals in his 29 appearances and is the hub of the Rayados attack.
Germán Berterame - More of a second forward due to his undersized stature for the postion, the 25-year-old Argentinian forward has 22 goals in his 70 appearances for Rayados. This trio of attacking options forms a formidable (to put it lightly) challenge for ATX and I haven’t even mentioned that they also have Maxi Meza in the fold, a 31-year-old Argentine winger with 11 caps, including minutes at the last FIFA World Cup.
Austin’s Keys to the Game
Keep Your Head On Straight - The biggest issue plaguing Austin FC lately is their lack of discipline. We can discuss the nature of how they’ve accumulated three red cards and conceded two penalties over their last four matches until the cows come home but it doesn’t change the fact that the Verde and Black have been consistently shooting themselves in the foot. They won’t be able to get away with that against Rayados and must keep in mind that CONCACAF officiating ensures maximum chaos. Winning the mental and disciplinary sides of this game is crucial to securing a result and ultimately a spot in the Round of 32.
Enjoy The Moment - Those who were in attendance for Friday’s shorthanded upset of Pumas left discussing where the victory ranked among the best Austin FC moments in the club’s four-year history. For me, the environment was elevated by not only the grit and grind exemplified by ATX on the pitch, but also the large presence of Pumas fans in the stands. The Monterrey fanbase will show out in an equal or stronger fashion and keep the vibes tense at the Q. My hope is that players, coaches and fans alike buy-in to the atmosphere and don’t get overwhelmed by the talent disparity between the two squads on paper, especially if it rears its head early on in this match. As Austin showed on Friday, the game is not played on paper and embracing the opportunity they have presented themselves with is what I hope to see from all involved.
Predictions
E - 2-2 (Austin FC shootout win)
ZG - 3-1 CF Monterrey
