Match Preview - LAFC
Game Info
Kickoff: 9:40pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: BMO Stadium - Los Angeles, CA
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 2W-7L-1D against LAFC.
The two teams have already met twice this season, including the lone draw in this head-to-head series back in June at Q2 Stadium. LAFC then sent Austin FC packing in the Leagues Cup Round of 32 by a 2-0 scoreline. Austin hasn’t defeated LAFC since August of 2022.
LAFC Recent Form
It’s been just over a month since we last checked in on LAFC in detail headed into the Leagues Cup match between the two, but in true LAFC fashion, they’ve gotten even better (at least on paper) since. Oliver Giroud has suited up in seven straight matches for the Black and Gold, including three starts in his last four. They also signed 35-year-old club legend Carlos Vela before the MLS roster freeze deadline last Friday, adding another dangerous piece to their already lethal attack.
This team, as it usually does, spells trouble for Austin FC. The fact that the LAFC juggernaut hasn’t even found its final form yet, with Giroud integrating and Vela now in the fold, is astounding. To this point of the season they’re ranked seventh in goals per game and sixth in goals conceded per game. They also lead the league in both expected goals for and conceded on a per game basis. LAFC is first in MLS in shots on target per match and is tied for the league lead with 10 clean sheets. Just to illustrate how wide the divide between these two clubs has grown to be in just under two years since they met in a Western Conference Final, Austin ranks 27th, 10th, 28th, 25th, 29th and 9th in those respective stats.
When these two teams met for a Leagues Cup match back in August, we saw Austin FC run out a surprising lineup with Sebastián Driussi at the striker position. It yielded some promising outcomes, like 21 total shots, the most in any game this season for the Verde and Black. Ultimately, it also provided more of the same game script we’ve become accustomed to in this one-sided matchup. A Denis Bouanga counter attack caught the ATX back line off guard to open the scoring in the eleventh minute and another clinical counter attack finished off by Christian Olivera in the second half secured the 2-0 victory for Los Angeles.
LAFC will be without some recognizable names on Wednesday but that shouldn’t hurt their overwhelming chances of coming away with another victory over Austin. Jesús Murillo out with a knee injury? No problem, they’ll slot in Maxime Chanot or Eddie Segura at centerback. Lewis O’Brien caught a red card on Saturday? Cool, they can start Timothy Tillman in the midfield next to Eduard Atuesta and Illie Sanchez and keep it pushing.
Despite LAFC having a more congested schedule remaining than any other team in MLS, I don’t think we’ll see them rotate heavily against ATX on Wednesday. They’ll travel to Frisco on Saturday to take on FC Dallas and that’s when I believe they’ll rest some key players then ahead of the US Open Cup Final against Sporting KC next Wednesday night. Speaking of Frisco, LAFC can clinch a playoff spot with a win over Austin and an FC Dallas draw or loss against Real Salt Lake. I fully expect LAFC to come out guns blazing after taking a 4-2 loss on the chin in the most recent edition of “El Tráfico” this past weekend.
Austin FC Recent Form
Things are extremely bleak right now for our favorite team. Any potential momentum coming from the road victory over Nashville was squashed into oblivion by the virtual no-show against Vancouver. Then ATX dropped Saturday’s game on the road at Toronto despite generating more expected goals than any of the 27 other teams that played over the weekend and any other Austin FC match during the 2024 season to date. While the “underlying numbers” said ATX generated loads more offensively than we’ve come to expect, the result didn’t follow and (especially at this point of the season) that’s what matters.
So while I’m keeping my eye on some of those metrics down the home stretch of the final six games no matter how they break, the goal of playoff soccer is still mathematically attainable for Austin. To get there, ATX would likely have to bank at least 11 points over the six matches. It’s a fairly simple path to chart on paper. Win the three remaining home games against Houston, Real Salt Lake and Colorado, then find two or more points in the three remaining road matches against LAFC, Portland and LA Galaxy.
Now let’s look up from that path on paper and introduce a dose of reality, starting with the away games. LAFC, LA Galaxy and Portland have played a combined 43 matches at their respective home stadiums this season. Of those 43, they have five total losses between them. Austin FC on the other hand, has recorded just 12 points from their 14 road matches this season, scoring a measly nine total goals for in those games. Results seem unlikely, but let’s give ATX the benefit of the doubt and say they squeak out two draws.
Then we look at the home slate. It’s against my Verde religion to think that Austin will do anything but defeat Houston this coming Saturday. After all, the Dynamo franchise (first and second team combined) have never taken even a single point back home from the ATX. So I’m giving Austin three points there. But then comes RSL, a team that walloped Austin 5-1 back in early June. In fact, they’ve defeated ATX three straight times since the two met in the first round of the 2022 MLS playoffs, a match Austin won in penalties despite being up a man for over an hour. That’s far from a certain three points for the good guys.
On decision day comes Colorado, a team that brings back some good memories for the Verde faithful. But if you look at the historical results between the two, Colorado is a hurdle that Austin has yet to conquer at Q2 Stadium as the Rapids have a win and two draws in their three trips to central Texas. That dose of reality is cold.
However unlikely a late push for a wild card spot might be, it’s not over until it’s over. And there are stretches of Austin FC schedules past that point to the idea that this is achievable. We don’t even have to go back to the magical 2022 season for a sample like this. In fact, Austin FC have recorded at least 12 points in six games twice this season alone! ATX took home 19 points in a nine match span from March 30 to May 18 of this year, including two stretches of 13 points from six games (from March 30 to May 4 and April 20 to May 18) on either side of that sample.
The fact that the team went on those runs doesn’t mean they will even come close to doing the same in the upcoming six games. I’d argue that the opponents on the remaining schedule are about twice as tough as what Austin faced in those successful stretches earlier this season. But crazier things have happened! Even a point on Wednesday night against LAFC would be a step towards the unlikely path we charted above, while a loss still doesn’t disqualify them. And you know that in The North End, we aren’t giving up on this team until there’s absolutely nothing left to cheer for.
We did get media availability on Tuesday morning at the St. David’s Performance Center, where coach Wolff stated that “Matt Hedges is a little dinged up, I'd say he's highly questionable. He's got a little bit of a hip issue, that was part of his laboring through a little bit of the first half physically... Svati (Oleksandr Svatok), Leo and Julio are certainly in contention for minutes."
I feel confident that Julio Cascante will be one of the two starting CBs. But will we see the debut of Svatok in an Austin uniform? It would be a heck of a welcome to MLS moment to be thrown into the fire against LAFC. Will Leo Väisänen go from being left off the team sheet for the last few weeks to being slotted back into the starting XI? He last started a match on July 17th against FC Dallas. Of course, it could be misdirection from Wolff and we could see Hedges out there anyways (Update: Hedges has been ruled out of Wednesday’s match). But Tuesday’s news throws another wrench into Austin’s plans which they’re already having to make without the services of the three players suspended on yellow card accumulation, Driussi, Brendan Hines-Ike and Jhojan Valencia.
Injury Report
ATX:
Sebastián Driussi (Out - Yellow Card Accumulation)
Brendan Hines-Ike (Out - Yellow Card Accumulation)
Jhojan Valencia (Out - Yellow Card Accumulation)
Matt Hedges (Questionable - Hip)
LAFC:
Lewis O’Brien (Out - Red Card Suspension)
Jesús Murillo (Out - Knee)
Lorenzo Dellavalle (Out - Knee)
Christian Olivera (Questionable - Leg)
LAFC Players to Watch
Oliver Giroud - We didn’t get to see Giroud back in August (well, we did actually see him on our TV screens next to Will Ferrell instead of the Bouanga goal) but you bet we’ll get a taste of the former World Cup winner on Wednesday. Giroud may not start after playing 72 minutes against LA Galaxy on Saturday, but he’s a player that will likely give Austin fits when he is on the pitch, especially with the “new” CB pairing we expect ATX to run out there.
Hugo Lloris - Another one of the LAFC players with global name value, Lloris has used that to his benefit this season to avoid the masses calling out that he’s been quite average this year. He’s just 18th in MLS in PSxG+/- (post shot expected goals minus goals allowed, one of the best shot stopping metrics we have available to us) among keepers who have faced at least ten expected goals. Lloris saved all four of Austin’s shots on target last month, let’s hope he comes back to his average ways on Wednesday.
Mateusz Bogusz - I have serious doubts that anyone potentially reading this doesn’t know we have to watch out for Denis Bouanga in this game, so I want to highlight what Bogusz has compiled this season. He’s got 20 goal contributions (14G/6A) in his 26 league appearances in 2024. Those 20 contributions are good enough for 16th most across the league of 29 teams and again, Bouanga himself has 26. Bogusz is an all-league caliber player on a TAM deal, someone get GM John Thorrington out of our Western Conference!
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Finish! - This one is simple. While I don’t agree with coach Wolff that Austin FC found themselves in good enough spots to beat Vancouver at the end of August, it’s clear as day that they generated more than enough to get a result in Toronto but failed to convert. We saw this team (albeit with Driussi, Hines-Ike and Hedges all in the starting XI) get 21 shots in LA just over a month ago. There will be chances, in this game and in those that follow. Finish!
Help Brad Help You - Poor Bradley Scott Stuver has been bombarded by opposing offenses all year to the tune of 168 shots against in 28 league games. He’s had a great season in net all things considered (he’s fourth in both save percentage and PSxG+/-) but against LAFC he’ll need some additional help from the lines in front of him. With a new centerback pairing guaranteed headed into this match, Austin will have to hope the chemistry rekindles between Cascante and Väisänen or forms fast between one of those two and Svatok in his potential debut.
Predictions
ZG - 3-1 LAFC
E - 1-1 Draw
