Match Preview - St. Louis City SC
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday April 14 @ 3:54pm CT
Watch: FOX & Apple TV (free)
All-Time H2H Record
These two teams met last month at Q2 Stadium, with Austin taking the lead twice and City responding in turn with equalizing goals each time. The match ended in a 2-2 draw with a dramatic 90+3’ deflected goal.
St. Louis City swept the season series in their 2023 expansion campaign, defeating Austin FC 3-2 on opening night then drubbing the Verde & Black 6-3 last August.
St. Louis City Recent Form
Last season’s expansion darlings haven’t enjoyed the same type of fairytale start to the 2024 slate. St. Louis has won just one of their seven matches, although they’ve been able to pick up five draws along the way to stay in touch with the playoff line. They’re currently sitting in 11th place in the Western Conference, one point back of the wild card spots.
One big reason to blame for City’s sluggish start to the season is that they’ve been without designated player Eduard Löwen since the March 9th match at Q2. He was dealing with a hamstring issue initially, but word is that he may have missed last week’s match against FC Dallas due to personal reasons, even though he was listed on the official injury report as still dealing with the soft tissue injury. Footage was posted on the St. Louis City social media accounts today of both Löwen and defender Joakim Nilsson participating in the contact portion of practice, so while they may come into the weekend officially listed as questionable, I personally expect both of them to play. That’s not great news for Austin!
Now that we’re just over the 20% mark of the 2024 season, it’s finally time to start putting some emphasis on the data we’ve been given. On Wednesday’s episode we discussed some of the trends materializing from Austin’s team and individual statistics. On the St. Louis side, they’re still the same in-your-face team as last year. They’re second in MLS in sequence time (sequences are defined as passages of play which belong to one team and are ended by defensive actions, stoppages in play or a shot. Sequence time is the average time per sequence) at just 6.56 seconds per sequence. They’ve got the second fewest passes per sequence at 2.67 and are third in direct speed (a measure of how quickly a team progresses the ball up-field in meters per second) at 2.24, just behind LAFC and Philadelphia Union.
Löwen is the engine of this squad. He’s top ten in MLS in terms of shot-creating actions per 90 (The two offensive actions directly leading to a shot, such as passes, take-ons and drawing fouls) and is on sets and corners while wearing the armband for City. If Löwen is able to start and play 60-plus minutes on Sunday afternoon, it’s going to make Austin’s job of keeping the ball from progressing directly through the middle of the park a heck of a lot tougher.
Austin’s Recent Form
The last two weeks have been pretty damn fun for Austin FC fans. The back-to-back home victories were not short on dramatic moments, of course culminating in Sebastián Driussi’s 90+11’ winner against San Jose off a silky touch from Gyasi Zardes. Let’s dive into some of the numbers we should be paying attention to headed into this Sunday’s match.
Austin was able to run out the same starting XI in both of said victories, the first time all season that head coach Josh Wolff has done so. That meant zero minutes from designated player Emiliano Rigoni and a sub-role for veteran winger Ethan Finlay as Owen Wolff took the opportunity at right wing against FC Dallas and ran with it. It doesn’t appear we’ll be seeing that winger pairing of Jáder Obrian and Owen Wolff being broken up anytime soon. “He’s a responsible player,” said Coach Wolff of his son at Wednesday’s media availability, “he’s very secure. He’s probably one of our smarter players. That’s why he’ll continue to play.”
Both Wolff’s have their very vocal detractors amongst the fanbase. Say what you will about Josh’s coaching ability, his record or his frequently robotic press conferences. The last nine months haven’t done him any favors in that department. But the 19-year-old Owen is shining bright in 2024, despite what some fans taking a shallower approach to their analysis might have you think. He’s top three for the Verde & Black in progressive passes per 90, progressive passes received per 90, key passes per 90 and shot creating actions per 90. It’s no coincidence that the coaching staff figuring out how to include him alongside the likes of Driussi, Alex Ring and Dani Pereira in the starting group is paying dividends.
But let’s talk about the potential cold reality that could wash over the Austin FC universe in the coming weeks. Going back on the road is a daunting task for this team. Hell, ATX had twice as many goals in the final 40 minutes of Saturday’s win over San Jose than they’ve had shots on target in 180 minutes away from Q2 Stadium this season. Of course, there is more context to the game plans that the coaching staff tried to implement in the away matches thus far. The team was missing Driussi for the Seattle match and without Pereira and Julio Cascante against Orlando. That aside, any MLS team should be able to generate more offensively almost no matter who is on the pitch.
Even if we think that Austin is going to be up for a more aggressive offensive style when (sure, maybe “if” is a better turn of phrase) they’re able to control the ball this Sunday, a quick peek at the underlying numbers paints a pretty terrifying picture. Per FotMob’s expected points model, Austin FC has been the luckiest team in MLS through seven weeks, with four more points than expected. The only other team losing four points in the model is Minnesota United. But that keeps the Loons with seven expected points. Austin’s five is dead last.
Look, I don’t mean to be a downer. That’s not what we do around here! But we can’t just completely ignore what the stats are telling us. Underlying numbers are not the end of the story. If that were the case the 2022 season would have been a much different chapter in the club’s history. Teams overperform all the time, with the two clubs facing off in this match being the prime examples across the league over the last two years. Plus, Austin legitimately found its legs offensively in the recent homestand. If they can carry that with them this weekend, there are points to be had.
Injury Report
ATX – Leo Väisänen (Out – Foot)
STL – Joakim Nilsson (Questionable – Ribs), Eduard Löwen (Questionable – Hamstring), Njabulo Blom (Out - Hamstring), Josh Yaro (Out - Hamstring)
St. Louis City Players To Watch
Aziel Jackson – My co-host’s new arch nemesis is likely to terrorize the Austin FC back line once again on Sunday. The young attacking mid is a ball of energy, bouncing off defenders on the break and exhibits a sharp mind when it comes to absorbing contact at the right moment to draw dangerous set piece opportunities for his team. We saw this on display in March when he deked around Alex Ring before going down on contact in the penalty area.
Célio Pompeu – The 24-year-old Brazilian midfielder has been a revelation for City to this point in 2024. Pompeu is their target man on the break, leading the team in progressive passes received per 90 minutes by almost two full passes over the next closest teammate, the ever dangerous João Klauss. Pompeu was responsible for the last minute equalizer at Q2 Stadium last month and ATX will have to know where he is at all times in transition to be successful in limiting this St. Louis City side.
Roman Bürki – We talked about the former Swiss and Borussia Dortmund goalkeeper in the match preview earlier this season but I see no reason to not highlight him again this week. Bürki hasn’t quite been up to the levels we saw in 2023, when he was a fringe MVP candidate down the stretch of the regular season, but you’ll still find highlight saves on the MLS Wrap Up show each week on Apple TV. Austin has their work cut out for them to sneak a goal or two past him if they are able to finally generate some chances on the road.
Austin’s Keys To The Game
xDAWG – Everyone’s favorite imaginary advanced metric has seeped into the recent performances from Austin FC. They’ve trailed in six of their seven matches so far this season, but the team has been able to earn points from four of those six occasions. This is a significant change from the perceived lack of fight the Verde & Black displayed through most of the 2023 campaign, when they failed to record a victory from a losing position. After doing so twice in the last two games, the xDAWG is present in this Austin locker room. If they can keep that mentality over the long haul, this is a team that will pick up a road win (something the club hasn’t done since July 8 of last year) sooner rather than later.
Third Time’s The Charm – As discouraging as the first two road matches were this season, Austin FC has given fans a wisp of a reason to believe. It’s not just the dramatic comeback wins at home. It’s a team that has stuck together through early struggles and kept its head above water while it began the season without their talisman Driussi. They didn’t have #10 against Seattle and he was limited, both physically and minutes-wise against Orlando. ATX was also missing Pereira and Cascante in Florida a few weeks back. All three players will take on key roles this Sunday and are a big reason why we’re coming around to the idea that the team can get a result this weekend. Avert your eyes from the box scores against Seattle and Orlando and join me in reciting one of the oldest sayings around. The third time’s the charm. Let’s bring home some points!
The North End’s Predictions
ZG – 1-1 draw
E – Austin FC 2-1
