Week 8 MLS Picks
All good things come to an end and Week 7 was the end of the winning streak with the picks. But it wasn’t as bad as it could have been (shoutout to Minnesota and Christian Benteke on Sunday!) and we’re still in a great position overall. We move on.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 8 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Last week, we had another two out of three in our entry, which is only good for a moral victory. Still comfortably in the black on the season, we’ll try to get back to winning ways this week. Let’s head to the board!
This week’s entry feels a bit risky given that we’re attacking three props of players playing away from home. But the numbers look very solid for this trio. We begin with Emil Forsberg’s higher than 1.5 shots attempted. The Swedish DP is averaging just 1.74 shot attempts per 90 minutes this season but was at 2.46 per 90 in 2024. He also posted a 2.13 shot attempts per 90 rate in his final year at Leipzig before arriving in MLS. Forsberg is over this number in five of his seven appearances this season and was over in nine of 15 starts in 2024. Orlando City has had some good performances to start the year but they’re also allowing the 7th most opponent shots attempted in MLS.
Then we’ll go with our boy from the hometown club. Uzuni’s shots attempted prop is at a 0.9x multiplier but this is a strong enough lean towards the higher side of things that we’re willing to eat that juice. In his career, Uzuni averages 2.55 shots attempted per 90, including 3.06 shot attempts per 90 with Granada last year in La Liga 2. This season with Austin FC, Uzuni has posted a per 90 rate of 2.93 and has gone over this number in four of his five starts. Vancouver has been the best in MLS so far in limiting opponent shot attempts, but this line should be 2.5 instead of 1.5.
We’ll close out our three-pick for the week with Diego Luna. The 21-year-old midfielder has averaged 2.2 shots per 90 across 7,000 career minutes, along with 2.09 shots per 90 in his more than 4,200 minutes with Real Salt Lake. Nashville has been a staunch defense in terms of limiting opponent shot attempts this season, but after Walker Zimmerman exited last week’s match following a kick to the head (that has him in the concussion protocol for this game against RSL) they looked like a completely different unit. Luna is over this number in four of five games this season when playing 70 minutes or more and was over in 21 of 34 appearances last season across all competitions. The 1.07x multiplier helps mitigate some of the potential payout we’re losing taking Uzuni at 0.9x.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 5.77x your entry fee if successful.
A new feature we’re adding this week is some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week that we’re fine using in any entry are as follows. We will also add any props we’re interested in for the Sunday matches once the injury report drops on Saturday afternoon.
Kelvin Yeboah O 1.5 shots on target (1.1x)
Kevin Denkey O 2.5 shots attempted
Petar Musa O 2.5 shots attempted (1.1x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1.0 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +6.66 U
Week 8 Picks
Minnesota United
+135
We’re going to continue to ride with the Loons on the road after they came through for us last Sunday. This week they’ll travel north of the border to take on Toronto FC, one of the three remaining MLS sides without a win headed into the eighth matchday of the season. They have managed back-to-back draws as Lorenzo Insigne has worked his way back into the team, but Minnesota is just a more talented side at nearly every position. Loons to win.
Atlanta United to Win + ATL/NE O 1.5
+110
New England travels to the ATL on Saturday and while the Revs did find a win against Red Bulls in Week 6, they’re still an abysmal offense. They’ve totaled just 4.3 xG through the first seven weeks and are even underperforming that number with three goals scored. Tomas Chancalay and Leo Campana are nearing a return and made the trip to Atlanta, but only Chancalay is expected to play minutes off the bench. Atlanta on the other hand are finding their goal scoring form, racking up seven goals over their last three games. They’re heavy moneyline favorites, so we’re adding the over 2.5 total goals in this match (which by itself is -200) to the ticket to make this a plus-money endeavor.
NYCFC
ML +110
Bird week? Bird week. Consider the Pigeons, who are plus-money favorites at home against the Philadelphia Union. Not only are Kai Wagner (who missed last week’s match) and Andre Blake questionable for this one, but the Union also traded their star midfielder Daniel Gazdag to Columbus this week. While Philly certainly has capable replacement options to fill all three of those slots, we’ll ride with NYCFC at home against the uncertainty of the visiting team.
Austin FC
ML +290
Nearly three-to-one for our favorite team to pull off another road win? Sign us up. Of course, we understand the challenges of traveling to BC Place, a venue where Austin FC has never won. But what better time than now? Vancouver is coming off of their midweek CONCACAF triumph, where they played at altitude less than 72 hours before kickoff of Saturday’s clash. They’ll also be without important names like Ryan Gauld and Jayden Nelson in addition to any rotation we may see.
Note: Once injury reports for the three Sunday matches are released on Saturday afternoon, we may add picks for those games. Check back in then if you’re interested!
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 8 shouts.
Kelvin Yeboah +160
Patrick Agyemang +300
Kevin Denkey +165
Myrto Uzuni +360
Brandon Vazquez +300
Denis Bouanga +155
Gabriel Pec +185
To Score 2+ goals
Brandon Vazquez +2200 (0.5 U)
Myrto Uzuni +3000 (0.5)
To Score Or Give Assist
Miguel Almiron +100
Emil Forsberg +180
Osman Bukari +180
David Da Costa +200
Marcel Hartel +150
Results
Last Week: -3.85 U
Season: +13.5 U
