Week 9 MLS Picks
Week 8 was weird! We found success on Underdog but took a bath at the books. Luckily, we had such a strong start to the season we’re still above water across the board as we cross the quarter-mark of the MLS regular season on Saturday.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 9 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Last week, we had a big win thanks to some garbage time desperation shots from Emil Forsberg. Now with double digit units of profit in our accounts, we try to grab the elusive back-to-back victory. Let’s head to the board!
A trio of shots attempted props comprises this week’s entry. We start with Chucky Lozano, whose shots attempted line is set at 2.5. San Diego are on the road this Saturday taking on a strong Charlotte FC side who are a perfect 4-0-0 at home this season. But we’re not taking SDFC to get a result, we just need Lozano to shoot. This line is too low for both his rates in MLS this season and looking back through his previous stint with PSV. Lozano missed a few weeks earlier this season due to injury, but in his 285 minutes with San Diego he’s averaged 3.79 shots per 90 minutes. He’s over this number in three of his five appearances this season, with one of the two misses being the game he sustained a first half injury and was subbed off. With PSV from 2023-2025, Lozano averaged an even more impressive 4.34 shots per 90 in a 1,825 minute sample. To get this line at 1.19x is extremely strong.
Next we’re headed to Philadelphia where the Five Stripes are trying to jump start their season after a lackluster start has them on nine points through eight matches. Miguel Almiron’s shot attempts line is set at 1.5 and similar to Lozano, this number is just too low, even with Atlanta as road underdogs. Almiron is averaging 2.6 shot attempts per 90 minutes this season in his return to MLS and over his 5,770 career minutes with Atlanta he averages 3.59 per 90. Of course, he spent the last seven years in the Premier League, but even at the top of the sport, Almiron averaged 1.84 shot attempts per 90 with Newcastle from 2018-2025 across 12,510 minutes. On his career he’s at 2.34 over 20,486 minutes and has been over this number in three straight.
Staying in that game to close out the entry and flipping to the Philly side of things. One-time Austin FC rumored forward Bruno Damiani has stepped in to fill the void in the Union starting XI left by the Daniel Gazdag trade last week. His newfound opportunity combined with the rates he’s been putting up in mostly a reserve role this season make this a very attractive option. Damiani is averaging 4.53 shots per 90 across his 338 MLS minutes this season and has gone over this number in all three of his starts so far with Philadelphia. To have a 1.1x multiplier on this prop feels really advantageous for us.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 7.85x your entry fee if successful.
A new feature we’re adding this week is some additional plays that can be substituted in place of the props given above if you miss lock for one of those games or one of those options doesn’t start. The additional plays this week that we’re fine using in any entry are as follows.
John McCarthy O 1.5 goals allowed
Patrick Schulte O 1.5 goals allowed
Aaron Herrera O 0.5 shots attempted (1.19x)
Kevin Denkey O 2.5 shots attempted (1.1x)
Denis Bouanga O 3.5 shots attempted (1.19x)
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): +4.77 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +11.43 U
Week 9 Picks
Austin FC
ML -120
Keeping it simple with our favorite team to begin the Week 9 slate as Austin FC will host the defending MLS Cup Champion LA Galaxy in the first match of the weekend. No pomp or frills, just a straight up moneyline winner. The Galaxy have yet to find victory in MLS play and are going to be approaching this game with some desperation, but ATX just got their asses handed to them in Vancouver and are likely to match that intensity. As biased homers, they better!
INter Miami
ML +180
Messi and Co. travel to Columbus to take on the new-look Crew, who may have Daniel Gazdag in the starting XI. But Miami has no midweek match to plan for this coming week and the “big four” are off the injury report. With both teams having aspirations of winning the Eastern Conference, this is a big match with significant implications at the top of the table, as Inter Miami sits just three points behind first place Columbus with a game in hand. We’re never going to pass up the opportunity to bet on Messi, Suarez, Alba and Busquets at this number.
Seattle Sounders To Win + SEA/NSH O 1.5
+115
The Sounders got some good news late in the week that the injury scare to Albert Rusnak was not as serious as initially feared. He’ll be available for selection along with Jordan Morris and new arrival Ryan Kent. Nashville on the other hand is traveling to the West Coast for a mid afternoon kickoff without Walker Zimmerman, who is still in concussion protocol after the scary head injury suffered against Charlotte two weeks back. They’ll struggle to score in Seattle, while also being more vulnerable than normal without Zim anchoring the back line. We’ll tack on the over 1.5 total to take this pick to plus money.
FC Cincinnati
ML +185
Evander is off the injury report and immediately becomes the best player that is expected to set foot on the pitch at Solider Field on Saturday night. They’ve been flying without him, winning both matches during his absence and currently on a four match unbeaten streak. The Fire have been promising this season, at least relative to past expectations, but this is a nice number to back one of the most talented sides in the league on the road. Cincy to win.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 9 shouts.
Myrto Uzuni +190
Lionel Messi +125
Luis Suarez +210
Christian Benteke +160
Emmanuel Latte Lath +175
Bruno Damiani +175
Djordje Mihailovic +330
Luca Orellano +265
Denis Bouanga +240
Chicho +140
To Score 2+ goals
Myrto Uzuni +1200 (0.5)
Denis Bouanga +1600 (0.5 U)
To Score Or Give Assist
Osman Bukari +125
Results
Last Week: -9.35 U
Season: +4.15 U
