Match Preview - FC Dallas
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:39pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has a record of 2W-5L-2D against FC Dallas in all competitions.
Last season FC Dallas won the first and third meetings between the two clubs, both 1-0 results where Dallas scored against Austin after they were down a man. Austin FC won the second matchup in 2023 by a 3-0 score line.
FC Dallas Recent Form
It’s been a bit of a bumpy start for our rivals to the north. They lost DP winger Alan Velasco late last season to a torn ACL just about a month after 22-year-old defender Geovane Jesus went down with the same injury. To make matters worse they’ve been taking on more water to start the year, with Paxton Pomykal ruled out for the year with knee cartilage damage this week along with missed time for injury or otherwise from Jesus Ferreira, Petar Musa, Asier Illarramendi and even MLS SuperDraft pick Logan Farrington.
Musa was the marquee acquisition this offseason (more on him in a bit) but the Dallas offense has sputtered out of the gate. They’ve scored and conceded an identical five goals for and eight against, just like Austin FC, although they’ve played one less match than the Verde & Black. They’ve managed just one win from their four matches, even with three of those games being played on their home turf.
As we mentioned above, FC Dallas has owned this head-to-head rivalry by the numbers, but this I-35 showdown has swung more in Austin’s favor over the last year-plus. Austin got their first win in the rivalry in the Western Conference semifinals in 2022. They dropped two of the three games last season but not only did both Dallas wins come against 10-man Austin sides, Dallas hasn’t scored on an 11-man Austin FC in their last 237 minutes of play.
That streak can end in an instant with this Dallas attack. The three headed monster of Musa, Ferreira and Paul Arriola can create dangerous chances at the drop of a hat. Dallas can also be very staunch at the back. Goalkeeper Marten Paes is a top talent in net and allowed just 37 goals in 2023, the third lowest total of goals conceded last season. Center backs Nkosi Tafari, Sebastien Ibeagha and Sam Junqua all stand between 6’ and 6’4”. Despite winning Copa Tejas two years running, Austin FC still has their hands more than full with FC Dallas.
Austin’s Recent Form
After finding the back of the net four times in two games, the Verde & Black reverted back to being completely anemic on offense last week on the road against Orlando City. Austin is now winless through their first five matches in 2024 and has just one win in their last 16 league matches. Remember that 17 matches is half of an MLS regular season schedule.
We’ll try to glean any positives we possibly can in a moment, but just to further illustrate just how bad (historically so in some cases) the Austin FC offense has been over the first month of the season, here are some stats for you.
Austin has eight total shots on target through five matches. Five less than the next lowest team (Nashville, 13). That’s 1.6 shots on target per 90 minutes. That figure across a full season would be the lowest rate in MLS history.
Austin has the second lowest shot on target percentage in MLS at 25.0%, above only Real Salt Lake.
Austin has the lowest shots on target per 90 minutes in MLS. They’re 0.6 SOT/90 lower than the next lowest team and a full 1.8 SOT/90 less than the 27th ranked team.
Austin is last in the league in expected goals (xG) with 3.4 xG through five matches. Eight teams have played one less match than Austin.
Austin has the least amount of progressive carries in MLS among teams with five or more matches played. Progressive carries are carries that move the ball towards the opponent’s goal line at least 10 yards from its furthest point in the last six passes, or any carry into the penalty area. Progressive carries also exclude any carries that end in the defensive half of the pitch.
Austin has the least amount of progressive passes in MLS among teams with five or more matches played. Progressive passes are passes that move the ball towards the opponent’s goal line at least 10 yards from its furthest point in the last six passes, or any pass into the penalty area. Progressive passes exclude passes that end in the defensive 40% of the pitch.
Austin has 55 total shot creating actions through five matches, 17 less than the next lowest team among those with five or more matches played. Shot creating actions are the two offensive actions leading directly to a shot, such as passes, take-ons and fouls drawn. They’re also behind every team that has played at least four matches. Austin’s shot creating actions per 90 are 3.4 less than the next lowest team.
So, how in the world can we be positive about anything after all of that? It might be grasping at straws, but we’ll take some swings. First, Austin has been better at home compared to on the road in the small five game sample size we have. While just 60% of their games have been at home, Austin has recorded 84.3% of their total shots, 75% of their shots on target and 94.2% of their total xG at Q2 Stadium.
Now, none of that has resulted in an actual victory for the Verde & Black, so it’s fair to still have high levels of doubt headed into this Saturday’s match. But there’s little doubt that the team has performed better in front of the home crowd relative to the lifeless amoeba they’ve been on the road.
Austin will also welcome Dani Pereira and Julio Cascante back to the fold after being away on international duty. Cascante has been one of the bright spots for Austin early on, but Pereira has been the one to shift the tide for Austin in a few of these matches. Both in the opener against Minnesota United and the last home match against Philadelphia Union, head coach Josh Wolff slid Pereira further back in the midfield to assist with the offensive build up and voila, the Austin offense was able to control tempo and maintain possession in those matches after the adjustment. I’ve got my fingers crossed that we see Pereira start for either Valencia or Ring on Saturday.
Lastly, I think we see Sebastián Driussi play his first full 90 of the season. He went nearly 70 last week in Orlando and said post-match that he felt good. If he can play the whole match and be a bit more in-tune with his teammates up front, especially new acquisitions like Jáder Obrian and Diego Rubio, I think we’ll see Austin exceed the historically low offensive bar they’ve set for themselves in 2024. Hell, maybe Obrian gets some revenge against his former team after they cast him into the re-entry draft this winter, where ATX subsequently scooped him up. It would add some additional fuel to this already feisty rivalry to see Obi get his first goal contribution after a productive preseason.
Injury Report
ATX – Žan Kolmanič (Out – Hamstring) Leo Väisänen (Out – Foot)
DAL – Logan Farrington (Questionable – Knee), Jesús Ferreira (Out - Hamstring), Asier Illarramendi (Out – Adductor), Paxton Pomykal (Out – Knee), Alan Velasco (Out – Knee), Geovane Jesus (Out – Knee)
Updated: 4:46pm CT Friday March 29
FC Dallas Players To Watch
Petar Musa – The former Benfica striker profiles as the type of designated player that Austin FC fans would love to see arrive in the summer transfer window. Musa became a club record signing after FC Dallas shelled out $9.7 million for his services, a number that could reportedly rise to $13 million with add-ons. Musa has only recorded one goal through 270 minutes after missing the opener for his wedding in Europe, but he’s arguably been the best player for the club during their disappointing start to the year. The chemistry between Musa and Ferreira should only get stronger as the season progresses, let’s hope they’re still a bit disjointed this Saturday.
Dante Sealy – Sealy’s background is pretty cool. His father, Scott Sealy, is a former FC Dallas forward and Trinidad and Tobago international, which allowed Dante to join the FC Dallas academy when he was 8 years old. Originally signed as the club’s 25th homegrown player in 2019 at the age of 15, he spent his first season under contract on loan with North Texas SC, then of USL League One, where he posted 1G/3A in 19 appearances to help NTSC win the inaugural USL League One title. He was loaned to PSV Eindhoven in 2021, where he played in 54 matches for PSV’s U-21s, scoring six goals. He logged 280 minutes across 10 appearances back home in Texas last season and now still just 20 years old, he’s secured a starting spot as a left wingback for FC Dallas in 2024. Sealy scored in the season opener and has played 350 minutes through four matches. His story is one we’d love to see in the future for products of the Austin FC academy.
Nkosi Tafari – Another example of a player pathway we’d like to see down the road in Austin. Tafari was the 14th overall pick in the 2020 MLS SuperDraft. Being able to develop talent out of the draft, at least with a pick other than the first overall, is something Austin appears to have a lot to learn about. Tafari has started 63 of the 83 matches he’s appeared in during his FC Dallas tenure, including a career high 27 starts last season. He scored three goals and added four assists, helping Dallas to the seventh seed in the Western Conference and a playoff berth. He’s the centerpiece of this Dallas defense and is an added threat on set pieces (on both ends) with his 6’4” 190lb frame.
Austin’s Keys To The Game
Eyes Forward – Austin fans should hope that everyone involved with the team on the pitch this Saturday night has been keeping their attention focused on what’s coming rather than dwelling on recent disappointments. Tune out the well-deserved complaints from Austin fans and ignore the ridicule from other MLS fanbases who haven’t hesitated to point out just how bad it’s looked. There’s nothing they can do about the abysmal start to the season, that’s in the rearview mirror now. MLS isn’t going to press pause on the season until everything is just right for ATX and no team, especially FC Dallas, is going to feel sorry for Austin’s struggles. There are 29 games remaining this season and plenty of time to right the ship. Keep those eyes forward on what lies ahead.
Lean In – What lies ahead is the first rivalry game of the season. Anytime a Copa Tejas match takes center stage, there’s an added level of anticipation and passion buzzing around Q2 Stadium. Expect a loud and boisterous FC Dallas contingent in the upper Northeast corner, with random red shirts littered throughout the rest of the stadium. Bet on La Murga turning the decibels up to dangerous levels in the South End to not just will the team on to victory, but to help drown out any Dallas supporters with the most raucous wall of sound you can find in MLS. To the players, lean in. Lean into the passion, lean into the distaste. Embrace the rivalry.
Keep It Clean – Over the last 17 months, Dallas has only found the back of the net against a shorthanded Austin team. Do we expect this trend to continue forever? Of course not. But what must stop is the game changing mistakes for Austin. Be mindful of a smart Dallas squad who baited those mistakes last year, a side that is surely looking at the two penalties Austin has conceded so far this year and thinking they can grab a third. Steering clear of aiding Dallas with preventable mistakes has been a pretty darn good recipe for Austin to find success against this team over the last five meetings.
The North End’s Predictions
ZG – Austin FC 2-1
E – Austin FC 2-0
