Match Preview - Houston Dynamo
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:40pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 7W-3L-0D against Houston Dynamo.
These two teams have already met twice this season, with the Verde and Black taking all six available points on the back of 1-0 victories in each match. Austin FC continues to be the dominant team in this intrastate head-to-head series, winning first, last and most. In fact, the Houston Dynamo franchise has taken exactly zero (0) points in their history when playing in Austin. The first and second teams for ATX have a combined record of 8W-0L-0D against the two professional sides from H-Town.
Houston Dynamo Recent Form
As much as I love typing out the paragraph above, the Dynamo have straight up been having a better time than Austin in 2024. With five matches remaining for each club in the regular season, Houston sits a full ten points above Austin in the Western Conference standings. They’ve won four of their last seven league matches, including a road win against LAFC and a 4-1 thrashing of second place Real Salt Lake last Saturday. For good measure, they also played LAFC to a draw in Houston two weeks ago.
Like Austin, the Dynamo also brought in some key reinforcements during the summer transfer window in the form of designated player Ezequiel Ponce and U22 Initiative signing Lawrence Ennali. While Ennali unfortunately tore his ACL shortly after his debut for the club, Ponce has overtaken fellow DP striker Sebas Ferreira for the starting spot. Ponce has integrated well, scoring three goals in his first six appearances with the team.
Houston is led in scoring by Ibrahim Aliyu, a speedy left winger who has played all 180 available minutes against Austin this season. Aliyu has six goals to his name, but hasn’t found the back of the net since July 3 against Real Salt Lake. The 22-year-old Nigerian has developed into a dynamic (heh) piece of the Houston attack and his five assists are tied for second on the team. They’re led in assists by Amine Bassi’s seven dimes, just a year removed from when Bassi himself led the team in scoring with ten goals.
The Dynamo will be without their highest paid player however, as Hector Herrera is sidelined for at least two more weeks with a hamstring injury. They’ve got plenty of depth to pick up the pieces in their midfield though, with the likes of Bassi, Coco Carrasquilla, Latif Blessing and Artur, who is one of the more underrated defensive midfielders in MLS.
Speaking of defense, the back line has been the calling card for Houston in 2024. They’re second in the league in goals conceded per match at 1.1, trailing only the defending MLS Cup and Leagues Cup champions Columbus Crew. They also lead the league in possession, averaging a massive 60% per game and are tied with Austin FC with seven clean sheets this season. It will be interesting to see how the Dynamo approach their third game in eight days in a hostile envionment at Q2 Stadium. Will they try to control the pace and possession or will they sit back and allow Austin to have the ball, preferring to hit them on the counter as so many teams have found success doing over the years? One thing is for sure, the Dynamo are going to be hungry to come into central Texas and shut fans like me up with their first ever win at Q2 Stadium.
Austin FC Recent Form
Well, it could have been way worse! After Austin FC got us all excited for about 45 minutes with a late first half goal to take the lead over LAFC at the break late Wednesday night, they were able to hold on for a 1-1 draw. We discussed the unlikely (but still achievable) path to the playoffs in the preview article to that match and finding at least two points from the three remaining matches on the road was one of the keys to that “dream” scenario.
Unfortunately, ATX could end up getting to the 45-point mark we’ve been pointing to all season and still not get any postseason action. If Minnesota United doesn’t cooperate by dropping points in their spot above Austin, it could all be for naught. But the team can’t really worry about those around them, they have to take care of their own business by banking as many points as they possibly can and let the chips fall where they may.
Luckily, we here in The North End don’t have to keep said blinders on. In that article earlier this week I pointed out that Austin would have to bank 11 points over their final six matches to get up to 45 points total for the season and probably nab a berth into the wild card game. Upon further review, I’m not so sure that number shouldn’t have been 12. Minnesota lost on Wednesday and remains on 39 points (four ahead of ATX) with five games remaining. A quick check of their schedule shows two remaining home games (COL, STL) and three road games (SKC, RSL, VAN). For the purposes of us worrying about scenarios, let’s give the Loons victories over the two teams below them in the standings, Sporting KC on the road this weekend and against St. Louis City at home on decision day. That would put the Loons on 45 points and a very important number of 13 wins to end the season.
Why so important? Because in MLS, the first tiebreaker in the standings is total wins instead of the more traditional goal differential. You’re probably picking up what I’m putting down here. If we stuck with the 11-points in six games goal for Austin FC that we talked about earlier in the week and ended on 45 points, the Verde would be out of a wild card spot on that wins tiebreaker with just 12 wins. Of course, there could be (and it’s maybe even likely that) some chaos is introduced. The Loons could crater over the final month and pick up less than the six points we’re affording them here.
But let’s recalculate. To clear the potential “45-points and out-on-tiebreaker” scenario, Austin FC still needs 11 points from their final five matches. I’m probably just huffing some premium hopium over here, but I’ll point you back to what I highlighted earlier this week. As distant as it feels, Austin FC has scored 12 points in a five game stretch this season, from March 30 to April 27. They also stacked up 13 points in a six game stretch (what we think they’d need to including the draw against LAFC on Wednesday) in that early portion of the season from April 20 to May 18. And because I’m bringing those facts back around, I also feel obligated to once again point out that the opponents during both of those stretches were not nearly as strong as the five teams remaining on Austin’s schedule.
Easier said than done, but here’s the path. Win your three remaining home games against Houston, Real Salt Lake and Colorado, there’s nine points. Then you either win one of your two remaining road matches against Portland or LA Galaxy, or pick up a point in both. That’s a tall task, considering that those two teams have played a combined 30 home matches this season, winning 20 of them while losing just three. But, as I take another huff of the hopium, Austin FC has looked much better on the road since the summer reinforcements hit the pitch, with a win over Nashville, a disappointing loss to Toronto where the team generated a season high xG number, and a draw this week against LAFC. Crazier things have happened!
The chase continues on Saturday. Austin should be the fresher team overall, as they’re expected to welcome back their talisman midfielder Sebastián Driussi and mainstay Brendan Hines-Ike to the starting XI. They’ll also have the services of Jhojan Valencia, with all three of those players returning from yellow card accumulation suspension. There is concern about the availability of Mikkel Desler, who left Wednesday’s match early due to an ankle injury. Matt Hedges, who had started seven straight matches before getting injured against Toronto, is also out for this match. It will be interesting to see who gets the nod for ATX, especially on the back line.
Injury Report
ATX:
Matt Hedges (Out - Hip)
Mikkel Desler (Questionable - Ankle)
HOU:
Hector Herrera (Out - Hamstring)
Lawrence Ennali (Out - Knee)
Nelson Quinones (Out - Knee)
Houston Players to Watch
Ezequiel Ponce - The 27-year-old Argentinian striker was added as the team’s third designated player in the summer transfer window and has hit the ground running with his new club. Ponce has three goals on ten shots on target in his six appearances. We probably shouldn’t throw stones from our own glass-DP house considering Austin’s history with the special roster designation but we also can’t help but point out that one of their three DP’s, striker Sebas Ferreira, is now in a bench role backing up Ponce. Due to the double game week it wouldn’t be a shock to see Ferreira start and play at least a half before giving way to Ponce.
Coco Carrasquilla - With Herrera out due to his hamstring injury, Carrasquilla will be playing an even more integral role in the Houston midfield than normal. He’s given Verde fans (especially E) fits over the years for both club and country. Limiting the effectiveness of the 25-year-old Panamanian will be key in slowing down the Dynamo offense.
Steve Clark - Clark has long been one of the best players for Austin FC at Q2 Stadium. Even though he’s never suited up once for the Verde and Black, it sure seems like he’s on our side when he comes to town. Through five career games at Q2, Clark has given up 14 goals as a member of both Portland Timbers (2021) and Houston Dynamo (2022-24), with Austin FC winning all five matches. Keep it up Steve! Can’t wait to see you in The North End again on Saturday.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Respect the Rivalry - There’s no Copa Tejas on the line for this one, as Austin FC let the three-peat slip away up in Dallas back in July. But there’s a reason why we have the words “Fuck Houston” prominently displayed on our intro to every episode. It’s very simple, fuck the Houston Dynamo! Everything about them is garbage and if Austin FC is going to end up coming up short in their wild card chase over the next month, this is the one match that I demand three points from as a fan.
Let Us Do The Reposting - Driussi made all the headlines after Wednesday’s draw against LAFC for what he was doing on Twitter during the second half. If you haven’t seen yet, Austin’s highest paid player decided to re-post a bunch of tweets from fans who were talking crap about him, Josh Wolff and the team. The posts were removed shortly after the post-match press conference where the media made coach Wolff privy to the social media activity, but the distraction was already in place. I’m hoping that Seba was just using the posts as fuel for his competitive fire and that we’re about to see the game of the season out of number ten. Do that, and you can cup your ears, look at us fans with angry eyes and kick the advertising boards in the south end all you want. Just let The North End and the rest of the Austin FC faithful do the shit-posting and keep your focus on the field!
Predictions
ZG - 3-1 Austin FC
E - 1-0 Austin FC
