Match Preview - LAFC
Game Info
Kickoff: 2:54pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: BMO Stadium - Los Angeles, CA
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 2W-7L-2D across all competitions against LAFC.
With how bad 2024 was for our favorite team, ATX somehow took two points off of the top seed in the Western Conference. I’d argue that it should have been four, if not for the ageless Kei Kamara nodding home an equalizer at the death at Q2 Stadium in mid-June. It was a brief reprieve from the one sided nature of this head-to-head matchup that has been dominated by LAFC.
While many Austin FC fans will point to the 4-1 home win over LAFC on August 26, 2022 as a high point of their fandom over the first four seasons, it would be a shock if you could find an opposing fan that thinks twice about Austin. The aggregate score between these two teams through their first 11 meetings is 22-11 in favor of LAFC. Take out that magical night in 2022 and it’s a drastic 21-7.
But hope has returned to Central Texas. Austin FC has a much more talented team than they have had at any point during this one-sided “rivalry” and LAFC will be on short rest this Saturday. Let’s get into what LAFC has going on early in the 2025 season before taking a look at what to expect from our boys in Verde and Black.
LAFC Recent Form
As ZG and I talked about on Episode 206, this club is one of the most successful in MLS since they joined the league back in 2018 (and we’re a little jealous of it if we’re being honest). LAFC has missed the playoffs just once in their history, while finishing first in the Western Conference three times, winning the Supporter’s Shield twice (2019 & 2022) and MLS Cup once (2022). They’ve also finished as runners-up twice in CONCACAF Champions Cup (2020 & 2023), runners-up in Leagues Cup (2024) and won the US Open Cup last season.
Through three league matches LAFC sits in fifth place in the Western Conference. They have secured wins over NYCFC and Minnesota United before dropping a match 5-2 at the hands of the Seattle Sounders. Don’t let their -1 goal differential trick you, LAFC did not concede a goal in their first two MLS matches until giving up those five goals to Seattle when both clubs were heavily rotated due to CONCACAF Champions Cup schedule congestion. Speaking of CCC, LAFC played their second leg against Columbus Crew on Tuesday night and despite dropping that match 2-1, advanced on aggregate by a 4-2 scoreline. Most of their first choice starters played the full 90 minutes, so we could see significant rotation again from LA this Saturday.
As they usually are in any given transfer window, LAFC CSO John Thorrington and his staff were quite busy this offseason. LAFC’s roster turnover is one of the highest in MLS year over year and Thorrington is so good at replenishing the club’s cap sheet and talent that MLS executives voted him the league’s top GM in The Athletic’s annonymous annual survey last week Because of how active this club is, it’s easier to just condense this to a list of the notable outbound names from this offseason:
Eduard Atuesta - A focal point of LAFC’s midfield ended up in Orlando after his loan from Palmeiras to LAFC expired.
Mateusz Bogusz - One of LAFC’s most prominent attacking players who came into his own last season, Bogusz was sold to Cruz Azul for over $10 million.
Omar Campos - The former U22 Initiative left back joined Bogusz at Cruz Azul on a $3.8 million transfer.
Jesus Murillo - A dominant and physical defender at the MLS level, Murillo left on a free to FC Juarez after five seasons with LAFC.
Cristian Olivera - The Uruguayan attacker, who was another key player in LAFC’s recent success, was sold to Brazilian club Gremio for $4.3 million.
Ilie Sanchez - Now the captain of Austin FC after departing LAFC in free agency.
Carlos Vela - LAFC legend and 2019 MLS MVP was not re-signed after a brief return to the club last year.
On the flip side, here is a list of notable additions for LAFC coming into 2025:
Mark Delgado - Joins LAFC in an intra-league trade from cross-town rival LA Galaxy. A high-quality midfielder who can play box-to-box and won the 2024 MLS Cup with the Galaxy in December.
Jeremy Ebobisse - “The Dreaded Ebobisse” (as he is known in The North End) arrives via free agency from San Jose and has taken the starting striker position from a disappointing Olivier Giroud.
Odin Thiago Holm - Joins on loan from Celtic FC. Holm is a midfielder who is a rising star in Norway and was a marquee acquisition for LAFC.
Igor Jesus - Joins as a U22 initiative player. Originally from Brazil, Jesus arrives to MLS from one of Portugal’s top teams, Estrela Amadora, as the replacement for Ilie Sanchez in the defensive midfield.
Artem Smolyakov - Another U22 Initiative signing, the Ukranian is the heir apparent to Campos’ role at left back.
Nkosi Tafari - Austin fans are quite familiar with Tafari from his days in Friso. He is one of the most athletic defenders in the league, a beast in the air, and an experienced veteran adding even more quality depth to one of the top back lines in MLS.
Cengiz Ünder - LAFC’s new Turkish DP arrives in MLS with a laundry list of stops at some of the top teams in Europe. Came on as a second half sub and gave an assist in his debut on Tuesday night against the Crew. His loan expires in the summer, with the rumor mill saying his spot is reserved for Antoine Griezmann should he decide to come stateside.
Yaw Yeboah - After scoring the game-winning goal in the 2023 MLS Cup for Columbus against LAFC, Yeboah heads west to join a loaded LAFC roster as wing depth.
LAFC’s head coach, Steve Cherundolo, employs a very direct counter-attacking game plan. The roster is built to withstand pressure from opponents with the incredible depth (including MLS mainstays Aaron Long, Ryan Hollingshead and Sergei Palencia) on the back line, then strike fast on the counter with an equally impressive attack.
The midfield was really the lone question mark for this roster headed into the 2025 season, but they’ve passed the eye test early on. Delgado has been able to provide a calming presence on both ends while some of the younger additions get their feet under them.
Of course, we have to talk about Denis Bouanga, who is one of, if not the most, dangerous player in space in the league (especially if we don’t count some geezer name Lionel Messi down in Florida). Bouanga has three goals already in CCC play, but has yet to get on the scoreboard in the 2025 MLS campaign – don’t expect that to last. On the opposite side of Bouanga is a superstar-in-the-making, 19-year-old Venezuelan prospect David Martinez. He’s one of the best young talents in the league, possesses elite speed, is great on the ball, and has a knack for generating chances. Martinez scored the equalizing goal against ATX last September at BMO Stadium, coming off the bench and terrorizing Austin’s backline.
There’s an embarassment of riches up top, as LAFC has rotated between the struggling Olivier Giroud and the new acquistion Ebobisse to begin the season. LAFC fans have voiced their displeasure with Giroud in 2025, who has yet to score an MLS goal (though he did record one in Leagues Cup and the US Open Cup last year) since arriving in August.
Transition defense is always key against LAFC. Sometimes, as Austin fans have learned the hard way, there’s just not much you can do about a streaking Bouanga charging at your back line flanked by the likes of Ebobisse, Ünder or Martinez. This means limiting turnovers and keeping possession crisp will be imperative for the Verde and Black. Sometimes a good offense is a great defense.
Austin FC Recent Form
If you’re an avid listener of the show, then you know after Austin’s opening night win I was incredibly optimistic about the team being able to head into the LAFC game with more than three points in tow. Games against a shorthanded Portland team on the road and a middling Colorado club at home were the perfect opportunities to secure some much-needed wins before the “real” test with the juggernaut that is LAFC. None of that came to fruition, and Austin fans are down in the dumps a bit after two lackluster offensive performances.
Interestingly enough, Austin’s first three opponents were content with Austin having the majority of the possession and then finding opportunistic moments to hit Austin on the counter. ATX should be getting used to this by now, but LAFC might be the best team in the league at enforcing the structure that allows them to absorb pressure and then counter with pace.
Uzuni is completely in the fold now and that helps the outlook, but the quality of chances generated over these first three games is still cause for concern. Finding avenues into LAFC’s backline will be more difficult than the previous opponents Austin has seen. Austin’s possession style may end up playing right into LA’s hands. Attacking directly and finding angles to force LA’s midfield to focus more on their defensive responsibilities, and in turn limiting their effectiveness on the counter with the press ATX has shown at times early in the year is something I expect to see often on Saturday when the good guys lose possession.
Of course, that is easier said than done, and the disarray in the Austin midfield to this point has not led to creating high-quality chances. This leads many in the fanbase to believe that Austin may make some tweaks to the starting lineup on Saturday and I’m certainly in that camp.
First, we have to start with the injuries that have occurred on the backline. We got word Thursday that Mikkel Desler is out for 6-8 weeks, which sidelines him alongside Julio Cascante. Austin fans have already bore witness to the stark difference in both ability and comfortability on the ball between Svatok and Cascante. Now with Desler missing extended time, the team will be even more hard pressed to find players who can deliver balls that play our speedy players into space.
While Jon Gallagher did an excellent job in his time after subbing on for the injured Desler against Colorado, Desler will be sorely missed in this matchup. He’s shown the ability to create chances on his own or by combining down that right side, but his defensive accumen may be the biggest loss for Austin with Denis Bouanga flying down that flank all afternoon. Gallagher is a more than worthy replacement, but it would feel better if Desler was good to go. Alas, the team will have to adjust.
To make matters worse, Austin is without a clear backup for the right fullback position thanks to the Desler injury. You can write Gally’s name in permanent marker to get the start in place of Desler, but who is the backup option if Jonny goes down or is gassed? Without a fullback who can play on the right side, Austin may be resigned to designating Owen Wolff as the backup/emergency right fullback. We could also see a short-term loan agreement to call-up someone like Riley Thomas or Antonio Gomez from Austin FC II, though this feels less likely than in the past based on Coach Estévez’s comments on Thursday.
As I menitoned earlier I also think we see a change in the midfield. In my perfect world, we would Sabovic getting the start for Dani Pereira. It’s been clear to me that Owen Wolff is in better form to begin the season in most facets. With how LAFC wants to play and how Austin FC needs to play, it would seem logical to me that Dani would be the odd man out if Sabovic were to get the start. Although, this Desler injury may mean that Owen heads to the bench as an emergency option at RB and Sabovic gets the start in his place. No matter who is occupying that midfield, we’re going to need to see improvement from that position group if Austin FC is going to find their footing offensively.
Injury Report
ATX:
Julio Cascante (Out - Hamstring)
Mikkel Desler (Out - Hamstring)
LAFC:
Olivier Giroud (Out - Leg)
Marlon (Out - Leg)
Lorenzo Dellavalle (Out - Thigh)
LAFC Players to Watch
Denis Bouanga - The engine that makes LAFC’s offense hum, Bouanga has racked up 72 goals for in 113 matches for the club. He is one of the premier players in MLS and is borderline unguardable in one-on-one situations in space. He consistently applies pressure to any defense and is unselfish in distribution, on top of having a daft touch for finding the back of the net. It will take multiple efforts from multiple players to limit the impact that Bouanga has on this game.
David Martinez - The 19-year old Venezuelan is a dynamic threat on the right wing and in his second season with the team appears to be developing a greater understanding of how to play off Bouanga to find opportunities to score. He pushes the pace and is one of the players LAFC looks for on the counter almost immediately upon gaining possession. Corralling him when he’s on the ball is important, if you can force him to be a playmaker instead of a finisher, LAFC’s offense could sputter.
Cengiz Ünder - On loan from Fenerbahce, Ünder made an immediate contribution against the Crew on Tuesday night, assisting Bouanga’s late goal in their CCC victory. He’s recorded goal contributions in the Premier League, Ligue 1, Serie A and soon MLS. Hopefully he holds off on adding MLS to his resume until next weekend.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
STUUUUUU - Austin is tied with the Vancouver Whitecaps for least number of shots faced in MLS this season with just seven. While credit is due to our back line, who have played admirably, this number is a bit skewed thanks to the opponents Austin has played and the style they have employed. LAFC will generate chances, they will find some great looks and they will be incredibly threatening on the offensive side of the ball. Bradley Scott Stuver has struggled to start this season relative to the high bar he’s set for himself with two goals conceded that could have been handled better. It’s going to be very important for Brad to be at the top of his game if Austin is looking to smash and grab a potential huge three points on the road. He’s done it before at BMO, time to do it again.
Up the Quality - While Austin fans should be encouraged by the amount of shots Austin has generated, the quality of those looks has been lacking. Austin is currently sitting on 3.0 xG (source: FotMob), tied with LAFC and LA Galaxy for 21st in MLS. That means that the 43 shot attempts Austin has thus far have not been highly probable goal-scoring moments. In fact, Austin is third in shot attempts, but tied for 21st in shots on target. The looks need to be cleaner and that begins with smoother transitions from the midfield to the attacking players. Hopefully, a potential Sabovic start can alleviate that issue.
Predictions
ZG - 2-1 Austin FC
E - 3-2 Austin FC
