Week 4 MLS Picks
Got back on track with last week’s picks to nudge us closer to even on the season. With a number of top teams on short rest due to midweek CCC matchups, Week 4 looks a bit daunting. But we’ll sift through the noise to try to find some winners.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 4 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. We came up one Alexandros Katranis shot attempt short of another successful entry in Week 3, let’s get back on track this weekend.
While we’re not taking Austin FC to win in this article for the first time this season, we’ll be getting some Verde exposure on Underdog. Myrto Uzuni got his first start for the club last week and played 70 minutes. If he’s able to go close to the full 90 against LAFC on Saturday afternoon we love this pick. Last season in La Liga 2, Uzuni averaged 1.85 shots on target per 90 in just over 1,400 minutes. The year prior, when Granada was in La Liga, he posted 0.88 shots on target per 90 in 2,400 minutes and three seasons ago (when he won the La Liga 2 golden boot) he recorded 1.39 shots on target per 90 in 3,000 minutes. Austin may not have success getting the ball into the back of the net against LAFC, but Uzuni needing to just put one shot on frame feels good.
We’re going to our Copa Tejas rivals in the picks further down in this article, so we’ll double up on the FC Dallas hopes on Saturday night with Petar Musa higher than 2.5 shots attempted. Dallas will be facing a tired and shorthanded Whitecaps team this weekend and Musa should be able to take advantage. Last season, Musa played 70 or more minutes in 26 games, taking three or more shots in 16 of those games. He also appeared in 17 home matches across all competitions last season, taking three or more shots in 11 of those games. Overall in 2024, he averaged 3.37 shots per 90 minutes, which is right in line with his career average of 3.36 shots per 90 minutes. In his two seasons with Benfica prior to joining FC Dallas, Musa averaged 4.48 and 5.27 shots per 90 minutes, respectively. Both of those seasons totaled about 1,000 minutes, but the volume is there. Let it rip, Petar!
With Messi back in action on Thursday off the bench for Inter Miami, we’re going to go back to picking on opposing goalkeepers, so Brad Guzan come on down! Across the 40 games that Messi has appeared in for Inter Miami that we have stats for, they have scored two or more goals 28 times. Messi has also played against Atlanta five times since joining MLS, with Inter Miami scoring two or more goals in four of those games, with the one time they scored just a single goal being an appearance as a substitute by Messi. As we mention later on, there’s also some extra motivation for Messi and friends, as Atlanta is the team that upset them in the first round of last year’s playoffs. We’ll take the extra 1.06x multiplier cookie and settle in on Sunday night to hopefully see our Week 4 entry turn green.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 6.36x your entry fee if successful.
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1.0 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +7.96 U
Week 4 Picks
NYCFC
Win + O 1.5 (-105)
The Pigeons are back home at Yankee Stadium on Saturday hosting the New England Revolution. The Revs have been terrible to start the season and now they’ll be without DP forward Leo Campana. NYCFC has always been a strong home side, recording 33, 30 and 34 points at home over the last three seasons. As heavy favorites, we’ll pair NYCFC to win with the over 1.5 goals scored in this match to give us a nice and easy -105 to begin our Week 4 action.
FC Dallas
ML +105
Frisco might be a stronger side than we anticipated this season, but either way they’ve got a great matchup tonight. You may be scratching your head at that assertion, considering Vancouver looks like one of the better teams in the Western Conference. But they’re on short rest coming off a midweek upset of Tigres in CCC play and are beat up, with Ryan Gauld and Sam Adekugbe out for this one. With Petar Musa continuing to build chemistry with the dynamic Lucho Acosta, we’ll take our rivals to the north to take care of business and win at home.
St. Louis City SC
ML +125
Another pick we’re steering into due to short rest and key injuries. The Sounders visit St. Louis on Saturday with a whole lot of bad news in tow. Paul Arriola is out for the season with an ACL injury, while Jordan Morris and Pedro de la Vega are both sidelined for 4-6 weeks. Yeimar will also miss this match for a personal reason. Hell, even head coach Brian Schmetzer is questionable with an illness! St. Louis City on the other hand is coming off of a 3-0 thrashing of LA Galaxy last Sunday night. We’ll take them to build on that with a win this weekend at home.
Philadelphia Union
ML -130
The Union are due for a letdown at some point, but it doesn’t look like that’s in the forecast here in Week 4. Philly are one of two teams in MLS that have won all three of their matches thus far and they’ve done it in impressive fashion, with Tai Baribo leading the golden boot race, already finding the back of the net six times! That’s double anyone else in MLS. Nashville are in town on Sunday afternoon and have been mostly toothless to begin the year. We’ll take the Union to keep the momentum going.
Inter Miami
ML +160
Although Miami played on Thursday night down in Jamaica, advancing easily past Cavalier, we’re still going to back them at plus money on this week’s “Sunday Night Soccer”. Messi returned, subbing on for Luis Suarez in the 53’ and scoring a goal just before the final whistle blew. If Messi is going to be active for this one, and it appears that he is, we love getting the most talented team in the league at plus-money. If you want to go down narrative street, this is a revenge spot for Miami, who were upset in the first round of last year’s playoffs by Atlanta.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 3 shouts.
Myrto Uzuni +370
Osman Bukari +450
Petar Musa +140
Ezequiel Ponce +130
Chicho +175
Gabriel Pec +190
Lionel Messi +115
To Score 2+ goals
Myrto Uzuni +3500 (0.5U)
To Score Or Give Assist
Jonathan Bamba +180
David Da Costa +150
Results
Last Week: +1.9 U
Season: -1.8 U
