Match Preview - Orlando City SC
Game Info:
Kickoff: 6:39PM CST
Location: Inter & Co Stadium, Orlando, FL
Watch: Apple TV
All-Time H2H Record:
Austin FC has 0W-1D-0L all-time record against Orlando City SC.
Austin and Orlando City played to a 2-2 draw on May 22nd, 2022 at Q2 Stadium. Orlando City SC jumped out to an early 2-0 lead with goals in the 2nd minute and 22nd minute from Ercan Kara and Ruan, respectively. Austin was able to rally thanks to a 63rd minute score from the spot from Sebastián Driussi and a thrilling stoppage time goal from Moussa Djitte in the fifth minute of second half stoppage time.
Austin FC dominated the stats partially thanks to two Orlando players being shown red cards, commanding 71% possession and posting 3.28xG to Orlando’s 1.76xG.
Orlando City SC Recent Form:
Rock, meet hard place. Orlando City, just like Austin, is off to their worst start in club history. They began their season with a 3-0 victory over Cavalry FC in CCC, followed by a 0-0 draw with CF Montreal in the regular season opener. After thrashing Cavalry FC again 3-1 on February 27th to advance, they ventured to play Inter Messi (whoops, I meant Inter Miami) and got their butts handed to them in a 5-0 whooping. Next up on their CCC schedule was Liga MX powerhouse Tigres, who they played to a very respectable draw in Mexico. Unable to rebound at home, Orlando City dropped a close 3-2 matchup to a surprising Minnesota club who finds themselves atop the Western Conference table. They followed that up with a 4-2 loss to Tigres, which eliminated Orlando City from this year’s CCC.
With their focus fully shifted to the MLS regular season, Atlanta United handed them a 2-0 loss at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia. If you math all that up, Orlando City has a single point heading into this weekend’s game versus Austin FC, with a -8 goal differential in MLS play.
After only finding the net in the Minnesota matchup, Orlando City is sitting on just 2 goals scored to begin their MLS campaign – a far cry from the success that they enjoyed in the 2023 season. As with Austin, context is important. This Orlando team has been through the gauntlet with their CCC matchups and have nothing to show for it. It’s taken the team some time to gel after Junior Urso and Mauricio Pereyra left the team in the offseason. Adding Nico Lodeiro was quite nice, but it’s taken him some time to get acclimated to this new system and big offseason acquisition Luis Muriel (who came over from Atalanta just before the start of the season) has yet to provide the offensive spark that the team was hoping for, as can be seen by their meager 2 goals.
Returning home is always a plus for a struggling club and Orlando surely does not want to find themselves sitting on just a point after their fifth match of the ‘24 season. While the 5 goals they conceded to Miami is inflating their average goals conceded per match number, they have only kept CF Montreal scoreless so far in their MLS matchups.
Things don’t get much better for Orlando City during this international window. They’ll be without a number of key players, including starting keeper Pedro Gallese receiving a call from his native Peru for international duty. The Lions will also be without the services of David Brekalo (defender, Slovenia), Wilder Cartagena (midfield, Peru) Favian Loyola (forward, USA U-19), Duncan McGuire (forward, USA U-23), Abdi Salim (defender, Somalia), along with their best player Facundo Torres (forward, Uruguay).
Let’s start with Facundo Torres, one of the top players in all of MLS, while off to a slow start, is a winger with pace and deft touch. Without him, the Lions have a huge void to fill, one that could have been mitigated if not for Duncan McGuire also receiving a call up for the U-23 USA squad. For a team struggling to generate chances, being without McGuire and Torres is massive.
Pedro Gallese, a keeper selected by The North End Podcast in the Verde Best Ball League, is off to a disastrous start (doh!), but has been one of the top keepers in MLS for the majority of his tenure here. He will be replaced by Mason Stajduhar, a journeyman keeper who has seen spot minutes at MLS NextPro level over the last few years, we assume just to stay sharp rather than a demotion. This is a massive opportunity for Austin. No recap of Orlando City SC’s recent form would be complete without mentioning Austin legend Felipe Martins, a tenacious fan favorite who loves to make the game ugly and never backs down from conflict. He will be a menace, as he was destined to be, but Austin should be familiar with his shithoussery and tactics by now – just leave him alone.
Austin FC Recent Form:
Another match, another opponent who found themselves in CCC for Austin to match up against. This marks the fourth consecutive contest against a CCC-worthy opponent for Austin FC, which is both a blessing and a curse. A blessing thanks to the fact that these clubs have played more matches, experienced more fatigue, and have had challenging schedules to begin their seasons. A curse in the sense that any club qualifying for CCC was a very successful club the previous season. Orlando City SC finished with 63 points last year, trailing only Supporter’s Shield winner FC Cincinnati.
The matchup against Philadelphia Union marked the season debut for Sebastián Driussi, who has been dealing with a hamstring injury, in the 71st minute. The crowd at Q2 was on their feet when number 10 trotted out onto the pitch and while he didn’t disappoint, he also did not look like himself at all. For those who have followed this club since our inception and the arrival of Driussi, it’s easy to know that he’s been our most impactful and talented player since his arrival back in July of 2021. The team goes as El Crack goes. He is the engine to our vessel and the most impactful player on our team every time his boots touch the grass. Rust was to be expected when Seba returned, but his sluggish movements caught my eye in particular. Hammy injuries are no joke and limit your ability to build up the endurance required to provide 90 minutes of service. I do not expect him to start, but I do expect him to see time off the bench. Austin FC needs to hold on as long as they can until 10 can get out their and hopefully provide the heroics that have made him a club legend in the Verde’s short history.
Do you know which team has conceded the most penalty kicks thus far in MLS? Shouldn’t be hard to guess – it’s us. For an undermanned and injured club, this is a huge problem. Bradley Scott Stuver has been a revelation in net who has endured a barrage of shots the likes of which no keeper should have to deal with. Putting him in an even more unforgiving situation by asking him to stop PKs on a weekly basis too? Now that’s just flat out rude.
Speaking of the shots that Bradley Scott Stuver has had to endure, expect to see much more come his way in this game. If I had to guess, I would anticipate Wolff and the staff rolling out the defensive-minded game plan that we saw in Seattle to attempt to steal a point (or three) here on the road. While the opportunity is there for a potential upset, Austin FC will also be without key contributors due to international duty as well. While the list is not as damning as Orlando’s, the Verde and Black will be without Julio Cascante (Costa Rica) and Dani Pereira (Venezuela).
The experiment pushing Dani forward into the attacking third has been a flat-out failure thus far. He has looked uncomfortable and downright lost at times venturing up the field and Austin has seen the tides shift in matchups with Minnesota and Philadelphia once halftime adjustments were made and Dani was shifted further back to help alleviate pressure off the back line and progress the ball forward. This is a looming issue for Austin as I do not expect Driussi to be ready to start this game and provide a minimum of 60 minutes of play. Who will Josh deploy at the 10? If it were me, I’d go with Rubio and rely on Gyasi Zardes at the 9 (as we saw against St. Louis City SC) to provide hold up play while we entrench ourselves in a defensive formation.
With all of that being said, we will need a another wonderful performance from Jhojan Valencia to be at our best. He has been an anchor in front of the back four and will be called upon to act as a guardian before Orlando City reaches the “red zone.” Speaking of the back four, they’ve been our best unit. They’ve looked cohesive, engaged, and disciplined. That discipline will be tested with Julio receiving the call up from Los Ticos. Brendan Hines-Ike should get the start next to Matt Hedges and I expect Guilherme Biro to get another start as well with the hamstring injury to Žan Kolmanič. Is Biro fit for 90? I do not think so. He has often looked tired and gassed, which exposes the team defensively. Who will see time when Biro needs a sub? So far we’ve seen Owen Wolff, Ethan Finlay, and Hector Jimenez all get a shot in the fullback position to some degree, each with varying results. Hector came on and took the world by storm with his contributions against Philly, but I’d be surprised if the coaching staff rolls him out there for more than a half. Fingers crossed that Hines-Ike is 90-minutes fit because if not, this could get interesting (and not in a fun way!).
Injury Report:
ATX - Leo Väisänen (Out - Plantar Fasciitis), Dani Pereira (Out - International Duty), Julio Cascante (Out - International Duty), Zan Komanic (Out - Hamstring)
ORL - David Brekalo (OUT - International Duty), Wilder Cartagena (OUT - International Duty), Pedro Gallese (OUT - International Duty), Favian Loyola (OUT - International Duty), Duncan McGuire (OUT - International Duty), Abdi Salim (OUT - International Duty), Facundo Torres (OUT - International Duty), César Araùjo (Questionable - Ankle), Ramiro Enrique (Questionable - Ankle)
Updated: Friday March 22nd @ 8:30pm CT
Orlando Players to Watch:
Luis Muriel - The highly-touted goal scorer has yet to find the back of net in his short time in Orlando. With the numerous call ups for international duty on this Orlando City roster, he will be called upon to take on a bigger role and provide an elite scoring threat to the anemic Orlando offense. It will be of the utmost importance for Austin to neutralize him early, as his frustrations have begun to mount.
Felipe Martins - He can’t not be included in to this list, as he’s always a blast to watch. We know his tactics and understand how he tries to get into his opponents heads’. It should be interesting to see how he and Diego Rubio deal with one another. Two pit bulls in a small cage – should be fun. Outside of his aggressive defensive style and antagonistic play, he does not provide much on the offensive side of the ball.
Mason Stajduhar - He should get the start in place of Gallesse and will be vulnerable. Fortunate for him, he will be playing in front of his home crowd, which should calm his nerves a bit, but his lack of experience at the MLS level is quite telling. Austin, despite potentially being in a more defensive formation, needs to test him as early as possible to see if he’s shaky. An early spill could lead to Austin getting on the board early and then bunkering down even further.
Austin Players to Watch:
Diego Rubio - He’s on the board with his first career goal for the 512 faithful and let’s hope he keeps that pace. I’ve gushed about how much I love watching this man play countless times on the podcast and I won’t stop now! He is an uncaged animal with a motor the likes of which we have not seen often in Austin. He will be active and aggressive throughout. An early goal from him could be a match-winner for Austin FC. Let’s go Diego!
Matt Hedges - The former MLS Defensive Player of the Year has stood out so far this season. We talked about wanting “80% of what Matt Hedges was” in his prime years on the podcast leading up to the season and to this point I think it’s fair to say he’s delivered on that wish. He’s been formidable as a 1-2 punch with Julio Cascante, but he’ll be without his running mate in this contest. It’ll be very important for him to be vocal and provide support to Hines-Ike as much as possible. If Hedges and Valencia can continue to anchor this defense the way they have to start this season, then I’ll be satisfied with the results.
Jon Gallagher - Jonny G has dusted off his shaky start with back-to-back performances that aren’t quite reminiscent of his torrid start to the 2023 season, but have been impactful nonetheless. We discussed how thin this back line will be without Cascante and Komanič, so expect Gally to shoulder a more intensive workload to make up for the losses Austin will see this week from international duty and injury. Mitigating the impact of Muriel will be a group effort and no defensive group is complete in Austin without the Verde & Black’s lone 2023 MLS All-Star, Jonny G.
Austin’s Keys to the Game:
Reluctantly Rigoni - What choice do we have? He’s one of our DPs. He’s being paid two million dollars and we are thin on talent. We have who we have and unfortunately, Emi, is part of what we have and who we have to rely on. There is just so much opportunity for him to make an impact and the coaching staff has been forcing the issue to try to help him anyway they can – to this point, it hasn’t worked. Nothing has worked. If we can get ANYTHING out of him, it’s a win.
Hold, brothers, HOLD - We’re in enemy territory facing an opponent that is sitting on a single point and is off to their worst start in club history. They may be frothing at the mouth to secure three points at home against an Austin team that nobody fears. I’m predicting similar tactics to our draw in Seattle. All things considered, I’d be fine with that result, as long as this team follows it up with a win at home next week, something Austin has done just once in their last eight home games. HOLD THE LINE! ENGAGE THE HORSESHOE. DO WHAT YOU MUST TO SECURE POINTS.
Predictions:
E - 1-1 Draw
ZG - 0-1 Orlando City SC
