Match Preview - Portland Timbers
Game Info
Kickoff: 9:40pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Providence Park - Portland, OR
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 3W-5L-1D against Portland Timbers.
The Timbers are a storied MLS franchise that will always have a special place in the hearts of longtime Austin FC fans. Portland was the opponent for the Verde & Black’s first ever victory at Q2 Stadium on July 1, 2021 and every time the Timbers pop up on the schedule we have to revisit the highlights from that glorious night. ATX also defeated the Timbers 3-1 at home two months later in that inaugural season, but it’s been all Portland since those first two meetings.
Between August 2021 and September 2024, Austin lost five of six matches against the Timbers, with the outlying result being a shorthanded 2-2 draw at Providence Park (Sebastián Driussi was secretly injured, though fans didn’t find out until the lineup was released) secured by a late Will Bruin equalizer in May of 2023.
ATX was able to steal a win up in Portland late last season off a deflected goal by Dani Pereira, a match that was most well remembered for Oleksandr Svatok’s death stare towards Juan Mosquera. In that game, the epitome of Austin’s “bend, but don’t break” strategy that was implemented early and often in the 2024 campaign was on full display.
Austin was out shot 26 to 7, accumulated a paltry 0.38 xG compared to Portland’s 2.45 xG and created just one big chance to Portland’s four. Pereira’s goal was his only one of the regular season and was the result of a very fortunate deflection that caught goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau off balance.
Both teams are vastly different this season, so let’s take a look at Portland’s offseason.
Portland Timbers Recent Form
Brought into MLS as an expansion side in 2009, Portland won the 2015 MLS Cup and were runners-up in both 2018 and 2021. They also won the “MLS is Back Tournament” in 2020 and have finished atop the Western Conference table twice, in 2013 and 2017 respectively. Austin fans should consider themselves lucky if they’re able to have that type of success over the club’s first 15 years in the league.
Much shorter history lesson this week compared to last, so let’s get to what we’ll see on Saturday. We have to start with the departure of the Timbers’ talisman midfielder, Evander – who was sold to FC Cincinnati for $12 million. The trade was the most expensive cash-for-trade transaction in MLS history, with the caveat that the new cash-for-trade mechanism has been in place for about a month. But hey, $12 million is a big transfer no matter what corner of the globe we’re discussing.
Evander had been Portland’s best player since his debut in March 2023. In 29 games that year, Evander racked up 11 goals to go along with four assists. Last season we saw Evander take a massive leap to MVP candidate and account for 33 total contributions (15 goals & 18 assists), which earned him an MLS All-Star nod.
His counting stats are fantastic, but if you were able to watch Timbers games, including the ones against our beloved Austin FC, then you understand the impact and gravity that Evander commanded whenever the ball was on his foot. He will be sorely missed in Portland.
They didn’t sit on that cash for long however, as the Timbers turned around and brought in Evander’s replacement the day after the trade was reported. Portland tabbed David Da Costa, a 24-year-old Portugese attacking midfielder as Evander’s positional replacement. Da Costa cost Portland just half of their return on Evander, with the Timbers sending a $6 million transfer fee to RC Lens of Ligue 1 in France. Da Costa is tasked with replacing not only the goal-scoring prowess of Evander, but the distribution as well. Replacing a legitimate MVP candidate is a tall task, to say the least.
Da Costa was not the only notable reinforcement the Timbers acquired in the offseason. Portland purchased forward Kevin Kelsy from Ukranian side Shakhtar Donetsk back in the fall for $6 million. Kelsy, who spent the majority of last season on loan with FC Cincinnati, is a massive target physically, standing every bit of 6’4”. He saw early success with Cincy last season to the tune of five goals in his first 11 appearances. His production took a nose dive after that, finishing with six total goals on the season. But at just 20 years old this is a player who has plenty of room to learn, grow, and flourish for the Timbers.
Other notable additions for this season include:
Joao Ortiz - Ecuadorian, defensive midfielder, 28 years old, coming to Portland from Independiente of LigaPro Serie A in Ecuador.
Jimer Fory - Colombian, left wing/wingback, 22 years old, joining Portland from Independiente Medellin of Liga Dimayor I in Colombia.
Finn Surman - New Zealander, center back, 20 years old, signed by Portland last summer from Wellington of A-League Men in Australia/New Zealand, played just one match in 2024.
Ian Smith - American, fullback, 22 years old, drafted by Portland from the University of Denver after spending last summer with Timbers 2, selected 14th in the 2025 MLS SuperDraft.
Of course, the Timbers also lost some important and familiar names. They traded midfielder Eryk Williamson to Charlotte FC for $350k GAM and forward Dairon Asprilla was sold back to his native Colombia last summer. Forward Mason Toye also left in free agency and signed with Sporting KC.
On top of all the turnover on the roster, Portland is dealing with a laundry list of injuries to begin the season, most notably Jonathan “Cabecita” Rodriguez, who had 23 goal contributions in 29 appearances last year. The Timbers will also be missing U22 forward Santiago Moreno (20 goal contributions in 2024), centerback Dario Zuparic (24 starts last season) and potentially U22 fullback Juan Mosquera (started all 34 regular season games in 2024), who was doubtful last week before being available off the bench but ultimately catching the DNP.
Portland was thoroughly embarrassed in their season opening match against Vancouver by a 4-1 scoreline. As you may have guessed, further context paints a more clear picture. A red card to defender Kamal Miller in the 11’ forced Portland to throw their gameplan out the window in favor of bunkering down in an attempt to preserve a result. It wasn’t pretty.
Once Miller departed, Portland conceded twice in fairly quick succession before the halftime whistle blew. The floodgates opened in the second half, as the Whitecaps tagged the Timbers with two additional goals before Antony pulled one back on a broken play in front of the Vancouver goal.
This season, ZG and I are trying to make more time to watch the games of our upcoming opponents to bring our readers and listeners the best preview content possible. Portland started the match in a 3-5-2 look when in possession that saw the two wingbacks, Antony and Fory, in Jon Gallagher-esque roles – pushed up on offense, but required to get back to provide defensive support as Portland shifted to a 5-3-2 when Vancouver was able to turn them over.
This type of role requires a lot of effort and awareness from each player. Both Antony and Fory profile as more forward thinking players than defensive stalwarts, which should provide ample opportunity for Austin’s speedy outside attacking options to catch them off guard in space and on the counter.
At halftime Portland’s gaffer, Phil Neville, inserted Da Costa into the lineup. His presence was felt almost immediately, as Portland was able to generate some threatening chances after the change and had more life to them out of the break. It was never going to be enough but it is worth noting for our purposes, since Coach Neville has already gone on record saying that Da Costa will start versus Austin.
Another hint that Neville provided in his post-match comments was that Ian Smith had “been the best player” for Portland during the preseason and “probably should have started today.” This makes us believe that we’ll see the rookie inserted into the starting XI come Saturday. Our ears perked up when we heard this listening back to the presser. If your best player in training camp has been a rookie defender who you drafted with the 14th pick in the MLS SuperDraft, it’s probably a good indication that your team is in trouble.
I anticipate Portland being aggressive in their approach to this game. There’s little doubt they are looking to turn around the sentiments surrounding the club early on in the season (not that it matters, but Matt Doyle had the Timbers dead last in his Week 1 power rankings) not just from the media but their fans as well.
Note: Starting goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau was ruled out on Friday, forcing Portland to start a backup in net this weekend.
Austin FC Recent Form
As ZG and I discussed on Episode 201, Austin FC did not play a perfect game last Saturday. But the team found a way to secure an important three points at home to start the 2025 campaign off on the right foot. ATX dominated to the eye test, but was only able to put one goal past struggling goalkeeper John Pulskamp.
What did I like from the game versus Sporting KC? I thought Austin looked great in possession. Coach Estévez has outlined that he still wants to play a possession-style game, but allow players more freedom and creativity in their roles than they had under the previous coaching staff. I believe we saw that on display in Week 1, as Austin was able to post 60% possession while still finding avenues to break down Sporting’s low block that they employed for the entire match.
Sporting began the match with their two designated players, Dejan Jovelic and Manu Garcia, on the bench. After they were able to keep Austin off the scoreboard in the first half, head coach Peter Vermes decided to sub in both players to ramp up the pressure and attempt to smash and grab three points on the road. But even after the changes, SKC did not seem too interested in over-extending themselves on the counter against Austin unless a clear chance was on. The Verde & Black did not become impatient, stayed the course and finally broke through thanks to a timely Osman Bukari “header” off an Owen Wolff corner kick in the 76’.
Austin is still not entirely up to speed since Myrto Uzuni, the club’s record signing, was not fit to play in the opener. Continuity and chemistry are still being built with this squad, but it was a refreshing sight to see the team being very communicative and executing on the defensive end when called into action. Possession was crisp and patient, while the team made sure to mix up their advances especially early on, with four different players recording a shot in the first half.
I don’t think much will change in regard to the approach or starting lineup in this weekend’s game with Portland. I anticipate the same starting XI we saw against SKC and a scheme that prioritizes possessing the ball. I’d love to see the team make the most of opportunities generated in the attacking third and finish their final actions with more consistency. Even if it doesn’t start firing on all cylinders this weekend, I expect that consistency to come over time.
Coach Estévez and his staff said during the offseason that lineups and formations could change depending on our opponent, but this Portland team is a side that Austin is just straight up more talented than. There’s no need to get cute. While Portland will be hungry to impress in front of what’s likely to be an anxious home crowd, I just don’t think they have enough to get the job done and we’ll see Austin FC bring home a result.
Injury Report
ATX:
No players listed
POR:
Kamal Miller (Out - Red Card Suspension)
Jonathan Rodriguez (Out - Knee)
Santiago Moreno (Out - Ankle)
Dario Zuparic (Out - Knee)
Juan Mosquera (Out - Lower Body)
Miguel Araujo (Out - Not Injury Related)
Maxime Crepeau (Out - Lower Body)
POrtland Timbers Players to Watch
David Da Costa - Da Costa is the player Portland has tabbed with replacing Evander. When he entered the game against Vancouver at halftime, it was evident that Da Costa elevated his teammates level of play thanks to his ability to distribute and beat defenders in one-on-one situations, creating advantage opportunities even down a man. Da Costa has caps for the U21 Portuguese national team and is excellent both in space and with the ball at his feet. Expect him to start, the ball to be at his feet often and to feel yourself tense up a bit if he gets space to drive at the ATX back line.
Diego Chara - The 38-year old midfielder is an absolute legend for the Timbers, having played in 400 games for the club as of last weekend (the only player in MLS history to play 400 games with one club) and still serves as the team’s captain. While he has certainly lost a step from his prime years, Chara is a smart and crafty player who is still capable of being a defensive force in the middle of the park. He’s one of my favorites I’ve had the pleasure to watch in my four years of MLS fandom. Pairing him with the more offensive-minded Da Costa allows both players to do what they do best.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Keep Building - This may be the first match where Uzuni sees the pitch. We’ll still need to see what this team looks like when at full strength and that obviously includes our club record signing being in a more “regular” role in the coming weeks. But taking that first step of a debut appearance this Saturday would be positive progress in that direction. The chemistry and cohesiveness on the offensive side of the ball was great in Week 1, but I thought the defensive communication and shape was even better. With newly-minted team captain Ilie Sánchez dropping back behind the center backs in the team’s deep build up, the shape was able to be malleable depending on what SKC was throwing at Austin. Communication was great and the team routinely looked for ways to have one another’s back when defending in transition.
Stay the Course - If Portland plays their best game and Austin plays their best game, then the Verde & Black should come out victorious. There’s no need to overextend against this Timbers team and press for a goal. Let the game come to us and take advantage of our opportunities. I’m confident that Austin FC will be able to secure their second-ever victory at Providence Park this weekend.
Predictions
ZG - 2-1 Austin FC
E - 2-0 Austin FC
