Week 1 MLS Picks
The MLS season is here! That means it’s time to begin our betting journey anew after a successful voyage last year that totaled +15.11 units on the season.
Before we get to the picks as normal, we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 1 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Here’s what we’re rolling with in Week 1.
Petar Musa scored 17 goals in 31 appearances across all competitions for FC Dallas last season. Now he’s got former MLS MVP Luciano Acosta feeding him service with Frisco for the 2025 season. Houston’s roster is looking a bit thin at the moment, especially with the sale of Micael last week, who was the anchor of a stout backline in 2024. This is also the first Copa Tejas matchup of the season and Musa acclimated himself to the rivalry (with both opponents) quickly last year, scoring in four of five Copa Tejas matches (including both against Houston) and assisting in the other. At a 1.85x multiplier, Musa to score is our first prop in this entry.
Guilherme Biro loved to work his way into the attacking third at times last season and we’ve seen similar freedom afforded to him in the two preseason matches we had our eyes on out at the Coachella Valley Invitational earlier this month. Biro took 20 shots last season across his 31 appearances (26 starts), including recording at least one shot attempt in six of his final seven games. Another prop at 1.19x that we’ll pop into our entry this week.
Leo Campana started 14 games last season for Inter Miami before being traded to the Revs this offseason where he profiles as an every game option for New England. In those 14 starts in 2024, he played 70 or more minutes in 11 of them. In those 11 games, Campana recorded at least one shot on target in seven of those 11 games. Going back to his 2023 season, the 24-year-old forward recorded at least one shot on target in 13 of 17 games when playing 70 or more minutes. This prop is at a paltry 0.83x multiplier but with the boosts we’ve gotten elsewhere, we’re good with adding it to the entry.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 10.96x your entry fee if successful.
Week 1 Picks
Atlanta United
Over 2.5 (+150)
Perhaps the only MLS team to have a more impressive haul in the transfer market this winter than Austin FC was Atlanta United. After winning the wild card match and then upsetting Inter Miami in the first round of the playoffs, the Five Stripes are going to roll out an attack that consists of Miguel Almiron, Aleksei Miranchuk, Saba Lobjanidze, Mateusz Klich and Emmnauel Latte Lath, who became the new MLS incoming transfer record with a fee of $22 million. Montreal was terrible on the road last season, earning just 14 points in 17 matches and conceding 2.41 goals per game. They also conceded three or more goals 10 times in 2024. We’re gonna buy into Atlanta’s attack finding early chemistry and call our shot on their team total on Saturday.
San Jose Earthquakes
ML +110
The Quakes were historically bad last season and took home the wooden spoon. But an offseason face lift that brought in Bruce Arena as head coach and names like Chicho Arango and Josef Martinez to bolster the attack. They host Real Salt Lake tonight (Chicho revenge spot!), who are coming off a midweek CONCACAF road match against Club Sport Herediano. While we have San Jose on the outside looking in of a wild card spot in our preseason predictions, they should be improved offensively. There’s still major concerns about their defense, but RSL on short rest with no legitimate forward options on the roster after the Elias Manoel news earlier this week feels like a good spot to grab the Quakes at plus-money.
Austin FC
ML -125
To be transparent, we messed up not jumping on this earlier in the week. Austin FC opened at -105 and the line has swung significantly in their favor. We’ve seen some books have this as high at -140 headed into the weekend. Of course with all the hype in ATX leading up to the season, we’re going to get some action on our favorite team in Week 1. We’re not blindly drinking the Verde kool-aid here either. Austin FC has a clean injury report outside of Jimmy Farkarlun who was unlikely to make the matchday roster anyways. Sporting KC is coming in on short rest after being defeated by Inter Miami in a frozen Wednesday night CONCACAF match. Advantage Verde & Black.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 1 shouts.
Denis Bouanga +135
Kelvin Yeboah +220
Hugo Cuypers +240
Leonardo Campana +220
Petar Musa +220
Wilfried Zaha +400
Chicho Arango +170
Ryan Gauld +230
Hirving Lozano +330
To score 2 or more goals
Chicho Arango +1100 (0.5 U)
Hirving Lozano +3000 (0.5 U)
Results
Last season: +15.11 U
2025 Season: Begins Saturday
