Match Preview - St. Louis City SC

Game Info

Kickoff: 7:39pm CT

Watch: Apple TV

All-Time H2H Record

St. Louis City swept the season series in their expansion campaign, defeating Austin FC 3-2 on opening night then drubbing the Verde & Black 6-3 last August.

St. Louis City’S Recent Form

St. Louis City stunned the MLS world last year by starting their expansion season with five straight wins. After the hot start however, they were a .500 team the rest of the season with 12 wins, 12 losses and five draws. Still, that was enough to secure the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs, an amazing feat for an expansion team that was almost unanimously predicted to finish last. Then, almost as shockingly as their season began, St. Louis City was upset in the first round by eight seed (and fierce rival) Sporting KC in an eye opening 2-0 sweep.

Their offseason was relatively quiet, with two key departures in Nicholas Gioacchini and former Austin FC winger turned villain Jared Stroud. The former was sold to Italian side Como 1907 after scoring 10 goals in 32 appearances last season while Stroud was traded (along with center back Lucas Bartlett) to DC United after a career high 10 goal contributions. The marquis offseason acquisition was Nikolas Dyhr, a 22-year-old left back from FC Midtjylland in Denmark. Dyhr made his debut off the bench in the 89’ during last weekend’s 2-0 home victory over NYCFC. Other notable additions were midfielder Chris Durkin, who was the return in the Stroud/Bartlett trade and Tomas Totland, a 24-year-old right back from Norway. Durkin started last weekend’s match after appearing off the bench in the opener while Totland has started both league games at right back.

There was a lot of talk in the preseason about St. Louis City being a regression candidate a la Austin FC in 2023. Loyal listeners of The North End Podcast know that I’ve been saying this is a squad due to crash down to earth at some point since midseason last year, given that they overperformed their xG by a league high 19.1 goals in 2023. I’ve been intrigued by FotMob’s new xPTS model, which indicates that while St. Louis City was the top seed in the West last year, they were actually the team with the least expected points in the conference, even a touch below Austin. The first two weeks haven’t done much to prove the theory that last season’s expansion darlings will get hit with the chilling reality of the dreaded underlying numbers, with St. Louis City sitting on four points from their two matches. They’ll look to continue racking up the early season points this Saturday against Austin FC before a road tilt against the reloaded LA Galaxy next weekend.

Austin’s Recent Form

To say that it hasn’t been pretty through two games for Austin FC might be an understatement. The team has scored just one goal so far that, to be fair (shoutout to anyone who recites this phrase Letterkenny style in their head while reading), was in what amounted to garbage time during the dying moments of the season opener. But it’s not just the lack of offensive creation that has fans worried. The defense has only given up two total goals, but opponents have racked up 45 total shot attempts in 180 minutes of soccer. Not exactly a recipe for success.

That’s not to say the players and coaches don’t deserve some credit for the work they’ve done to keep the ball out of the back of the net, especially in last weekend’s road match against Seattle. We can talk about advanced metrics all we want but giving up less goals is something every Austin fan wanted to see in 2024. There have been tactical adjustments coming into the season that, so far, have limited transition opportunities for opponents, traditionally a big problem for the Verde & Black defense. Even so, we’re still going to point out what both the eye test and underlying numbers are telling us, Austin FC is still getting quite “lucky” through this small two-game sample size. They’re over performing their xGA at the third highest rate in the league, conceding 2.2 less goals than expected thus far, trailing only last year’s wooden spoon winners Toronto FC and Inter Miami in that metric.

What may be more concerning overall is that offense has been even more anemic than the defense has been porous. Without the services of team captain Sebastián Driussi, Austin FC has generated just 1.2 expected goals and taken three total shots on target. The 2022 MVP runner-up is expected to be ready to go in some capacity this weekend (Update: Coach Wolff said Thursday that although Driussi has been training with the team this week, he remains questionable for Saturday’s match) and his debut can’t come soon enough. As frustrating as it is, it’s impossible to get a clear picture of what Austin’s offense can (or can’t) be in 2024 until #10 steps onto the pitch. It still may be a few weeks until he’s fit to play a full 90.

Injury Report

ATX – Sebastián Driussi (Questionable – Hamstring), Leo Väisänen (Out – Foot)

STL – Rasmus Alm (Questionable – Hip), Kyle Hiebert (Questionable – Knee), Josh Yaro (Out – Hamstring), Njabulo Blom (Out - Knee)

Updated Friday March 8 @ 4:18pm CT

St. Louis City Players To Watch

João Klauss – Despite looking like he could be ten years older, the 27-year-old striker is in his prime. Klauss burst onto the MLS scene at Q2 Stadium last season, scoring the game winning goal to shock Austin FC in the opener. He struggled with injury in the middle of the season, limiting him to just 19 appearances and 14 starts. But Klauss was a menace when healthy, piling up 10G/4A in 1317 minutes last year. Expect the striker tandem of Klauss and former San Antonio FC man Samuel Adeniran to give the Austin backline fits all night.

Eduard Löwen – St. Louis have never filled their third DP slot during their short history. It hasn’t really hindered them to this point because the pair of Klauss and Löwen have been deadly when healthy. While he doesn’t wear the armband, Löwen commands the midfield for City, delivering 6G/14A in 2311 minutes last season. Imagine 2022 Diego Fagundez but make him 6’2” and 200lbs. Löwen is a joy to watch when you don’t have skin in the game, but this Saturday I’m more likely to catch myself clenching tensely than pleasantly watching when he’s on the ball.

Roman Bürki – The former Swiss and Borussia Dortmund goalkeeper landed with St. Louis in 2022, playing four matches with their MLS Next Pro side before the first team’s roster was completed for 2023. Bürki, who wears the armband for St. Louis City, was a fringe MVP candidate for the first two thirds of last season. He was far and away the league leader in Post-Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Allowed (PSxG +/-) at +9.1, considered by some to be the best metric we have to assess shot stopping ability. First, Austin has to generate more chances. Then they have to worry about finishing them past one of the top goalkeepers MLS has to offer.

Austin’s Keys To The Game

Next Man Up – You didn’t need to be a rocket scientist to predict that Austin could struggle mightily without Sebastián Driussi, but it’s unlikely that any of us thought it would look this bad. When Austin’s star player missed a month in the first half of last season, the coaching staff made adjustments and players stepped up to fill the void and keep the team afloat in the standings, earning seven points in five league matches including an unexpected road win at Seattle. In my opinion, it’s unlikely we see Driussi start on Saturday considering he missed almost two weeks of full training, but I do expect him to be available for 20-30 minutes off the bench. Regardless of his status, we need to see adjustments from the coaching staff now that we’ve got two games of film, particularly in the midfield. Don’t be surprised to see Dani Pereira further back or Owen Wolff introduced back into the midfield group to help sustain the signature St. Louis City press. Then, no matter who gets the nod, those players must step up and perform. Ugly draws on the road are just fine in this league as long as you win at home, something Austin hasn’t done nearly enough of since 2022.

Deep Breaths – Getting match fit has been a hurdle for some of the new acquisitions, whether they came in at the start of camp like Jáder Obrian, or closer to the start of the season like Diego Rubio and Guilherme Biro. We saw Obrian and Rubio start the Seattle match and I expect them to both get another run out on Saturday. Hopefully another week of training has them ready to push for 70+ minutes and provided some more cohesiveness between them and their new teammates. Fans have also taken notice of Biro’s combination of size, physicality and confidence through his two appearances off the bench. He’s noticeably behind the other two mentioned here in terms of his fitness. Biro looks like he’s a threat to win the left back job from Žan Kolmanič as soon as he’s ready to play 60 or more. We’ll have a better idea on when that might be following his expected shift against St. Louis.

Nobody Panic – As discouraging as the start to the season has been, we are just 6% of the way through the MLS schedule. Every single MLS team has at least one draw or loss on their record already. Remember, Sporting KC didn’t win a match until their 11th regular season game last year. They ended up clinching the eighth seed, defeating top seed St. Louis City and advancing to the Western Conference semifinals. Of course, that’s an extreme example. If Austin FC goes eight more matches without a win (which would take us into the month of May) it will surely be enough for most fans to lose hope and turn on the team with no delusions of a playoff run. I’m still of the mind that this team can do enough to stay afloat until the summer trasnfer window and make a push for a postseason spot in the fall. But with four home games in the next five weeks, Austin FC must begin to string together some results in the friendly confines of Q2 Stadium to keep that prognostication from becoming a punchline.

The North End’s Predictions

ZG – Austin FC 2-1

E – Austin FC 1-0