Week 2 MLS Picks
After a terrible 2023 for our wallets (and an equally poor Week 1), we’re shifting our schedule a bit on how we make our picks going forward. As we talked about on Wednesday’s episode, we’re still going to discuss spots we’re favoring at the tail end of our midweek shows, but we’ll post our picks “officially” after the new standardized MLS injury report is released on Friday evenings. You can find this week’s injury report by clicking here. Let’s dive into the picks for this weekend.
FC Dallas (-115)
It pains us every time we put some cash down on our rivals to do well. But Frisco is expected to regain the services of Jesus Ferreira and Paxton Pomykal, who both missed the opener, as well as new DP forward Petar Musa who is on track to make his MLS debut. After scoring a late winner against San Jose last week, FC Dallas welcome CF Montreal to town. “Le CFM” was the second-worst road team in 2023, grabbing just eight points of a possible 51 and recording a negative 30 goal differential.
Montreal, like a lot of sides this time of year, does look like they made some improvements to the quality of their roster. They played a very talented Orlando City squad to a draw in their road opener last week, but we’ve got Frisco penciled in to prevent them from picking up a second consecutive road result. Give us FC Dallas (sigh) to win.
New York Red Bulls (+210)
Let’s right the vibes ship here. If you took a peek at our preseason predictions for both conferences, you know we’re high on the Red Bulls prospects this year. New acquisition Emil Forsberg looks to be as advertised and Lewis Morgan is making his way back to full fitness. The Red Bulls underperformed their xG by more than 10 goals last year while also letting in 4.6 more goals than expected.
Last week’s opener surely had the Red Bulls faithful (similar to our fanbase) feeling let down with a very 2023 performance. New York did pick up a scoreless road draw at Nashville, but they hit the post numerous times and couldn’t convert despite a 1.48 to 0.12 xG advantage at the end of the night. Now they head to Houston to face a beat-up Dynamo side who will be playing in their fourth match in 11 days. We’ll take any chance to pick on the orange team, especially with our Eastern Conference preseason darlings. Red Bulls to win, suck it Houston.
Vancouver Whitecaps (-120)
Going north of the border for this one where the Whitecaps will play host to Charlotte FC. It’s the season opener for Vancouver, who have been off since wrapping up the second leg of their CCC first round matchup against Tigres two and a half weeks ago.
Charlotte may have held on for a win in their home opener, but coming cross-country doesn’t bode well for a team that jettisoned two of their three DPs in the weeks leading up to the regular season. Charlotte are a roster in flux, while Vancouver is very much not. The Whitecaps were a top four offense in 2023, while their opponents were second worst (really, Charlotte had a lower xG than Colorado last year despite making the wild card round). We’ve got Vancouver to take care of business at home.
Austin FC (+475)
Look, this is a longshot. The Verde & Black were just plain bad in the opener. Sebastián Driussi is questionable to play, plus Leo Väisänen and Brendan Hines-Ike are both out. But Seattle is beat up too, with seven players ruled out and Raúl Ruidíaz questionable.
The Sounders are heavily favored for good reason, they’re one of the most consistent franchises in the league. But this is MLS, the league designed for parity. Austin was probably a bigger underdog on paper when they traveled to Lumen Field in 2023 when they pulled off a 2-1 win. This line opened around +400 and has trickled upwards to a point where it’s a bit of an overreaction in our eyes. We’re going to put a half unit on Austin to win this one.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options on the market. Here are the Week 2 shouts.
Denis Bouanga @ RSL (+140)
Luis Muriel @ MIA (+280)
Brian White vs CLT (+130)
Dante Vanzeir @ HOU (+260)
Joseph Paintsil @ SJ (+280)
Christian Benteke @ POR (+200)
