Match Preview - Toronto FC
Game Info
Kickoff: 6:40pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: BMO Field - Toronto, ON
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 1W-0L-0D against Toronto FC.
The lone match up between these two sides came in May of 2023 at Q2 Stadium. Both teams were going through varying degrees of turmoil (six days after this match, Toronto’s internal team issues were made public) and were in need of a win. Austin FC ended up coming out on top thanks to a late winner by Gyasi Zardes in the first minute of second half stoppage time. It was his second game winning goal in as many games.
That game also presents an interesting Verde “time capsule” to reflect upon. In that match, which feels like it happened an eternity ago when in reality it’s been about 15 months…
Alex Ring started at centerback.
Sebastián Driussi was out due to injury.
Austin’s starting XI included Rodney Redes, Maxi Urruti, Nick Lima, and Sofiane Djeffal (who played the full 90).
Austin took 16 shots, a mark they have not exceeded at Q2 Stadium in a league match since.
Toronto’s Mark-Anthony Kaye was given a yellow card for spinning Djeffal around by his jersey and throwing him to the ground.
Matt Hedges started at centerback… for Toronto FC.
Adrian Healey was on the call for Apple TV’s broadcast.
Those don’t mean much for this Saturday’s match, but we thought they were interesting facts nonetheless!
Toronto FC Recent Form
Toronto finds themselves in the heat of a similar battle to secure a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Currently sitting in 8th place, Toronto is a middling Eastern Conference team that has been up and down throughout the 2024 season. Despite a ten-match winless streak earlier in the summer, Toronto sits on 33 points from their 28 games (compared to Austin’s 34 from 27).
On the defensive side of the ball, this team can crumble when the going gets tough. With 50 goals allowed this season, Toronto has to fetch the ball from their own net around 1.8 times per game. Only six of the other 28 MLS teams have conceded more goals this season, cementing Toronto as one of the worst defensive units in the league.
Their negative 14 goal differential paints a picture of a unit that has plenty of struggles stopping opposing offenses. While goalkeeper Sean Johnson has been a mainstay in both MLS and with USMNT, he’s in the midst of one of his more disappointing seasons of his professional career. Johnson has just a 61% save percentage on 2.6 saves per game. His -2.1 goals prevented figure plants him as one of the most under-performing goalkeepers in the league.
Of course, Toronto’s struggles are not solely blamed on the mitts of Johnson. The entire defensive unit in front of him is devoid of household names and talent alike. You may remember the name Henry Wingo, a fullback that Austin FC was tied to back in April. It may have been a blessing in disguise that Rodo didn’t pull the trigger on bringing Wingo to the 512, as he has struggled mightily since arriving in Canada. Tactically, Toronto has been employing a three centerback look that requires their wingbacks to cover a lot of ground in transition. It hasn’t gone well, especially of late, as Toronto is coming off of a 3-1 home loss to DC United. On paper, that was a more devastating loss than Austin’s recent home dud against Vancouver. Again, both teams have a similar air of desperation surrounding them.
On the positive side of things for Austin’s opponents, Toronto has one of the most dangerous players in the league in Federico Bernardeschi. Well known for his time with Juventus in Serie A and his 39 caps with Italy, Bernardeschi is a shot-creating machine with a true nose for the goal. According to FB Ref, Bernardeschi has generated a whopping 120 shot-creating actions, which is more than double than any one else on Toronto’s roster. Bernardeschi has eight goals and eight assists this season, leading the team in both categories. He is the key to their offense and will be an absolute menace all night.
Austin’s typical road tactics of allowing opposing players to take shots from deep may not be the best strategy against Toronto, as both Bernardeschi and his former Italian national team counterpart Lorenzo Insigne can pinpoint shots from distance that most keepers find difficult to handle. Those two household names will need to be accounted for at all times when the ball enters Austin’s defensive third.
Austin FC Recent Form
As we spoke about on Episode 173, things are very different from when these teams met for the first time in history 15 months ago.
That’s all well and good, but let’s talk about the elephant in the room – Austin’s atrocious, vomit-inducing performance versus the Vancouver Whitecaps two weeks ago. I’m on record saying that was the absolute worst 90-minute performance of the season, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time. With the Verde and Black riding high after a surprisingly positive Leagues Cup “run” and the road victory versus Nashville SC, it felt like Austin was primed to secure three points at home against a banged up Whitecaps club.
Oh, how wrong we were. Austin came out with zero intensity and no direction in what felt like a must-win game. Vancouver controlled the game right from the rip and were able to dictate pretty much every aspect of the match. The game plan was a head scratcher, with the team lacking aggression and failing to capitalize on the recent momentum that seemed to be building from the prior four matches.
So what style of play will we see out of this Austin club in this game? Will it be the ultra-conservative, ugly style that the team has deployed away from home for the majority of this season? I think not. Despite this most recent pathetic performance at Q2, Austin now has the weapons required to not be nearly as passive on the road. We saw that play out against LAFC and Nashville. But the fact is, most of the hope some of the more positive fans felt after wins over Pumas and Monterrey and the three points returning to league play evaporated in the loss to Vancouver.
Which formation will Austin start with? Coach Wolff hinted that we may see more of the same on Saturday. To be clear, I was one of the most vocal supporters of the recent alignment with Seba up top. I thought this was a great way to ensure that our best playmakers were all getting on the field together. All of that went out the window after watching the Vancouver game, which saw a season-low 16 touches for Driussi (he averages 45.5 in starts this season). While I am not completely out on seeing this lineup again, I think it may be a gadget that the team needs to put on the backburner for this one. This Toronto team is not a superior team and I believe that the Verde boys are best served playing straight up and winning this game with a traditional striker.
Ultimately, I’m tired of saying “this is a team we should beat.” The players, coaches and fans all know what’s at stake. It needs to get done. This is an absolute must-win game and if Austin is incapable of getting at least a point on the road Saturday, the likelihood of a postseason berth diminishes greatly, given the remaining schedule.
Injury Report
ATX - None
TOR - Kevin Long (Out - Thigh)
Toronto Players to Watch
Federico Bernardeschi - Toronto’s best player and most threatening goal scorer has 16 goal contributions and is a threat to score from nearly anywhere in the attacking third. It will be of the utmost importance to find him defensively and work hard to bottle him up. And if he’s still got those Velaryon-esque braids going (for all our GOT fans), expect to see plenty of chatter about them from Austin fans on social media as well.
Lorenzo Insigne - The other Italian national for Toronto FC has been more of a distributor this season (four goals and seven assists) than he was when he was lighting nets up in Serie A, scoring 122 goals with Napoli. While he has lost a step in the grand scheme of things, he still possesses dangerous speed, lethal chance creation and elite finishing ability for MLS.
Austin’s Keys to the Game
WAKE TF UP - Time and time again since late May, this team has come out flat after showing whisps of positive momentum. It’s an unsustainable habit that could end up costing Austin their stated season-long goal of a playoff berth. Captain Alex Ring mentioned that the team had a great week of training and are firmly prepared to make a statement after their disgusting home performance against Vancouver. It’s great that he brought that up, but I’ll need to see it for a full 90 before I can feel as confident as I had previously about Austin securing some post-regular season soccer.
Who Steps Up? - There is no longer time for mistakes. Between the numerous penalties conceded and red cards sending off key players in crucial games, the disciplinary issues must cease. If Austin is serious about making the playoffs then they have to win this game. Who is going to take the lead for this club? I need to see some passion, some conviction, some fire. Step up!
Predictions
E - 3-2 Austin FC
ZG - 2-1 Austin FC
