Match Preview - Minnesota United
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:39pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
All-Time H2H Record
Austin swept the 2023 season series, nabbing a 2-1 win at home on a late Driussi goal and a big 4-1 road victory in the best offensive performance we saw from the Verde & Black last year.
Austin FC has a 4W 3L 0D all-time record against Minnesota United.
Minnesota’s Recent Form
The Loons have had a tumultuous offseason. They fired Adrian Heath late last season and announced in early December that interim head coach Sean McAuley would remain in that role to begin 2024. Before new sporting director Khaled El-Ahmad arrived in January, McAuley bailed. That forced the club to elevate their Next Pro manager, Cameron Knowles, to interim head coach of the first team. Coming into this week, word was that the Loons may wait until closer to the summer window to fill the role in order to be able to bring in the top candidates El-Ahmad is eyeing. But out of nowhere on Monday, Tom Bogert dropped the news that Minnesota is expected to hire Manchester United assistant Eric Ramsay to be their next head coach. Ramsay will be the youngest full-time head coach in league history at age 31. He’s not expected to coach this Saturday, as the deal has yet to be finalized and he’ll have to be granted a visa to come to the States from England, but it’s a big step towards achieving their ceiling in 2024 and beyond.
There was no real notable turnover in the Minnesota attack. When healthy, they’ll feature a fearsome group led by MVP-candidate Emanuel Reynoso and former EPL striker Teemu Pukki. They’ve got Robin Lod back in the mix after a season ending knee injury suffered in May, a major boost to the overall ceiling of this squad. However, explosive winger Bongokuhle Hlongwane is still away from the team and in the process of acquiring a green card to open an international slot. He is unlikely to play on Saturday.
To make matters worse for the Loons, Reynoso also missed the last three weeks of preseason training with an MCL sprain, working off to the side with athletic trainers until this Monday when he rejoined the full squad for most of the session. But on Tuesday, Reynoso tweaked the same knee and left practice early. After practice, interim coach Knowles said, “I don’t know what the extent of the (injury) is, whether it is a minor setback or we are still on track, so we’ll see.” It would be a surprise to us if the Loons talisman playmaker hit the field this Saturday for meaningful minutes, given that he’s trained in full just once since February 6 and missed every preseason exhibition this month. (Update: On Thursday, Reynoso was ruled OUT for Saturday’s match) Midfielder Kervin Arriaga and backup goalkeeper Clint Irwin, who have both been nursing injuries in the last few weeks, were both present at Tuesday’s training.
Minnesota’s preseason schedule was abbreviated compared to Austin, with the Loons playing just four exhibitions to the Verde & Black’s seven. Minnesota didn’t defeat any of the three MLS opponents they faced and only managed four goals across the four games, but they were without Reynoso and Hlongwane for the majority of February so any hand wringing about preseason results for the long-term outlook in Minnesota is still, as usual, a fool’s errand.
Austin’s Recent Form
Sporting Director Rodolfo Borrell has spent the offseason methodically progressing his roster rebuild that begun with the surprise trade of Diego Fagundez last August. Austin hasn’t made any eye-popping signings in the winter transfer window, but there’s little doubt that Borrell has created some interesting competition on the depth chart at nearly every position with high upside salary-cap conscious additions.
We may see a starting XI comprised fully of players who were on the roster in 2023 this Saturday, but we should expect to see some of the new arrivals appear off the bench in the second half. Players like striker Diego Rubio, winger Jáder Obrian and fullback Guilherme Biro could very well challenge for starting roles sooner rather than later.
The Verde & Black took just one loss in their seven preseason exhibitions, scoring 16 goals while conceding 14. But the games count from here on out, and Austin will be feeling the pressure from the fans to perform in the regular season opener. Having a winning record at home is a hallmark of a successful team in MLS and ATX was decidedly not that last year, winning just 41% of their home matches in 2023. A repeat performance at McKalla this year will surely send them to the depths of the Western Conference standings again.
Injury Report
(Updated Friday 5:25pm CT)
ATX – Sebastián Driussi (Questionable – Hamstring)
MIN – Emanuel Reynoso (OUT – Knee), Bongokuhle Hlongwane (OUT – Not With Team), Kervin Arriaga (Questionable - Knee)
Minnesota Players To Watch
Teemu Pukki – Arriving in the summer transfer window last season, Pukki didn’t take long to make a big impact on this Minnesota team. The former Premier League striker netted 11 goal contributions in just 14 appearances in 2023, including a four-goal masterclass against LA Galaxy in October. His MLS debut was off the bench against Austin back in July, terrorizing the Verde backline throughout the half hour he was on the pitch. He didn’t put any past Brad Stuver in that one, but there’s little doubt he’s the biggest goal scoring threat facing Austin on Saturday.
Robin Lod – Recovered from his season ending meniscus injury, Lod will rejoin the Loons starting group to begin the season. Since joining Minnesota in 2019, Lod has amassed 22 goals and 14 assists in 93 appearances for the Loons. He’s one back of Reynoso for most goals all-time for the club. Here’s hoping he doesn’t climb that list this weekend.
Dayne St. Clair – The Canadian international and former Generation Adidas goalkeeper is looking to improve on what was an inconsistent 2023. He kept a career high eight clean sheets in his 30 starts last season, but most of that outstanding work was done prior to the Leagues Cup break. None of those clean sheets came after August and he allowed three or more goals six times in the final two thirds of the season.
Austin’s Keys To The Game
Finish Your Dinner – Austin was top five in “big chances created” last season, signaling that the offense was generating better looks across the course of the year than results indicated. The team was also top five in “big chances missed” in 2023. Converting those chances is something that must change for the better this season if the Verde & Black are to improve on their dismal campaign from last year.
On Your Mark, Get Sets – 2023 was not Austin’s best when it came to set pieces. Per OptaAnalyst, Austin FC was sixth in the league last season in set piece xG (expected goals) while being tied for 12th most set piece goals with six other clubs at nine. Minnesota on the other hand gave up the seventh most set piece xG to opponents. The goal scoring opportunities for Austin off set pieces should be there for the taking, especially with new first team set piece coach Jason Grubb (who was in charge of set pieces for MLS Next Pro Cup winning Austin FC II) in the fold.
Vibe To Victory – One thing that you’re guaranteed to see on Saturday at Q2 Stadium is a whole lot of energy from Austin FC supporters. With a new season upon us, the players and coaching staff know how much of an advantage their home turf can be when things are going right. Whether we like it or not, “even louder when you’re down” often echoes off the roof of Q2 the loudest when the team is ahead. Fans should certainly expect to see a non-zero number of comeback wins in 2024, but we also haven’t forgotten the goose egg Austin FC posted in that department in 2023. Score first, fellas. Welcome the fans back with a bang.
The North End’s Predictions
ZG – Austin FC 2-1
E – Austin FC 3-2
