Week 5 MLS Picks
Two great weeks in a row have us back in the black through the first month of the season. With the first international break of the MLS season hitting us this weekend, we’ve got a lot of call ups to sift through along with our normal scan of the injury report.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 5 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. We came up two Petar Musa shot attempts short of another successful entry last week, let’s get back to winning ways in Week 5.
We’re going to begin our MLS matchday on Underdog Fantasy with last season’s golden boot winner. Benteke is over this 2.5 shot attempt number in three of four appearances on the young season, averaging 4.87 shots per 90. That number is likely to come down as the season progresses, but this is still an advantageous line based on Benteke’s historical MLS rates. Across his first three seasons with the club he averaged 3.71, 3.42 and 3.16 shot attempts per 90. Last year, Benteke played 78 or more minutes 28 times for DC United, taking three or more shots in 18 of those games. DC is on the road in Orlando on Saturday and these two teams usually put on a show, with three or more total goals scored in six of the last seven meetings between the two. Feed the big man!
Think it’s safe to assume the majority (if not all) of you reading this are Austin FC fans. If so, then you saw Cengiz Ünder give the Austin defense fits. Even though he wasn’t able to get on the scoresheet, Ünder made his presence felt. LAFC will be without Denis Bouanga this weekend, which could push even more of the offensive responsibilities to the Turkish DP. This is Ünder’s tenth season as a pro and he’s averaged 2.62 shot attempts per 90 in his career. His lowest shots per 90 rate in a season sits at 2.02, which was in his first professional season as a 19-year-old in the Turkish Süper Lig. Since then, he’s played in the Premier League, Ligue 1 and Serie A, along with a second stint in the Süper Lig. We’ll gladly take this line at 1.5, even with the 0.93x multiplier.
We’re going to close out the Week 5 entry running back the prop that caused last week’s entry to come up short. The thinking here is very similar to what we wrote about last week, so we’ll just do a quick copy paste to refresh you. Last season, Musa played 70 or more minutes in 26 games, taking three or more shots in 16 of those games. Overall in 2024, he averaged 3.37 shots per 90 minutes, which is right in line with his career average of 3.36 shots per 90 minutes. In his two seasons with Benfica prior to joining FC Dallas, Musa averaged 4.48 and 5.27 shots per 90 minutes, respectively. Both of those seasons totaled about 1,000 minutes, but the volume is there. To strengthen the case, Musa went over this 2.5 shot attempt number in both meetings with Real Salt Lake last season.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 6.24x your entry fee if successful.
Note: At time of publishing, Underdog has yet to post shot attempt props for Austin FC’s game against San Diego FC on Sunday. Once they do, we’ll have our eyes on their shot attempt offerings for Osman Bukari, Jáder Obrian, Brandon Vazquez and Guilherme Biro, specifically targeting Bukari 1.5 shot attempts or Biro 0.5 shot attempts if they’re posted at a 1x or higher multiplier.
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1.0 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +6.96 U
Week 5 Picks
Nashville SC to Win + CIN/ATL O 2.5
Parlay +170
Nashville are the largest favorites on the slate, hosting a CF Montreal team that is on their fifth of seven road games to start the season. The home team are missing a few players to international duty, like Andy Najar and Jacob Schaffelburg, but they’ll have all their best options available, like Hany Mukhtar, Sam Surridge, Walker Zimmerman and Joe Willis. Montreal on the other hand are just straight up bad. They’re one of six teams in MLS who haven’t won a game. With the juice on Nashville reaching -180, we’re going to parlay this with…
The over 2.5 goals in FC Cincinnati and Atlanta United. This game could be a real shit show. There are a ton of absences for both teams, with Atlanta listing 10 players out and Mateusz Klich questionable and Cincy missing two key CBs in Teenage Hadebe and Matt Miazga. The home side will also be without club record signing Kevin Denkey due to international duty, but they’ve got more than enough left on the attacking side of the ball to put multiple goals past Brad Guzan. This matchup has also gone over this number in four of the last five meetings. We may be visiting some Cincinnati options in the goal picks, but for now, we’re putting these two picks together for an enticing +170.
LAFC
ML +150
On a three game losing streak, LAFC travels to Kansas City to take on Sporting. They’ll be shorthanded without Denis Bouanga and Nathan Ordaz for international duty, along with Olivier Giroud still dealing with injury. But this is still a very strong side even with those absences considered. Sporting KC on the other hand isn’t suffering from numerous call ups, but they’re just a bad team, one of the six MLS clubs without a win through the first month of the season. We’ll take LAFC at plus money to get back to winning ways on the road at Children’s Mercy Park, where they have defeated SKC in each of their last three visits.
Austin FC
ML +100
After jumping off our favorite team on the road last weekend, we’re right back at it with the Verde and Black returning home to Q2 Stadium. They’ll welcome expansion side San Diego FC to Austin for the lone Sunday game of the Week 5 slate. Both teams are missing key players to both injury and international duty, but San Diego has fewer quality options in relief compared to ATX. We’ll take Austin to get the job done at home at even odds.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 5 shouts.
Luca Orellano +175
Wilfried Zaha +175
Hany Mukhtar +135
Cengiz Ünder +260
David Martinez +300
Brandon Vazquez +150
Osman Bukari +240
To Score 2+ goals
Cengiz Ünder +2000 (0.5U)
To Score Or Give Assist
Evander -125
Owen Wolff +200
Results
Last Week: +4.8 U
Season: +3.0 U
