Match Preview - St. Louis City SC
Game Info
Kickoff: 1:25pm CT
Watch: Apple TV/FOX
Location: Energizer Park - St. Louis, MO
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 0W - 1D - 3L against St. Louis City SC.
The first time these two teams met was opening night in 2023, which was the first ever competitive match for St. Louis. The expansion side infamously took all three points home from Q2 Stadium after the “Kipp Keller Game,” the highlights of which will never be linked to on this site. Look ‘em up for yourself if you’re a determined masochist.
As you can tell by the all-time record, it’s never gone well for ATX against STL. The Verde and Black did come mere minutes from victory in the third game of the 2024 season, leading 2-1 at home in second half stoppage time before conceding in the third minute to a Celio Pompeu goal that deflected off Ethan Finlay’s inner thigh. As a reminder of how dire the Austin FC roster was at the time of that draw that felt like a loss, Finlay was lined up as a right back at the time after Brendan Hines-Ike was brought on as a third center back for Jon Gallagher two minutes prior.
These two teams last met in St. Louis a month later, where Austin recorded one of their four road matches with no shots on target in 2024, losing 1-0. This is putting me in a terrible mood, let’s move on.
St. Louis City SC Recent Form
St. Louis CITY SC (yes, they actually go all-caps with “CITY” in their team name, I will not be doing that throughout this article) is one of two MLS franchises younger than Austin FC.
St. Louis has been a vibrant soccer community for decades and they danced around MLS expansion for nearly 15 years before finally landing a successful bid in August of 2019. The ownership group is led by Carloyn Kindle Betz and other female members of the Taylor family, who own Enterprise Rent-A-Car. In addition to being the CEO of St. Louis City SC, Betz is also the president of Enterprise Holdings Foundation, the charitable arm of Enterprise. St. Louis City SC is the first female majority-owned team in MLS.
In August 2020 the club hired Lutz Pfannenstiel (who is an absolute character) as sporting director and in January 2022 named Bradley Carnell, a former assistant with New York Red Bulls, as head coach. With his background in “energy drink soccer,” the club was known through its first two seasons for it’s high pressing defensive style coupled with direct attacking play.
St. Louis exploded onto the MLS scene with their opening night victory over Austin and never looked back, becoming the first expansion franchise to win their first five matches and setting the record for most wins in an expansion season with 17. They secured the Western Conference’s top seed headed into the 2023 MLS Playoffs before being upset by their main rivals, eighth seeded Sporting KC, in a best-of-three first round series.
The team took a nose dive in 2024, winning just three of their first 20 league matches, firing Carnell on July 1. A few weeks later, the club was very active in the summer transfer window. They signed a new designated player in Marcel Hartel, a 29-year-old German midfielder who had stops with FC St. Pauli (where he helped the team get promoted to the Bundesliga), FC Köln, Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld.
They also added midfielder Cedric Teuchert on a TAM deal, a 28-year-old midfielder who came stateside from Hannover 96 in the German second division after recording 28 goals and nine assists in 73 matches. Both Germans came on free transfers, but it wasn’t just the international market that St. Louis was operating in last July and August. They brought forward Simon Becher back to MLS on loan from AC Horsens in Denmark. Becher, a former St. Louis University player, was drafted 16th overall by the Vancouver Whitecaps in 2022. They also traded center back Tim Parker (who scored the first ever goal for the club at Q2 Stadium in 2023) and $600k GAM to New England in exchange for center back Henry Kessler.
With the infusion of new attacking talent, St. Louis finished the season strong, winning four of their last eight matches. Although it wasn’t enough for a second straight playoff berth and they ended up below lowly Austin FC in the 2024 Western Conference table, the new look roster rightfully generated a lot of hype among their fanbase headed into this year.
After getting so much roster work done in the summer, STL’s biggest offseason acquisition was hiring Olof Mellberg as their new head coach. For the uninformed (like myself), Mellberg was the rock of the Aston Villa back line in the Premier League from 2001-2008, before moving on to stints with Juventus, Olympiacos, Villarreal and Copenhagen. Mellberg also had 117 caps for the Swedish national team from 2000-2012.
STL did make some personnel changes around the fringes as well, adding 29-year-old free agent CB Timo Baumgartl, who had previously spent time with FC Schalke 04, Union Berlin, PSV and VfB Stuttgart amassing 140 appearances for across the top divisions of German and Dutch football. Baumgartl was diagnosed and successfully treated for testicular cancer in 2022 while playing for Union Berlin. He returned to the pitch after a five month absence. He’s been injured to begin the 2025 season, playing just eight minutes with the first team so far, although he did play a full 90 minutes with St. Louis City 2 last weekend. We should expect to see Baumgartl available for the first team on Sunday.
They also signed former Norwegian youth international Conrad Wallem on loan from Slavia Prague in the Czech first division. Wallem has slotted in as a left wing back for STL, starting four of their first five matches.
Mellberg’s arrival signaled two changes to the identity of St. Louis City on the pitch. First, they have not been pressing nearly as high to begin this season. The average height of their defensive actions (the average distance from the defending goal line of a team’s defensive actions) through their first five matches is 35.37 meters. Compare that to Austin FC’s average height of defensive actions sitting at 35.03 meters and knowing that ATX has kept a lower line, especially in the last two matches against LAFC and SDFC, points to the significant change in style for STL.
They have also shifted formations under Mellberg, as the new gaffer prefers to roll out three center backs and operate with a 3-4-2-1 look. The fresh tactics have hardened the St. Louis City defense, which was a big need after allowing 63 goals in 2024. They’ve conceded a league-best one goal through the first five weeks, though it’s been at the expense of their offensive potency, racking up just 5.3 xG and scoring four goals to date.
From what I’ve watched of this team, both this season and last, I’m positive that some of the scoring woes fall on the player personnel. Specifically, designated player and striker Joao Klauss. After terrorizing MLS back lines through the majority of the 2023 season, Klauss has turned into a pumpkin. He hasn’t scored a competitive goal for St. Louis City since May 11, 2024, a 21-match drought. He was benched last week in the 1-0 road loss against Philadelphia Union.
But the current issues for STL don’t stop with Klauss. TAM midfielder and (in my opinion) the key to everything the team wants to do with the ball, Eduard Löwen, was shown a second yellow card and subsequent red last week after delaying a restart by kicking the ball away. He’ll be suspended for this Sunday’s match and is a big hit to STL’s chances of breaking out of their offensive funk.
Star goalkeeper Roman Bürki will also miss this match due to injury. He broke his hand in training last Friday prior to the Philadelphia match and will miss 1-2 months. Bürki has been one of, if not the, best keeper in MLS since arriving in 2023. He led the league in post-shot xG +/- in 2023 and was second to Charlotte FC’s Kristijan Kahlina in 2024. Backup Ben Lundt had a near heroic outing in relief last weekend, making eight saves against Philly. He should have his hands full again this weekend with Austin’s DP front line bearing down.
Austin FC Recent Form
For the first time since October 2022, Austin FC sits in second place in the Western Conference table. It’s been very nice to look at this week and I’ll admit that I’ve opened up my FotMob app a few more times than usual just to have a look at it. But, as we talked about in Episode 209 on Monday evening, that position in the standings is thinner than tissue paper. Just three points separate Austin FC in second place from Real Salt Lake in 11th.
I’m not trying to bring the mood down and just in case that dose of reality dampened your verde spirits, I’ll also point out that ATX is just three points from not only the top of the Western Conference, but the Supporter’s Shield standings as well! The biggest takeaway from all of this is that it’s still much too early to be making sweeping judgements about any team, as everything is still swinging wildly on a week to week basis and a few more matchdays away from significant separation in the table.
If you already caught up on Episode 210 from Thursday previewing this match you’ll know that I’m hell bent on getting Osman Bukari back into the Austin FC starting XI. With how shorthanded they appear to be heading into Sunday and their change in philosophy, it would surprise me to see them do anything but play defensively against ATX. As long as Julio Cascante is fit to start, I expect head coach Nico Estévez to accept the invite to play with possession.
If the injury report breaks as I expect, there is little doubt that the Verde and Black are the more talented side on paper, especially if all three designated players are on the pitch. There’s been rightful concern over Bukari’s decision making over the last two games, but when we watch the film back after shedding the emotions of live viewing, he’s consistently getting into dangerous areas and creating imbalances in an opponent’s back line. If STL is going to sit deep, his quick bursts of speed and individual creativity should not begin this match on the bench.
Austin will also welcome back the services of Myrto Uzuni and Oleksandr Svatok from the international break. I expect Uzuni to slot right back in up top in place of Diego Rubio and I think this is the game he breaks through and finds the back of the net. He scored for Albania on Monday against Andorra in a World Cup qualifying match after coming close multiple times over two games for Austin earlier in the month. Even though he’s yet to score his first MLS goal, Uzuni is 14th in MLS in xG per 90 among players with at least 180 minutes played. It’s admittedly a small sample, but you’d rather see him near the top of this list than further down!
If both DP’s return to the starting unit, someone else will have to take a seat along with Rubio. My best guess is Dani Pereira, considering the alternative would be to bench one of the other three midfielders who started with him last Sunday against San Diego, who are all in better form to begin the year. But Estévez has surprised us already this season with this lineup decisions, we shouldn’t be shocked if another curveball comes our way an hour before kick this weekend.
Taking a peek at the upcoming schedule, the winds are blowing in a direction favorable to our favorite team. A win this Sunday could set Austin on track to not only keep their position in the upper tier of the Western Conference table but potentially solidify it with an early season run of good form. But I won’t jinx anything by discussing any upcoming opponents further. You can take a look at the fixture list yourself, though you better beleive that if ATX brings home three points this weekend we’re gonna start looking ahead and making some lofty prognostications here in The North End while riding a win streak. Don’t let us down boys!
Injury Report
ATX:
Mikkel Desler (Out - Hamstring)
STL:
Eduard Löwen (Out - Red Card Suspension)
Roman Bürki (Out - Hand)
Tomas Totland (Out - Hamstring)
Rasmus Alm (Out - Hip)
Jay Reid (Out - Foot)
Cedric Teuchert (Questionable - Hamstring)
Michael Wentzel (Questionable - Leg)
Jake Girdwood-Reich (Questionable - Ankle)
St. Louis City SC Players to Watch
Marcel Hartel - One of the many German nationals on the St. Louis roster, the 29-year-old Hartel is the player I expect to take on a significant amount of Löwen’s distribution duties. To his credit, Hartel has already been pulling a lot of that “usage” away from Löwen to begin the season, leading the team in shot creating actions. He’ll look to pull the strings on Sunday to set up attacking teammates like Teuchert, Becher and Klauss (if he plays). Don’t be shocked to see Hartel go for goal himself either, he’s got the most shot attempts on the team, although Becher and Klauss have higher per 90 rates.
Cedric Teuchert - Another German! Teuchert is a big time threat to score, but has been limited by injury this season. He has yet to play more than 73 minutes in a game so far this year, but has increased his minutes load in each of St. Louis’ five matches in 2025. This weekend may be the first full 90 for Teuchert on the seaon and he’ll look to get back on track statistically, with just one goal to this point of the season after recording five goals in ten appearances with STL last year.
Henry Kessler - The 26-year-old center back has been, along with injured goalkeeper Roman Bürki, the key to STL’s early season success on the defensive side of the ball. Kessler has blocked the most shots (10) in MLS through five weeks and is sixth (40) in clearances. He’ll provide a significant physical challenge for Brandon Vazquez and Myrto Uzuni trying to finish off chances in front of net.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Road Warriors - If you can beat LAFC on the road, you can compete with anyone in this league. That one win doesn’t mean that Austin FC will suddenly start racking up wins away from Q2 Stadium, but it was one of the more encouraging performances since 2022. Coming to St. Louis presents a similar kind of test. Their fanbase is (almost) as passionate as we are, with outstanding support even through their down times in 2024. A raucous crowd coupled with potential inclement weather could turn this match on its head in an instant. The next test Austin has yet to pass is coming from behind to earn a result. I don’t want ATX to fall behind, but if they do, it will be an opportunity to show us something they’ve yet to prove in 2025.
Mark It Three, Dude - If you’ve read this far, let’s share a secret. Not because it’s undisclosed information, on the contrary this is very much public. But a win this Sunday would make it three in a row for Austin FC, something the club hasn’t done since July 2022 when they won four matches in a row, a feat they accomplished twice that season. Those two four-game win streaks represent the high water mark in Austin’s historical form, with no other three game win streaks in the club’s history. Let’s keep that between us until the final whistle, don’t spread it to friends or family and put any bad wuju on our boys! Once the final whistle blows with ATX ahead on the scoreboard, we’ll start the party.
Predictions
ZG - 2-1 Austin FC
E - 2-0 Austin FC
