Week 6 MLS Picks
We’re on absolute fire right now! Through five weeks of the MLS season we’re up nearly 16 units across all of our picks and have seen three straight weeks of profit since our Week 2 slip up.
Before we get to the picks as normal, another reminder that we’ve got an addition to this weekly article in 2025. If you’ve been following along with the podcast during the offseason, you’ll know we’ve partnered with Underdog Fantasy. If you want to play along with us at Underdog, you can sign up today using this link and when you use promo code "NORTHEND" at sign up you'll get up to $1000 in bonus cash plus a free pick!
The official league injury report for Saturday’s games came out Friday afternoon, let’s dive into the Week 6 picks.
Underdog Fantasy Entry of the week
Each match week, we’ll have an Underdog Fantasy entry for you to tail if your heart desires. Last week was our worst of the season so far on Underdog, with just one of our three picks going green by the end of the weekend. There’s a lot to like on the board this weekend, let’s get to the Week 6 entry.
We’re going to begin our MLS matchday on Underdog Fantasy with a goalkeeper we will be picking on later in the article as well. Cabral has taken over duties in net from the injured Zac McMath this season, allowing nine goals through five league matches thus far. He’ll be up against it tonight in Minnesota and the books think so as well. While Cabral’s goals allowed prop is sitting at a standard 1x multiplier on Underdog Fantasy, many sportsbooks have the over 1.5 for Minnesota heavily juiced (up to -155 in some spots). We’ll play the odds and the vibes of this one and take Minnesota over 1.5.
Another new name to the Underdog entry this week is FC Cincinnati striker Kevin Denkey. He was, for a few weeks, the most expensive inbound transfer in MLS history, before Atlanta United topped that number with their purchase of Emmanuel Latte Lath. A quick spin through his stats helps you visualize why Denkey was such a hot commodity. He’s only 24-years-old, but has played eight professional seasons, amassing over 9,600 minutes. His career shots per 90 average is 3.41 (!) and that includes two seasons in Ligue 1 and three in the Belgian Pro League. He’s only gone over this number once in four appearances with Cincy so far, which is contributing to this being a 1.1x multiplier, along with the fact that they’re on the road tonight in Nashville. We expect Denkey to get back to his career averages sooner rather than later, making this an advantageous spot to attack in Week 6.
We’re going to close out the Week 5 entry running back one of the props that caused last week’s entry to come up short. The thinking here is very similar to what we wrote about Ünder last week so the ol’ copy paste comes back into play for a moment. Here’s an excerpt of our rationale from the Week 5 picks:
“This is Ünder’s tenth season as a pro and he’s averaged 2.62 shot attempts per 90 in his career. His lowest shots per 90 rate in a season sits at 2.02, which was in his first professional season as a 19-year-old in the Turkish Süper Lig. Since then, he’s played in the Premier League, Ligue 1 and Serie A, along with a second stint in the Süper Lig. We’ll gladly take this line at 1.5, even with the 0.9x multiplier.”
The only unfortunate aspect of this prop is we didn’t get the article out sooner! It was at a 1x multiplier until about five minutes before we published, so we aren’t the only ones attacking the Ünder shot prop today.
Using the standard payout selection on Underdog, this 3-pick entry will payout a prize of 5.94x your entry fee if successful.
Results
Underdog Fantasy (Last Week): -1.0 U
Underdog Fantasy (Season): +5.96 U
Week 6 Picks
Inter Miami To Win + MIA/PHI OVER 2.5
+105
Our approach to Inter Miami is usually pretty simple. Is Lionel Messi playing? We know he’s going to be named to the match day roster, but with CCC starting back up in a few days, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him come off the bench. Even if that comes to pass, taking the over 2.5 total on any game Miami has been involved in over the last two seasons has been a winning proposition more often than not. If Messi doesn’t start we aren’t too worried. Inter is the more talented team and should be favored regardless. But considering this team leaks goals at times almost as fast as they can score them, we’ll take Miami to win and the over 2.5 total in this match for plus odds.
Minnesota United to Win + MIN/RSL Over 1.5
ML +150
Real Salt Lake is a shell of their former selves from this time last season. The Loons on the other hand look to be one of the stronger sides, certainly in the Western Conference. After dropping their season opener on the road to LAFC by a 1-0 scoreline, Minnesota hasn’t lost since, with victories over CF Montreal and San Jose Earthquakes before back-to-back draws against Sporting KC and LA Galaxy. The Loons are -140 favorites and the over 2.5 total is an identical -140. We’ll take that down to a 1.5 total and pair it with Minnesota to win for a crisp +150.
LAFC
ML +190
LAFC also have a midweek CCC match coming up (against Inter Miami actually, that is going to be fun!) but first have a date with their new in-state rivals to the south, San Diego FC. The expansion side came back down to earth in Austin last week and look to get back on track at home on Saturday night. Not so fast, new guys! While San Diego should see Chucky Lozano back in action, Denis Bouanga returns from international duty for LAFC. This price is too high to pass up against a fledgling team like San Diego, we’re backing LAFC to win.
Austin FC
ML +210
If you need further explanation for this one, check out Episode 210 or take a spin through our match preview article. ATX to bring home the three points.
Goal Scorers
Every week we’ll pick a few of our favorite goal scoring options in the betting market. Here are the Week 6 shouts.
Lorenzo Insigne +300
Emmanuel Latte Lath +130
Diego Rossi +190
Jonathan Bamba +220
Kevin Denkey +170
Evander +230
Denis Bouanga +230
Cengiz Ünder +300
Myrto Uzuni +270
Osman Bukari +380
David Da Costa +270
To Score 2+ goals
Denis Bouanga +1700 (0.5U)
Cengiz Ünder +2500 (0.5U)
Myrto Uzuni +2200 (0.5)
To Score Or Give Assist
Emil Forsberg +125
Results
Last Week: +7.0 U
Season: +10.0 U
