Match Preview - Colorado Rapids
Game Info
Kickoff: 8:10pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 2W-4L-2D against Colorado Rapids.
Of course, the most memorable outing for the Verde & Black against the Rapids came all the way back on April 24, 2021, the club’s second competitive match that resulted in a 3-1 road victory, marking the first ever win for Austin FC.
Since then, it’s been a lot of forgettable performances against Colorado for ATX. They’ve earned just five total points from the seven meetings since that historic win for the club. The two teams have played to a 1-1 draw in each of their last two matchups at Q2 Stadium, including a somewhat controversial Decision Day match in 2022 that saw an equalizing header find the back of the net for former Rapids striker and current member of Austin FC, Diego Rubio, in the third minute of second half stoppage time.
The first meeting between Austin FC and Colorado Rapids this season was back on June 15, a 2-0 win for the Rapids behind goals from Cole Bassett and Rafael Navarro.
Colorado Rapids Recent Form
The Rapids have had the season that most Austin FC fans longed for. The bottom of the Western Conference table at this time last year, Colorado retooled their roster in a major way last offseason, adding the likes of Djordje Mihailovic, Zack Steffen and Sam Vines while shedding some other options that had worn out their welcome. They also changed coaches, bringing in Chris Armas, who has led Colorado back to the postseason with a chance to clinch the fifth seed with a victory over Austin FC and a Houston Dynamo loss or draw on Saturday.
Like we discussed on Episode 182, the Rapids are nearly tops in the league at creating “big chances”, ranking second on FotMob’s model behind only the Philadelphia Union. They’re also second in MLS in “big chances missed”, a story that ATX fans know all too well from last season. While Colorado isn’t converting their chances at a rate they’re likely to be totally satisfied with, it has translated into 59 goals through 33 matches played. That’s good for eighth in the league.
They’ve certainly been aided by some fortunate calls, breaks and bounces during their 2024 campaign. The Rapids are tops in MLS in penalties awarded with 14, a full five (five!) more than the next highest in the league. Austin FC on the other hand has conceded the second most penalties in MLS with eight. Not a recipe we like to see simmering over the Q2 stove.
Colorado isn’t just playing to potentially move up in the table on Saturday, they can also drop with a loss and a Minnesota United win against St. Louis City SC. They’ve also lost three straight league games coming into Decision Day, so the Rapids will be looking to right the ship headed into the postseason. This is a team that is highly motivated to put in a performance that sends Austin fans home with a frown.
Austin FC Recent Form
The eight-month MLS regular season comes to a close on Saturday and for some Austin FC fans it might feel like sweet relief. No matter your thoughts on the club, the coaching staff, the players or anything in between, it has been a rough go if you’re a Verde fan this year. ATX has mustered just north of one goal per game in 2024. It’s even more stomach turning to look at FotMob’s xG model and see that even sitting on 39 points and eliminated from playoff contention, the team is “overperforming” expectation.
So how low is that expectation exactly? Toggle the table to the “xG” tab on FotMob and you’ll see that Austin FC is “expected” to be the worst team in the Western Confernce by four points and just one point above “expected” wooden spoon winning New England Revolution (who are currently the second worst team in the actual league table). The idea that Austin should be in a much worse spot than they are is not a great headspace to be in, at least for this die-hard fan.
Unless you’re new to The North End though, you know that we’ll always sift through the rubble to find even the slightest ounce of positivity to keep pushing forward with this club. From my point of view, there is plenty to be excited about with the future of this team.
First, despite the lack of results this season, the signings that Sporting Director Rodolfo Borrell has made over the last two transfer windows have largely been positive ones. The best of those are locked in with the club for the next three seasons. Second, to the relief of many Austin fans, Josh Wolff is now the “former” head coach of the team. While longtime assistant Davy Arnaud will serve as interim for Saturday’s finale, the expectation is that a new manager will be named in the coming months.
Next, Borrell is going to have the most roster and salary cap flexibility in the upcoming transfer window as he’s had in his first year and a half on the job. With at least three “special” roster slots (designated players and U22) avaialable to him this winter, I’m on the edge of my seat to see what Rodo cooks up this offseason.
Some might say that Satuday night’s game is meaningless, and while I get the sentiment, there are some things I’m hoping come out of this match with Colorado. Priority number one is no injuries. Anything that would impact the 2025 campaign negatively (training camp starts in less than three months) would be a disaster in the context of this game. Next, Austin FC can improve on their 2023 point total (39) with a win or a draw, and I would like to see that happpen from a historical perspective.
Then there’s a number of players who could be playing their final match in an Austin uniform, including team captain Alex Ring. To be able to salute Ring after a victory on Decision Day as he makes his final rounds on the pitch he’s called home the last four years would be a treat for all involved. Of course, a win would also have us leaving Q2 Stadium with some overall good vibes headed into the hibernation of winter and I, selfishly, very much want to be smiling walking out of the Zebra Gate on Saturday.
I’m also interested to see how Arnaud aligns his starting XI. The team signed academy product and Austin FC II midfielder Ervin Torres to a short-term loan agreement this morning. Could we see Arnaud “play the kids” and give some minutes to guys like Torres, CJ Fodrey or even Jimmy Farkarlun? Will he insert some of the veterans who have been in a reserve role for most of the year like Ethan Finlay or Hector Jimenez? Or, is he just going to throw the strongest XI out there and lean heavily on the throttle?
I think that the signing of Torres this morning indicates that the “play the kids” option may come into play, even if it’s not how the team starts the game. Either way, I’m ready to convene once more at “Soccer Church” for the year and cheer the team on one last time in 2024.
Injury Report
ATX:
Mikkel Desler (Questionable - Lower Body)
Guilherme Biro (Out - Red Card Suspension)
Dani Pereira (Out - Yellow Card Accumulation)
COL:
Cole Bassett (Questionable - Quad)
Kevin Cabral (Questionable - Elbow)
Zack Steffen (Out - Lower Body)
Michael Edwards (Out - Back)
Colorado Rapids Players to Watch
Djordje Mihailovic - The 25-year-old midfielder got off to a bit of a slow start back in the spring, but has fallen into a productive groove over the back half of the season. The Rapids marquis offseason signing has totaled 25 goal contributions in his 28 appearances (all starts) this year. He’s the one pulling the strings in this high-powered midfield and the one that we’d like to see Jhojan Valencia “punish” to the ground a few times on Saturday.
Rafael Navarro - After being signed officially in the summer off his loan deal, the Brazilian striker has continued his torrid goal scoring pace. The 24-year-old Navarro has 14 goals in his 33 appearances with five dimes for good measure. He buried the second goal against Austin FC when these teams first met earlier this season and will look to do damage again at Q2 Stadium on Saturday.
Adam Beaudry - With Steffen sitting this one out, the 18-year-old backup keeper is expected to get the nod in goal. This will be his first career league start. Beaudry does represent the USYNT, most recently at the U-19 level, but he’s as green as they come when it comes to league play. If the Verde & Black can get one past him early, it could shake his confidence and open the floodgates.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Play For Each Other, Play For The Badge - Now that Austin FC is officially eliminated from playoff contention, this is the first truly “meaningless” game of the year. But every single player and coach involved, unless they’re considering retirement, has something on the line on Saturday. With an opponent coming in who is still very much playing for something, it’s going to be personal pride and effort that takes ATX to victory on Decision Day. Play for the guy next to you, play for those who have stuck with you in the stands. You can’t change the first 33 results of 2024, but you can finish this thing off the right way with a win headed into the offseason.
Stay Healthy! - The worst possible outcome in this match is Austin FC losing players to long term injuries that impact next season. Remember, it’s an amazingly quick turnaround for these guys to get back for training camp, typically the second week of January. That’s less than three months from now, so health is a bigger factor than it may appear on the surface. Fingers crossed for a clean injury report when the final whistle blows.
Predictions
ZG - 3-2 Austin FC
E - 2-0 Austin FC
