Match Preview - Colorado Rapids
Game Info
Kickoff: 8:40pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Dick’s Sporting Goods Park - Commerce City, CO
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has a record of 2W-3L-2D all time against Colorado Rapids. Last season, Colorado pulled off a last minute draw at Q2 Stadium on the back of a late Kevin Cabral equalizing goal. Austin couldn’t repay the favor late in the year, dropping the rematch 1-0.
Both of Austin FC’s wins in this head-to-head matchup have come on the road, including the club’s first ever victory on April 24, 2021, a 3-1 result behind a Diego Fagundez goal (also the club’s first) and a brace from former DP Cecilio Dominguez.
Colorado Rapids Recent Form
While it was a relatively quiet offseason in central Texas last winter, the Rapids went through a significant overhaul. First, they hired Chris Armas as their new head coach. The decision was a head-scratching one for some who have been around MLS longer than the average Austin FC fan, considering the lack of sustained success for Armas at his previous stops with New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC. But to his credit, Armas has the Rapids sitting just a point back of ATX in eighth in the Western Conference. Their 22 points are just five shy of their 2023 total, so there’s no doubt that this is an improved Rapids side.
That improvement is due in large part to the revamped roster. Colorado opened up the pocketbook in the primary transfer window, acquiring Djordie Mihailovic from AZ Alkmaar for a fee that was reportedly north of $3 million. That’s enough to make the Mihailovic signing a club record, and a good reference point for any Austin FC fans who have delusions that current ownership is shy about spending themselves considering they’ve had not one but two inbound transfer fees above $6 million in the last two calendar years. The Rapids were founded 28 years ago.
Mihailovic has been as advertised, returning to MLS after two seasons abroad. The former Chicago Fire and CF Montreal midfielder is leading the Rapids in assists with six and is second in goal contributions with 11, just behind DP striker Rafael Navarro, who is finally scoring goals for Colorado with the elevated talent floor around him. For those that like to pay attention to the goings on outside of our Austin bubble, keep an eye on what the Rapids do with Navarro. His loan from Palmeiras expires at the end of the month and the reported option to buy is set at $4.5 million.
It's not just Mihailovic that’s had a positive impact on this team. Homegrown left back Sam Vines was re-acquired after spending two seasons with Royal Antwerp. Omir Fernandez, one of the youngest free agents in MLS history, signed on to reunite with Armas in Colorado. And highly touted (and doubted) goal keeper Zack Steffen is back stateside after five years in the Manchester City system, with loan stints to Düsseldorf and Middlesbrough along the way. Those additions alongside improved play in central defense from the likes of Moise Bombito and Andreas Maxsø has the Rapids positioned to stay in the playoff hunt for the duration of the season.
Even with things looking up from the depths of despair Colorado found itself in last season, the Rapids are vulnerable. They’ve earned just one point from their last four league matches and like Austin, also ceded five goals to Real Salt Lake in mid-May. They’ve given up 31 goals through their 17 matches, a number that only San Jose, Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers have topped in the Western Conference.
Austin’s Recent Form
The international break really couldn’t have come at a better time for Austin. The team’s form was bending in a negative direction as injuries to key players were starting to mount. The week off appears to have done them all some good, as head coach Josh Wolff indicated during Thursday morning’s press availability that the trio of Sebastián Driussi, Jon Gallagher and Ethan Finlay are trending towards being active on Saturday.
That’s all well and good, but with Dani Pereira and Julio Cascante remaining away from the team through at least the next four matches while they take part in the Copa America, the already shallow depth this team has is going to be at paper thin levels if the Verde and Black take on any more injuries or disciplinary suspensions.
With three games in an eight-day span (for the third time in the last five weeks), Austin FC is going to be tested physically and mentally once again. The one point earned in the last double game week prior to the bye was the worst three game stretch of the year for ATX. A slow start to the second half of the year could trigger a significant tumble down the Western Conference standings. Just five points separate sixth place Austin from the 11th seed.
Knowing the hurdles that this roster is facing, coming home with any points from Colorado should be considered a win in the grand scheme of the 34-game regular season. But bringing back a second road victory (Austin is 1-4-3 away from Q2 Stadium) certainly feels like it could be enough to buoy the team just enough in the standings to survive the rest of June above the playoff line. With the Rapids also experiencing a downturn in form, expect to see a highly physical and emotional match between two clubs desperate to continue their improved standing after their respective disastrous 2023 performances.
Injury Report
ATX – Julio Cascante (Out - Not due to injury), Dani Pereira (Out - Not due to injury)
COL – Sam Vines (Out - Illness) Daniel Chacón (Out - Knee), Wayne Frederick (Out - Hip), Kimani Stewart-Baynes (Out - Groin)
Colorado Rapids Players To Watch
Djordje Mihailovic – The heart of the new-look Rapids, Mihailovic does a little bit of everything. He’s got five goals on the season (only Driussi has equaled that number on the Austin side) to go along with his team high six assists. Austin fans should hope that the tandem of Alex Ring and Jhojan Valencia can do enough to stymie Mihailovic’s effectiveness on the ball.
Rafael Navarro – After we talked about the Navarro loan situation on Episode 150, Tom Bogert came out Thursday morning saying that the Rapids are looking to negotiate with Palmeiras on a permanent deal. His nine goals may be a bit of a mirage, considering four have come from the penalty spot (and he’s missed an additional two attempts), but he’s shown enough quality in open play this year to have Rapids fans online excited for a potential future with him as a DP.
Cole Bassett – With all the new names in town, Bassett might be the most underrated player for Colorado. The 22-year-old midfielder is one of two field players to start all 17 matches thus far and has seven goal contributions to his name. But his impact is even stronger than that across the board, check out his FB Ref scouting report. That’s a lot of green!
Austin’s Keys To The Game
Fresh Start – As disappointing as the week leading up to the international break was, I hope the team isn’t letting any of their confidence wane. What they’ve done through the first half of the year is to be commended, considering the consensus last place expectations back in February. We’ve seen one popular team bounce back strongly from a 5-1 thrashing over the last week. Let’s see if a well-rested Austin can do the same.
Hands (and Feet) To Yourself – Not to get ahead of myself here, but with LAFC up next at Q2 Stadium on Wednesday it feels pretty damn important that Diego Rubio and Jhojan Valencia don’t pick up a fifth yellow card on Saturday. Both guys are on accumulation warning, just a caution away from a one-game suspension.
The North End’s Predictions
ZG – 2-1 Austin FC
E – 2-1 Austin FC
