Match Preview - Houston Dynamo
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:39pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 6W - 0D - 3L against Houston Dynamo.
Emiliano Rigoni’s late-game heroics secured a 1-0 victory for Austin FC in their last matchup with Houston on April 20th, less than a month ago.
Again, we dominate this team (Austin has won first, last, most and double) and should be loud about it. Time to get to work.
Houston Dynamo Recent Form:
In the waning moments of their previous matchup against Houston back in April, CJ Fodrey soared to get a flick on to a breaking Emiliano Rigoni. A precise strike with his left foot was the lone goal of the game and the deciding factor in a rather lackluster contest between these intra-state rivals.
The “road warrior” strategy was deployed when Austin traveled to Houston, and the tactics proved effective. Houston controlled possession (something they do very well) for the majority of the game, generating 17 shots on 67% possession. Some timely blocks by the Austin defense diverted most of the chances Houston had away from Bradley Scott Stuver, who also had a pair of huge saves to preserve the clean sheet.
Since that game, Houston has a record of 1-2-1 in all competitions, with a loss to rival Dallas, a draw versus an injured St. Louis, and an embarrassing penalty kick loss to Detroit City FC to bow out of the US Open Cup in the Round of 32. The matchup against Detroit saw Houston run out a choice 11 for a majority of the game. This is something to keep an eye on now as the schedule becomes more condensed in the month of May. On Saturday Houston nabbed a road victory in the form of a 2-1 win against a struggling Sporting Kansas City side at Children’s Mercy Park. Goals from Hector Herrera (which was an impressive strike) and Ibrahim Aliyu proved to be too much for SKC to overcome.
In the last article about this matchup, we highlighted how Houston was quite fortunate to be sitting on four victories. They benefited from multiple goals that felt a little fluky, terrible decisions by officiating crews and some fortunate bounces. Being able to secure those victories without Hector Herrera should be something the Dynamo fans should be grateful for, as HH has finally regained form.
Austin and Houston are very similar in their approach to the game, with both teams placing an emphasis on possession and playing solid defense. With just 11 goals in 11 games, Houston has struggled to generate quality looks on net on a consistent basis. I wouldn’t put it past head coach Ben Olsen to take a page out of Austin’s book and be incredibly conservative when visiting Q2. The Dynamo may be content to allow Austin possession and beg the Verde to come out of their defensive shell and try to catch us on the break. Since possession is such a key component to Olsen’s tactics, the Dynamo will have to be patient about ceding the ball to Austin. I believe Houston would be quite content to get a point on the road in a venue where they’ve never recorded one. The orange team played last Wednesday in the Open Cup, last night (5/11) in Kansas City, have their matchup with Austin on 5/15 and then close out rivalry week at home versus Dallas – a game that most likely holds more weight to the coaching staff. Seeing as winning at home is a universal language across MLS, if there was a time for some heavy rotation, it’s in the game versus Austin.
Austin’s Recent Form:
Well, there’s that bad luck rearing its ugly head. A truly unfortunate pass by Sebastian Driussi gave Petar Musa a one-on-one with Stuver that opened up the scoring early in Austin’s game against FC Dallas on Saturday night. Simply put, it was the worst turnover of Sebastian Driussi’s Austin FC tenure and a play that changed the entire dynamic of the game immediately. It was a gift. As we’ve discussed in-depth, the margins for this team are truly razor-thin, and when you gift a goal to your opponent in the opening moments of a game, the hill to climb becomes incredibly steep. It becomes even more steep when a mind-numbingly terrible call by the officiating crew takes away a clear goal scoring chance.
With Dani Pereira streaking towards the box with the ball at his feet, Asier Illarramendi intentionally pulls him down by the back of his shirt. Fighting through the illegal contact, Pepe was able to move the ball forward to Emiliano Rigoni, who is in on net against Maarten Paes. The ref blew the play dead even though Austin still had the ball and was about to have a high chance at evening the score. Hearing the whistle, Paes stops playing as Rigoni slots the ball near post. Standing there with a pompous smile, the ref dismisses Austin’s furious complaints with a childish and smug smile. He then reaches into his pocket and pulls out ONLY a yellow card. Truly awful officiating in a pivotal moment of the match.
Can you tell I’m still a bit upset about it? Ultimately, there’s nothing to be done about piss-poor officiating, it’s part of the game, and, unfortunately, impacts results. The response from Austin as a whole is what we need to focus on. The team responded with poise, a controlled anger and an intensity that saw them create dangerous looks throughout the remaining portion of the first half. Despite Dallas parking the bus as early as I’ve seen in a long time, Austin was still able to generate chances in a variety of fashions.
Before last night’s defeat, Austin was one of the hottest teams in the league and had earned impressive results in a number of ways. Sometimes, calls and bounces don’t go your way in this game, and when they are compounded with self-inflicted wounds, it usually results in a loss. Fortunately, the turnaround time between games is fast as Houston visits The 512 on Wednesday, so the opportunity to get this sour taste out of our collective mouths should be one we are looking forward to.
One thing that we’ve preached on the pod is that this team had shown a lot of fight, regardless of what the scoreboard says. That fight and commitment led to increased belief and confidence as positive results started to roll in. I anticipate the confidence levels in that locker room are still high even after the defeat in Frisco.
Despite the result, the team showed a fresh style of aggressive play after Seba's disastrous turnover. I’m encouraged by this, and I think the fan base should be as well. Dallas had decided to park the bus after receiving the early gift, but Austin still found ways to break down that low block and generate high-quality looks. If my assumptions are correct, then Houston will allow Austin to control the ball as well and sit back in their defensive formation. While it will be important for Austin to try to find ways to break lines, I think it’s important to stay true to who we are. We don’t need to overreact to this loss and throw the pragmatism we have relied on out the window in favor of overextending ourselves early for a goal. We’ve already shown that we can beat this team on the road, and we should expect to do that again in the friendly confines of Q2 Stadium.
Injury Report:
ATX - Ethan Finlay (Questionable - Hamstring), Guilherme Biro (Questionable - Hamstring)
HOU - Franco Escobar (Questionable - Lower Body), Nelson Quinones (OUT - Knee), Carlos Ferreira (OUT - Lower Body), Daniel Steres (OUT - Hip)
Houston Players to Watch:
Hector Herrera - He’s as good as they get in this league outside of the stars in Miami. Even at 34 years of age, the former Mexican national team standout is still as impactful as ever at the MLS level. When he came on in the first matchup, we altered our defensive shape to account for him, that’s the type of gravity he demands. He will generate looks for teammates and stifle offensive rhythm throughout the course of the game. It’s just what he does, and it’s near impossible to stop. Austin must make it hard on him to operate on the ball and make him work defensively to wear the veteran down in the midst of a brutal stretch of schedule congestion for Houston.
Sebastian Kowalczyk - He’s not as feisty as Diego Rubio, but he’s got plenty of attitude to pair with his physical style of play. Kowalczyk was a pest in the first matchup and very well could have been in on net for an attempt against Stuver had he not been offside by the slightest of margins. With the idea that Houston will play a more conservative game making sense to me, the limited chances that the Dynamo create will need to be precise if they are going to steal points at Q2 Stadium for the first time in club history.
Austin Players to Watch:
Žan Kolmanič - Biro pulled up lame on the Jesus Ferreira breakaway goal on Saturday and it seems unlikely he’ll be available for the midweek game. Time for Žan to step up. Whether he’s dealing with Amine Bassi, Sebastian Kowalczyk or Coco Carrasquilla, it will be a tall task. As we mentioned in Episode 142, one of the key elements to the more aggressive offensive approach by Austin after giving up the early goal was releasing Jon Gallagher up the sideline. You cannot do that in this matchup with the presence of Aliyu. It’s just too much to ask of Jon to be that far pushed up the field and still be able to track back to a sprinting Aliyu. Does that mean Kolmanic could be released to play that more aggressive role on his side if Austin goes behind? Potentially, but the key here is that Jon is going to have his hands full on the opposite side with the speed of Aliyu, which may lead to a more skewed possession distribution on the left side. We know what Zan brings in regard to sweeping crosses, but he’ll have to be crisp if the ball is consistently finding his feet for Austin to be successful.
Sebastián Driussi - He owes us one. All year we have raved at Seba’s growth from a maturity and leadership standpoint. Now, he faces an obstacle. His turnover to Petar Musa was the worst play of his career in Austin. He knows it and will take ownership of that. He’s still Sebastián Driussi, one of the best players in the league, and he’ll be the focal point for everything we do come Wednesday. If his second-half Rabona cross was any indication of his confidence levels, then it’s safe to assume that he knows he made a mistake but won’t let it affect him. I fully expect Seba to be the factor that propels us to victory.
Austin’s Keys to the Game:
Respond! - We were the better team versus Dallas, but they walked away with three points – it is what it is. Now, it’s time to respond and cement the fact that we were the better team by taking our frustration out on Houston. Assessing how Houston is approaching this match is step one in my eyes. If they’re ultra-conservative, then let’s adjust accordingly. Houston is the team that needs to get creative in order to secure road points, while we’re the team that can secure a win by staying true to who we are.
No Gifts 2.0 - Last preview this section was titled “No Gifts,” and after last night it seems appropriate to hammer that point home. Austin is a team with a longer-than-we’d-like track record of atrocious giveaways at the back, and we saw the first one of the 2024 season last night. No more. As long as we don’t shoot ourselves in the foot, we win this game.
Predictions:
E - 2-0 Austin FC
ZG - 2-1 Austin FC
