Match Preview - NYCFC
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:40pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
This is the first time that Austin FC and NYCFC have met in a competitive match.
The two clubs have previously played two friendlies. First behind closed doors during the Leagues Cup break in 2023, a 2-1 NYCFC win. Then most recently in the 2024 preseason, also closed to the public, which went down as a 3-2 Austin FC victory in regulation and a 4-4 tally after the clubs played an additional 30 minute period.
NYCFC Recent Form
Coming into this match, NYCFC represents the only MLS team that Austin FC has never played a competitive fixture against. The City Football Group owned squad had a down season in 2023, finishing 11th in the Eastern Conference and 22nd in the Supporter’s Shield standings. It was their worst finish in the table since their expansion season back in 2015 when they were 8th and 17th respectively and a far cry from their 2021 MLS Cup winning form.
Things were looking up to begin the 2024 campaign. One major factor in NYC’s 2023 struggles was an incomplete roster to begin the year (sounds like another club we know this season), and their front office made sure to have their ducks in a row this preseason. They added a number of exciting names like Osman Bukari’s former Red Star teammate, 18-year-old striker Jovan Mijatović, for an $8.6 million transfer fee. Then there was Argentine youth international winger Agustín Ojeda who, like Mijatović, occupies a U22 Initiative slot. Then they also brought former Borussia Mönchengladbach winger Hannes Wolf on board. Things were looking up. Then the season started.
The Pigeons had a rough start. They lost their first three league matches by an aggregate score of 5-1 and secured just one victory in their first seven. Mijatović had trouble both acclimating to his new teammates and staying healthy. Ojeda played 30 total minutes across their first five games and Wolf didn’t register a goal contribution until late April. Head coach Nick Cushing was the first coach that many national pundits deemed “on the hot seat”.
Then, something clicked. While Austin was reeling off six wins in nine matches over in the Western Conference, one of the few teams in better form over that stretch was NYC. From April 13 to May 31 they won eight out of nine league matches, catapulting themselves into the top four of the Eastern Conference. Although they’ve cooled a bit of late, losing three of their last five, those losses were against the likes of Columbus Crew and LA Galaxy.
The main catalyst of their success on the pitch, as expected, has been designated player Santiago Rodríguez. He’s got 15 goal contributions in his 21 matches played in 2024, which puts him 11th league wide. When he gets on the ball this Saturday, expect Rodríguez to spray dangerous chance creating passes every which way, setting up the likes of striker Mounsef Bakrar, forward Alonso Martínez and of course wing options like Wolf and Ojeda.
NYCFC did have a midweek game on Wednesday, a 2-0 win over CF Montreal. The victory put them in fourth place in the Eastern Conference. But while they entered the match with just one player (Superdraft pick Malachi Jones) on the injury report, they lost veteran midfielder Maxi Moralez early in the first half to a lower body issue. With his recent injury track record, my expectation is that he will be out against Austin. They also subbed out center back Birk Risa at halftime after he limped off at the break. Safe to assume he’s questionable at best for the weekend. There is certainly potential for some further rotation in their squad when lineups come out on Saturday evening, but like I mentioned above, this is a deep and complete roster. Austin FC is going to have their hands full no matter who takes the pitch for the Pigeons this weekend.
Austin’s Recent Form
For what feels like the first time in a while, the schedule was kind to Austin FC this week. A bye in the midweek was much needed after the egg laid in Kansas City last Saturday. That loss sparked an angry wave of “what gives?” from Verde fans, including the pair of us here at The North End Podcast. There was a visible lack of leadership from those whom it is expected, both on the pitch and the sideline.
It's a long season. Bad games can and do happen to every team, not just Austin FC, and that’s okay to an extent. But when you toss in last Saturday’s result with the body of work on the road for the full season? Yikes.
We know that this team is purposefully playing more conservative away from Q2 Stadium this season. On paper, I very much agree with this strategy considering the state of the roster through the first 20 games of the year. But in my opinion, what cannot continue to happen is the absolute toothless nature of the attack. Want to sit back and absorb pressure to limit high quality chances with an organized and compact defense? All for it. But if you do concede, there must be a response!
I’m not even necessarily asking for an equalizing goal every time the team does go down on the road, and it’s flat out silly to shove to the side the reality of road matches being extremely tough in MLS, especially relative to the average first division globally. But to not at least be able to give the impression that the team has the cohesiveness, talent, and after last weekend, mentality to threaten the opposition? It’s unacceptable no matter what team, league, or sport you’re playing.
That said, I don’t believe what we saw from Austin FC against Sporting is an accurate representation of their level, especially from the mental side of things. This squad has scratched and clawed their way to being in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race when the masses had not only counted them out but picked them to finish last. A large part of ATX exceeding the rock bottom expectations to this point of the season has been multiple strong showings of grit and character amongst the group.
They’ll need to revert back to their underdog mentality on Saturday, because they are very much that (+165 is the worst odds of any of the nine home teams listed for Saturday’s matches as of this writing on DK Sportsbook). Julio Cascante has returned to the team, but ATX isn’t hurting at center back. Coach Wolff hinted at a potential injury for Žan Kolmanič during Wednesday’s media availability, which could ding the depth at fullback. They’ll still be without Dani Pereira in the midfield, regardless of Venezuela’s Friday result against Canada, as Pepe will be suspended for yellow card accumulation once he’s activated. They’ll also miss Diego Rubio this weekend for the same reason. 90 minutes of Gyasi Zardes up top? Time to earn that $1 million salary my friend!
Injury Report
ATX – Dani Pereira (Out – Not due to injury), Diego Rubio (Out – Yellow Card Accumulation)
NYC – Malachi Jones (Out – Leg), Maxi Morales (Out – Leg), Birk Risa (Out – Leg), Christian McFarlane (Out - Leg)
NYCFC Players To Watch
Santiago Rodríguez – The 24-year-old Uruguayan midfielder is the engine of the NYCFC attack. He came to New York on loan from his boyhood club Nacional back in 2021 and was a part of the MLS Cup winning team that season. He then signed a new DP contract prior to the 2023 season that tied him to the club through 2027. Rodríguez has 49 goal contributions through 105 career appearances with the Pigeons.
Matt Freese – Like our beloved Brad Stuver, Freese was an all-star snub this season. In fact, Stuver even made a post about Freese not getting the nod on his Instagram story last week. The goalkeeper’s union is strong! Freese leads MLS in PSxG +/-, which is post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed. It’s one of the stronger metrics we have to measure the shot stopping ability of goal keepers and one that we used frequently this year to make the case for Stuver when he was leading the pack (he has since dropped to 10th on that list). Freese is a good keeper and very much in form right now. It says something about his all-star candidacy that I would rather see any of the three keepers who were tabbed for the event in net this weekend than Freese. It’s been a very tough task to score on the 25-year-old in 2024.
Hannes Wolf – The 25-year-old Wolf arrived in NYC this offseason with more than 2,000 minutes in the Bundesliga to his name and another 1,500 in the English Championship. After a bit of a slow start he’s now tallied 10 goal contributions for the Pigeons in 21 appearances. He’s a crafty player in the offensive third and if NYCFC break through on Saturday, expect him to be a part of it.
Austin’s Keys To The Game
Mentality – Didn’t think this would need to be a point of emphasis in July but here we are. I think the entirety of the Austin FC fanbase can agree that what we saw last weekend was not up to par. I expect to see a more energized, cohesive and combative Verde and Black once the first whistle blows on Saturday.
Take the Heat – I don’t think it’s fair to say that Austin has been able to take advantage of the extreme temperatures during the summer months over the first three seasons of play. I understand that practicing and playing the majority of the time in this climate does not make one immune to the intensity of the Texas heat, but one would like to think it would become an advantage over time. NYCFC just played 90 on Wednesday. It gets hot in New York City, but not like central Texas. Punish their tired legs and turn up the (literal and figurative) heat.
The North End’s Predictions
ZG – 1-0 Austin FC
E – 1-0 Austin FC
