Match Preview - Portland Timbers
Game Info
Kickoff: 6:55pm CT
Watch: Apple TV/FOX
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 3W - 1D - 6L against Portland Timbers.
These two teams already faced off this season, with the shorthanded Timbers coming away with all three points at home on a late free kick goal by David Da Costa, which was maybe more a result of poor communication and execution by Austin rather than skill by Portland’s designated player.
Portland coming to Q2 Stadium elicits some good memories for long time fans of the Verde and Black. They were the opponent for Austin’s first home win in club history, a 4-1 win back on July 1, 2021. The good guys were also able to thrash the Timbers two months later by a 3-1 scoreline.
But since those two home games during Austin’s expansion season, the Timbers have dominated this series, winning six of the last eight meetings including all three at Q2 Stadium.
Portland Timbers Recent Form
It’s been just over a month since we last discussed the Timbers at length, but this is a very different team coming to Q2 for the first match of April. At Providence Park in Week 2 of the MLS season, Portland was missing a number of their top players who have since returned to the lineup.
The player from that group you’re likely to notice the most on Saturday is Santiago Moreno, one of the four U22 Initiative players on this Timbers roster. He’ll be on the ball a ton, as he ranks in the 89th percentile in touches and 85th percentile in chances created over the last calendar year among attacking midfielders in the Men’s Next 14 leagues. Moreno has already made a huge impression on this Portland side through his 304 minutes this season, ranking either first or second on the team in progressive carries, progressive passes and progressive passes recieved per 90 minutes. Paired with new designated player Da Costa in the starting lineup over the last three matches, Portland’s midfield has begun to generate offensive numbers that look similar to last season’s massive output of 1.91 goals per game, recording seven goals on 5.1 xG in that span.
The Timbers have also welcomed back the majority of their back line that was absent last month, including Kamal Miller, Juan Mosquera and Dario Zuparic. Miller, a one-time expansion draft pick of Austin FC and former MLS All-Star, missed the first meeting due to an early red card in the season opener. He’s been playing at center back this season after spending a lot of time at left back in 2024 for Portland.
Mosquera may be an even more important piece of the Portland back line. Initially signed on a U22 Initiative contract in 2022, the right back inked an extension in the early parts of last season that moved him off of the U22 designation, as he turned 22 in the final month the 2024 season. He started all 34 regular season matches for the Timbers last year, leading the team in minutes.
Portland has settled into their preferred 4-2-3-1 in possession after having to patch together some alternate looks to begin the season due to their multiple absences. In fact, their ten points through six matches is actually the club’s second best start in Timbers history, a somewhat shocking stat considering the team was brought into MLS as an expansion side in 2009. Austin on the other hand already has two better starts in the club’s first five seasons.
As I touched on above, the Timbers have been very dangerous offensively over the last three games, especially on the counter. Getting healthy has allowed them to move Antony from the right wingback position he occupied to start the season up to his more natural position on the wing in the attack. He leads Portland in goals so far this season with four, although one was a gift courtesy of Houston’s Jack McGlynn last Sunday, who played a back pass so woefully short that Antony ended up being able to just tap it home into an open net after the Dynamo’s third string keeper Blake Gillingham (who was on trial with Austin FC to begin the preseason) whiffed on a desperate clearance attempt while colliding with Portland forward Felipe Mora.
That said, don’t discount how dangerous Antony can be in transition. As E mentioned on Episode 212 on Thursday, Antony drew five of the nine fouls committed by Austin FC when these teams met last month and his blazing speed on the counter was on display against Houston last weekend. He’s one of the main targets that both Da Costa and Moreno will look to feed and likely the biggest danger to get in behind Austin’s back line if they’re playing a higher line at home this Saturday.
Defensively, this team can be beat. The Timbers didn’t do much to fortify their back line In the offseason and while they haven’t had a full-on stinker yet this season, this is a team that gave up 56 goals last season (10th most in MLS) with essentially the same personnel. For reference, as bad as Austin was in 2024, they conceded just 48 goals.
Austin FC Recent Form
Like E said on Episode 211, we’re getting close to having dangerous levels of confidence in this team. We’re just 17.6% of the way through the MLS regular season schedule and the table is still very congested, but it’s better to be at the top end of the scrum rather than the bottom, where Austin FC has mostly resided over the last two seasons.
Just a point off of the pace in the both the Western Conference and the Supporter’s Shield standings, the Verde and Black have a big time opportunity in front of them this Saturday, especially with the two teams ahead of them in the Supporter’s Shield table, Vancouver Whitecaps and Inter Miami, playing in the CONCACAF Champions Cup quarterfinals this week and next in addition to their regularly scheduled MLS fixtures.
Dropping points at home this Saturday could throw some cold water on our hopes of a meteoric early season rise up the table. While ATX can almost taste the lead in the Western Conference, they’re still just three points above eighth place LAFC. We’re still in the part of the year where the standings shift wildly each match day.
Head coach Nico Estévez and center back Brendan Hines-Ike addressed the media on Thursday morning and it appears that Austin came away from last Sunday’s road win with no new injuries to report. As a plus, We Are Austin TV’s Alex Sanabria gave the Verde faithful a clip of Austin’s lone occupant on the injury report, Mikkel Desler, doing some individual drills as practice wound down. Estévez said Desler is on pace to return in the original six to eight week timeframe they established after the injury a few weeks back.
Hines-Ike offered some additional insight into how we might see Austin FC approach this match on Saturday. He spoke about how the schedule and play styles of their opponents over the last three weeks have been big factors in ATX having so little possession, a stretch that has the Verde and Black averaging the least amount of ball possession of any team in MLS through six weeks. Hines-Ike, who wore the captain’s armband last week with Ilie Sanchez in a reserve role, also stated that the team has proven they can defend in a low block to preserve a lead. Now they’re prepping to play a bit more forward against Portland, meaning they’ll have a higher line of confrontation and be more susceptible on the counter. We’ll see if that ends up coming to pass, but the idea of our favorite team being the aggressor out of the gates on Saturday is an exciting one.
I’m biased, but it certainly feels like Austin FC hasn’t come close to hitting their ceiling on the offensive side of the ball. While each designated player (Brandon Vazquez, Osman Bukari and Myrto Uzuni) has now gotten on the scoresheet, we’re still waiting for an Austin player to record a second goal. I think at least one of that trio scores again this weekend as they continue to put in the reps together, both in training and in live action.
Speaking of Uzuni, it was revealed by Estévez on Thursday that the Albanian’s pregnant wife is due at some point in the next two weeks. He stated that Uzuni has not informed the club of his decision to return to Europe when that time comes, but another Uzuni absence is something to file away and probably expect at some point this month.
Like we discussed on Thursday’s preview episode, I assume the coaching staff is facing two decisions for Saturday’s starting lineup. First, the choice on who’s the odd man out in the midfield between Owen Wolff, Besard Sabovic, Dani Pereira and Sanchez. I lean that Ilie will be inserted back into the starting group, while E thinks Estévez will roll the same three as Sunday. Second, does Julio Cascante re-enter the lineup or will Oleksandr Svatok, who has started each of team’s last three wins, keep that spot next to Hines-Ike? Either way, it’s good to have more than 11 starting caliber players! We spent many years without the luxury of real depth on this roster.
My final note this week is weather related. Forecasts call for temperatues to dip during Saturday’s match to the point where we could see a wind chill in the high 40’s by the time the final whistle blows. If you got caught unprepared in the cold in similar conditions against Colorado, make sure to bring an extra layer this weekend!
Injury Report
ATX:
Mikkel Desler (Out - Hamstring)
Diego Rubio (Out - Hamstring)
POR:
Jonathan Rodriguez (Out - Knee)
Miguel Araujo (Out - Not injury related)
Portland Timbers Players to Watch
David Da Costa - When we last saw Da Costa he was making his first MLS start against our favorite team. He netted the match winning goal that many Austin fans would consider a bit “lucky,” but lucky goals count all the same. Since that time, he’s helped elevate Portland to sixth place in the Western Conference table, just two points behind ATX. Da Costa leads Portland in progressive carries, progressive passes, key passes and shot creating actions. He’s maybe not up to the same MVP caliber level as Evander was for the Timbers last season, but he’s doing a decent impression of the recently departed midfielder.
Santiago Moreno - One of the four U22 Initiative players on this Portland roster, Moreno was unavailable due to injury in the first meeting between these teams. He’s been an awesome asset for this team over the last four seasons, racking up 53 goal contributions in 113 appearances. For a reference point that hits close to home, the sum of Austin’s all-time U22 Initiative player’s goal contributions is 19 across 153 appearances (Rodney Redes, Moussa Djitte, pre-2025 Žan Kolmanič and Nicolas Dubersarsky). Portland’s offensive play has been elevated since Moreno returned to the lineup and he leads the team in both shot and goal creating actions per 90 minutes.
Diego Chara - The 38-year-old club legend is still wearing the armband for the Timbers. While he came off the bench against Austin earlier this season, he’s started and gone the full 90 in each of Portland’s last three games. He’s the emotional leader of the Timbers defense and is able to disrupt opposing offenses effectively even though he stands just 5’7” 143lb. The sheer size of Austin’s front three gives them the leg up on almost any team in MLS. Pair that with the physical strength in the ATX midfield with Wolff and Sabovic and it’s clear that the home team cannot allow Chara to dictate how they progress the ball forward. If Chara is winning that battle early, it could be a long night at the Q.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Rack ‘Em Up - The last time we were at Q2 Stadium, Austin FC put up multiple goals for the first and only time this season. The consensus among the fanbase was that the Verde and Black left some goals out there on the pitch against San Diego. The chances should come against this Portland defense. We’re overdue for a game with three or more goals scored at home. I’m perfectly fine with another one goal win, as we always say on the podcast, we don’t care how you get it done just bring us home the three points. But I’d be lying if I said it wouldn’t be more fun to blow a team out for once. Let’s get it done boys, for Deebo!
The Tie We Want To See - In this spot last week we kept a secret between us that Austin FC could earn the longest winning streak for the club in nearly three seasons. Despite throwing that information out there as a possible jinx, the soccer gods did not punish us for our optimism. I’m not advocating for a draw in this match. On the contrary, a win on Saturday would tie the club record for longest winning streak at four. Now that is a tie I want to see!
Predictions
ZG - 3-1 Austin FC
E - 3-1 Austin FC
