Match Preview - Portland Timbers
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:40pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has a record of 2W-4L-1D all time against Portland Timbers. Austin’s two victories came in the first two meetings between the clubs in 2021, both at Q2 Stadium.
Austin earned their first point at Providence Park last May on a late Will Bruin equalizer from Owen Wolff after Sebastián Driussi was unexpectedly ruled out. Portland defeated the Verde and Black 2-1 when the two met in Austin.
Portland Timbers Recent Form
Despite a midfield that was clicking down the stretch, the Timbers fell short of a postseason berth in 2023, finishing a touch ahead of Austin FC in the Western Conference standings. The mediocre campaign launched a busy offseason for Portland, who jettisoned two DPs in Yimmi Chara and Jaroslaw Niezgoda. They hired Phil Neville to fill the head coaching vacancy left in the wake of Gio Savarese being let go. Portland also added familiar names like Maxime Crépeau and Kamal Miller to bolster the back line, but they began 2024 without filling the final DP slot.
It didn’t take long for the Timbers to take a big swing however, as they acquired Uruguayan forward Jonathan “Cabecita” Rodriguez from Club América for a fee of reportedly less than $5 million in mid-March. He’s hit the ground running with Portland, with eight goal contributions in his 11 appearances. Unfortunately for the Timbers faithful, that production hasn’t transated to much success results-wise. In fact, Portland has been one of the coldest teams over the last couple of months league wide.
After beginning the season with seven points from their first three matches, including a road win at NYCFC, the Timbers went more than two full months without a win, recording just three points over a nine-match span. That streak was broken on May 15 in a controversial 4-2 home victory over the San Jose Earthquakes that saw a questionable red card turn a 0-2 Portland deficit into three points.
Another home victory over Sporting KC this past Saturday has Portland on the up and up headed to Q2 on Wednesday. But like Austin, the Timbers have another match on Saturday, a home tilt against the Houston Dynamo. As we discussed on Episode 146, out of their three matches in this eight-day span, seeing some rotation in the one match away from Providence Park wouldn’t be the craziest idea in the world. That would certainly be a welcome sight for Austin players, coaches and fans alike.
Austin’s Recent Form
It was always going to be tough for the Verde and Black to top the week that was out in San Jose. Coming off of thrilling home wins over Houston Dynamo and Sporting KC, fans were then treated to the 24-hour whirlwind of Emiliano Rigoni being bought out and reports of the club inking Ghanian winger Osman Bukari to a deal that will fill the vacated DP slot. Anything short of a win would pale in comparison vibes-wise.
But Austin was able to scrap a point for themselves late Saturday, once again escaping a barrage of shot attempts from a road opponent with a result that inches them ever closer to the goal of a playoff berth in 2024. It’s remarkable to me how much my own mindset has changed watching this team away from Q2 Stadium, even in the last two months alone. There hasn’t been a single time, in my opinion, that Austin has been a truly threatening team offensively on the road this year, but they keep banking points, now sitting on six from their seven matches. Coach Josh Wolff has stated many times that a point per game on the road (and two per game at home) are the goals this team has set their sights on.
Achieving that over a full season would mean a 51-point pace for Austin FC, and in 2023 that point total would have been good for the fourth seed and homefield advantage in a first round series. ATX is currently a hair above that pace, with 1.53 points per game through 15 matches played. As we’ve mentioned on the show, the points that Austin has banked through the first half of the year puts them well above the traditional pace for a playoff berth, which is around 44 total points (or ~1.3 points per match). If playoffs (no matter the seed) are the goal, then Austin needs to grab 21 points from their remaining 19 matches to get in.
With the way this week’s schedule is laid out, three points at home on Wednesday is key to staying ahead of the curve before the team’s first bye week of 2024. A trip to the elevation in Salt Lake to take on the Western Conference leaders looms on Saturday on even shorter rest, so being able to record a victory against the Timbers would make the next match feel like “house money” for me as a fan. I don’t expect Jon Gallagher to be able to go against Portland, so my largest concern headed into this match is the right back spot. I do think we see a tag team of Hector Jimenez and Owen Wolff man the position once again but don’t be shocked if a guy like Ethan Finlay also makes an appearance there. With eight games to go until the summer transfer window opens, it’s all hands on deck when we’ve got a key injury at a position of need.
Injury Report
ATX – Jon Gallagher (Questionable – Adductor)
POR – Santiago Moreno (Questionable – Leg), Marvin Loria (OUT – Knee)
Portland Players To Watch
Evander – The Timbers’ talisman midfielder is a joy to watch, as long as it’s not your favorite team he’s calmly dissecting. He arrived in Portland prior to the 2023 season after four years with Midtjylland in Denmark, piling up nearly 2,000 minutes in the UEFA Champions League and Europa League. Evander currently leads the Timbers in goal contributions with 12 in his 11 appearances in 2024. He also scored the game winning goal at Q2 Stadium last September in a big blow to the Verde & Black’s shrinking postseason chances in 2023. Keeping him out of the box score in a tall task.
Jonathan “Cabecita” Rodriguez – The most proven goal scorer on the roster, Cabecita tallied 21 goals and 7 assists in his 65 appearances with Club América from 2022 to early 2024. As mentioned earlier, he’s wasted no time making a big impression in the Pacific Northwest with eight goal contributions in 910 minutes. His skillset is going to put a big strain on the Austin back line, especially with all-star Jon Gallagher expected to miss this match.
Juan Mosquera – After being acquired as a U22 initiaitve player in the summer of 2022, Mosquera has been a mainstay in the Timbers starting group. Amongst all MLS defenders last season, he was first in fast breaks, fourth in successful crosses from open play and ninth in chances created from open play. He was named to the MLS 22 Under 22 list last season (alongside Owen Wolff) and is also a frequent call up to the Columbian national team. Although he’s just 21 years old, Mosquera inked an extension back in February, transitioning him from U22 to TAM player and keeping him tied to Portland through at least 2027. He’s the only player to start all 15 league matches for the Timbers in 2024.
Austin’s Keys To The Game
Turnaround Time – With less than four days between kickoffs, Austin FC will be playing with tired legs. It’s no excuse, as their opponents also played a match at the exact same time on Saturday night. The Verde and Black will no doubt have to fight through some fatigue, but they’ll also have to rely on the little depth that they have to make an impact. Being able to bounce back quickly on double-game weeks is a sign of a good team in this league. Austin did it once already this month, let’s see if they can turn around and do it again to close out May.
Bring the Noise – After Rodo’s letter to the fans following the win against Houston, the vibes were just as high against Sporting KC three nights later. Austin FC is currently riding a club record five game home winning streak and it’s thanks in part to the energy of the fans, as ATX has trailed in three of those five matches. After Wednesday’s match, the Verde faithful will have just one chance to see their boys in action at Q2 Stadium until July 6th. If you’re attending this match, make every second in the stands count!
The ”F” Word – I’ve gone out of my way to avoid calling Q2 Stadium a certain term during this streak. Too many let downs and cold streaks over the last year-plus for me to jump on board so quickly. But if they can pull out three points on Wednesday, I’ll have no choice but to give in to the fun. Going for six in a row and eight unbeaten, I think the boys get it done in front of the home fans against Portland.
The North End’s Predictions
ZG – 2-1 Austin FC
E – 2-1 Austin FC
