Match Preview - Real Salt Lake
Game Info
Kickoff: 8:40pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: America First Stadium - Sandy, UT
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has 4W - 3L - 0D all-time record versus Real Salt Lake.
The road team won both meetings last season, with Austin FC taking the first matchup 2-1 behind long distance goals from Jon Gallagher and Owen Wolff. Then Real Salt Lake won the weather delayed game at Q2 Stadium 2-1, with two Rubio Rubin goals and a great performance by backup goal keeper Gavin Beavers.
Real Salt Lake Recent Form
Salt Lake has held the top spot in the Western Conference for most of the season. They have been extremely consistent with their form and have only lost two matches this season, with no L’s since March 9 in league play. Their team is led by Cristian Arango, who already has 21 goal contributions in 16 games and is currently tied for most goals in the league with DC United’s Christian Benteke. Andrés Gómez is one of the brightest young stars in the league and has contributed 8 goals and 5 assists through the early parts of season.
The reason why RSL has been so good in 2024 isn’t just because of those two guys however. Salt Lake has talented players across the board, including Diego Luna, Anderson Julio, former MLS SuperDraft pick Emeka Eneli, and Brayan Vera. Head coach Pablo Mastroeni has this team playing fluidly and with continuity. A quick look at the stats cements Real Salt Lake’s dominance this season. They are second in goals per match, sixth in goals conceded per match, seventh in xG, and fourth in clean sheets. With 45 big chances and 5.6 shots on target per game, Real Salt Lake is an offensive force to be reckoned with.
As I mentioned above, Salt Lake has not lost a match in league play in nearly three months and is coming off miracle road draws against both Dallas and Seattle this week. Please go watch the comeback RSL had versus Dallas, it’ll bring true joy to your life as an Austin fan. After falling behind 3-0 in the second half thanks to two horrendous blunders by goalkeeper Zac MacMath, the Claret and Cobalt mounted a furious comeback that saw them level the game in the eighth minute of stoppage time, as Frisco tears flooded Toyota Stadium.
Individual defense will be imperative for Austin as they stare down the barrel of this vaunted RSL attack, whether it’s Arango, Luna, Gómez, Julio, or others, it’ll be important to stay in front of their attack and give us a chance by forcing them to shots outside the Austin “red zone.”
Austin’s Recent Form
The luck pendulum swung back away from Austin FC on Wednesday night and the soccer gods came to collect after a two month stretch full of fortunate results. It is what it is. From a statistical standpoint, Austin FC dominated the matchup versus Portland, outshooting the Timbers 15 to 8, out-possessing them 63% to 37%, and generating 2.23 xG to Portland’s 1.70.
It’s great to see those metrics when pouring over the box score, but the only stat we truly care about is WINS, and the team didn’t get the job done. I harken back to ugly draws where we were thoroughly outplayed by the likes of Seattle, San Jose, or Vancouver, and how those points mean so much in this moment, as we have consistently highlighted throughout this season on the podcast. Despite losing, Austin remains 5th in a tight Western Conference, the same spot they occupied coming into the midweek matchday.
The major news coming out of last night’s affair was that Sebastián Driussi went down in the second half with an apparent groin injury. Seba has been known to, let’s say, exaggerate his injuries at times, so it’s hard to gauge the severity of this knock. That said, I do not expect to see him suit up in Utah. In fact, if he’s not 100%, then I would prefer not to see him at all. This is the last match of a grueling month for Austin before they head into the the international break and the first “bye” week of the season. I’d rather roll the dice with how we’ve seen this team perform as an underdog on the road versus the best opponent in the Western Conference with a shorthanded lineup, rather than go all-in at the expense of Driussi’s long-term availability. As always, we’ll keep an eye on the injury reports and press conferences to make sure you’re up to date with all the happenings.
Overall, the month of May was a success for Austin, tallying eight points out of an available 15. That is an appropriate pace for where this team wants to position itself when the summer transfer window hits in mid-July before making the final push towards the playoffs as reinforcements arrive.
Speaking of reinforcements, as of today, Osman Bukari is officially Verde and Black! That’s incredible work by the front office. Getting his visa paperwork started in late May could allow Austin’s newest DP to play as early as July 20th against Charlotte FC.
The focus right now is on Saturday though, in a challenging place to play, dealing with both the elevation and the surplus of offensive firepower that RSL has at their disposal. I expect our shape to be an incredibly compact and conservative one, a strategy that has allowed us to find points in difficult road matchups. RSL can hit you in a multitude of ways, so being disciplined, and as I hinted at above, and winning your individual defensive assignments will be how Austin stays alive in this game.
On Episode 147, ZG hinted at a potential formation switch if Seba is a no-go. I liked what he had to say about that approach, highlighting that our deepest position at the moment is at centerback. Flanking a trio of Julio Cascante, Brendan Hines-Ike, and Leo Väisänen (or maybe a fresh set of legs in Matt Hedges), with Guilherme Biro, and a potentially healthy Jon Gallagher, may be our best approach. We’ll see what comes of the lineup, but strap in for another episode of concessionary football with a very conservative offensive approach.
Injury Report
ATX - Sebastián Driussi (Questionable - Groin), Ethan Finlay (Questionable - Hamstring)
RSL - Kevin Bonilla (Out - Knee), Erik Holt (Out - Hamstring), Pablo Ruiz (Out - Knee), Marcelo Silva (Out - Hamstring), Bode Hidalgo (Questionable - Hamstring), Maikel Chang (Ankle - Questionable), Anderson Julio (Head - Questionable)
RSL Players to Watch
Chicho Arango - The man is as good as they get in regards to scoring goals in this league, as can be seen with his 13 scores – which ties him for tops in the golden boot race. Chicho is crafty and a skillful finisher. He will be a player that will always need to be accounted for and hopefully, we can get some blocks and find ways to keep him off the scoresheet.
Diego Luna - Every time I watch Luna he just seems to pop off the screen. The former member of El Paso Locomotive has six goal contributions in 941 minutes this season. He’s got an excellent motor and pairs that with sneaky good passing ability to set his teammates up for success.
Austin Players to Watch
Diego Rubio - Another quiet week from Rubio, not in regard to his mouth (as he’s back on yellow card accumulation warning), but in his impact on the game. He’s looked a bit weary as of late, and with Driussi’s status in question, it’s time for Diego to step up and fill the scoring void.
Bradley Scott Stuver - Obligatory and friendly reminder, All-Star voting is up and you should go vote for Brad Stuver right now! Hope his gloves are ready – he’s most likely going to be dealing with a plethora of shots once again. The defense will be structured to allow RSL to take shots from outside the box with bodies in the way. We have to concede these types of chances to more talented teams since we know that we cannot get into a track meet with them. Brad will be relied upon heavily, and I’m ok with that. He’s one of our best players and has my full trust.
Austin’s Keys to the Game
Five Back? - As ZG mentioned in episode 147, this may be the perfect opportunity to bust out the five-back shape. We have depth at the centerback position and can do our best to mitigate the speed of RSL with the likes of Biro and Jonny G (if he’s ready to go) in the wing-back slot. When Seba missed extended time last season, Austin found success with this formation, it also allows our more defensive-minded midfielders (Ring, Pepe, and Valencia) to control the midfield as best as possible without over-extending forward. This will mean that our chances could be extremely limited, but it’s most likely our best chance at securing points. Furthermore, RSL’s keeper MacMath has given gifts to opposing offenses with mind-numbingly poor decisions and inexcusable play at times. Hopefully, he has a gift for us, and we can make the most of it.
Do the Dirty Work - Blocks. Clearances. Duels won. Transitional defense. These types of hustle stats are going to be how Austin stays afloat in this game. Frustrate this high-powered offense for as long as you can, keep the score level and try to steal a goal along the way.
The North End’s Predictions
E - 1-1 Draw
ZG - 1-0 Real Salt Lake
