Match Preview - Real Salt Lake
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:40pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 3W-4L-1D against Real Salt Lake.
Relative to their first four seasons of MLS play, Austin has done pretty well against RSL. But it may not feel that way to the Verde faithful after the first meeting between the two clubs in 2024 was one to forget for ATX, a 5-1 drubbing back in June that included MVP candidate Chicho Arango scoring from midfield over Brad Stuver.
Austin won the first three games between these clubs at Q2 Stadium including the PK shootout win in the first round of the 2022 MLS Playoffs before dropping last year’s weather-delayed regular season match on June 2 by a 2-1 scoreline.
Real Salt Lake Recent Form
With just four games remaining in the 2024 MLS regular season, Real Salt Lake are currently sitting in second place in the Western Conference with a record of 14-9-7. Their high-powered offense has not cooled down since we last saw them hang five goals on our beloved Verde back in June. They’ve bagged 60 goals through their 30 games, just one of four teams in the league to eclipse that mark in 2024 alongside Inter Miami, LA Galaxy and Austin’s next opponent, Portland Timbers.
From a personnel standpoint, they’re led by the goal-contribution machine Chicho Arrango, who checks in with 17 goals and 12 assists in his 26 appearances. Those 17 goals put Chicho in a four-way tie for second most in the league with the likes of LAFC’s Denis Bouanga, Inter Miami’s Luis Suárez, and Philadelphia’s Daniel Gazdag. That group is of course behind DC United’s Christian Benteke, who’s racked up 19 goals in his 26 appearances. But back to RSL, the “fun” doesn’t stop with Chicho for Austin’s opponent. They also have U22 initiative player Diego Luna, who has a matching 12 assists to his name and six goals for good measure.
Andres Gómez, who had recorded 13 goals and nine assists in his first 23 matches of the season, was sold to Stade Rennais in Ligue 1 during the summer transfer window. On paper this was great news for the rest of the Western Conference, as few teams had the talent to stymie the blazing speed and skill the 21-year-old winger brought to the pitch. It was the type of move that Austin fans should long for, as RSL received three times the amount they paid for Gomez while also opening up another U22 initiative spot with his departure – that’s “good business.”
While not having to game plan for Gómez is surely a relief for opposing coaching staffs, Salt Lake did replenish their high end roster slots with two transfer window signings who are playing large roles for the club in designated player Diogo Gonçalves and U22 Initiative signing Dominik Marczuk.
Gonçalves arrives in Utah with one of the more impressive resumes the team has ever seen. With nearly 100 caps for Benfica, he has plenty of UEFA Champion’s League experience and fortifies the attacking group for RSL after the departure of Gómez. Marczuk, a Polish national who has represented his country at the U19, U20 and U21 levels, flanks the right side of the field across from Gonçalves and is another high-profile addition to an already excellent club. Salt Lake Sporting Director Kurt Schmid declared the “2-4-GAM” route for his team at the end of the summer transfer window and has all six of their “special” roster slots filled. Compare that to Austin FC, who is also implementing the “2-4-GAM” route, but is only using three of those six slots with one being fullback Žan Kolmanič, who has played just 83 total minutes across all competitions since May 25.
All that offense firepower has spluttered just a bit of late. In their last 13 matches, across all contests, RSL has secured just 14 points, including bowing out in League’s Cup in the group stage. That’s not to say that RSL isn’t salivating at a trip to Austin to battle a beleaguered Verde and Black side that has not found a win since defeating Nashville over a month ago. In fact, they’re probably looking at this match as a “get-right” spot for the stretch run.
Austin FC Recent Form
There’s no real way to avoid coming to the conclusion that this season is shaping up to be a massive failure. Austin FC is in a rebuild (one that is scheduled to be “complete” by the beginning of the 2025 season), but the stated goal prior to the year was to be playing meaningful soccer after Decision Day, and barring a miracle turn of fortune for the Verde and Black, ATX will fall short of that goal. While the club is not mathematically eliminated from wild card contention, it will take a straight-up collapse from both Minnesota United and FC Dallas, coupled with a shocking run of wins for the Verde and Black to find the points needed to sneak into the ninth seed in the Western Conference. With just four games remaining, and seven points separating our favorite team from Minnesota, the chances are slim to say the least.
Slim or not, we aren’t fucking leaving! As we talked about in Episode 177, we’re riding with this squad until it’s over (and beyond), and hope that you are as well.
We were so hopeful just a month ago, coming off of a thrilling Leagues Cup relative to expectation. Then ATX put on their best performance away from Q2 Stadium of the season (the bar was the definition of low, but it was!) in the regular season restart at Nashville SC, including the first goal for DP Osman Bukari in an Austin uniform. Of course, we all know what has transpired since. Three losses and a draw, including being shut out at home twice, has the ATX season on life support. We’ve discussed the shifts in some of Austin’s underlying numbers during this stretch, one of the few promising outcomes in an otherwise hopeless wasteland of fandom this September. But expected goals don’t win games, real ones do. The 2024 Austin FC season is a sinking ship, and we’re the band continuing to play as folks flee to the lifeboats.
The Verde and Black can mathematically stay alive on Saturday with a win, no matter what Minnesota and Dallas do in their matchups against Colorado Rapids and Orlando City SC, respectively. But losses by those two teams combined with an Austin victory would have us at least perking our heads up as ATX heads into another double game week and a road date with Portland Timbers on Wednesday.
To keep that faint pulse pumping, we’ll need to see significant improvement in front of net. Save the Vancouver loss early in the month, the chance have been there. If the chemistry between guys like Bukari, Sebastián Driussi and veteran striker Gyasi Zardes can take a step forward this week, it will certainly give fans something to look forward to in 2025, even if their last ditch effort to extend this season comes up short. We’ll be there, yelling and cheering for our favorite team until there’s nothing left to cheer for.
Injury Report
ATX:
No players listed
RSL:
Bode Hidalgo (Questionable - Leg)
Pablo Ruiz (Out - Knee)
Kevin Bonilla (Out - Knee)
Real Salt Lake Players to Watch
Chicho Arango - The 29-year-old Colombian forward is having the best season of his career. We saw that up close and personal back in June, where Chicho opened the scoring in what ended up being a 5-1 RSL victory by chipping Austin FC goalkeeper Brad Stuver from midfield. I can think of no better time for CB Oleksandr Svatok to make his first home start for the club than to be tasked with limiting the effectiveness of one of the favorites for league MVP.
Diogo Gonçalves - After only scoring three goals in his 98 appearances for Benfica, Gonçalves was leaned on heavily at FC Copenhagen, netting 21 goals in his 57 appearances. That was his last stop before coming stateside in the summer, so you’d have to expect Salt Lake wants more of the same. He’s got just one goal in his 308 minutes so far with the club, it will likely be Mikkel Desler’s primary assignment to make sure the left winger doesn’t add to his count.
Gavin Beavers - After making multiple game saving stops in his spot start at Q2 Stadium last June, the 19-year-old goalkeeper is the entrenched starter for RSL at this point of the season. Beavers has started seven of the last eight games for the club and while he’s a promising prospect, he’s been pretty shaky with his shot stopping, ranking just 28th in PSxG+/- per 90 (Stuver for instance, is third in that metric). Austin fans have to hope the teenager won’t suddenly find that same form he brought to central Texas last summer.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
For the love of God, please score some goals - We’ve made a point that while it’s far from the perfect stat, especially the smaller your sample size is, the xG for Austin over their last five games is promising. It doesn’t mean a damn thing if they can’t actually convert on the increased number of shots and chances they’re creating. Salt Lake will give Austin chances, as their 45 goals conceded is squarely in the middle of the pack among Western Conference teams. Hell, Austin FC has given up three less goals than RSL! When the Verde find themselves in front of net again on Saturday, someone has to step up and finish a chance.
Predictions
ZG - 3-2 Austin FC
E - 2-1 Austin FC
