Match Preview - Portland Timbers
Game Info
Kickoff: 9:40pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Providence Park - Portland, OR
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 2W-5L-1D against Portland Timbers.
That record is clearly not favorable for Austin FC, but when you dig into the timeline between these two clubs it stings a bit more. ATX won the first two meetings in this head-to-head series (by an aggregate scoreline of 7-2) including the club’s first ever win at Q2 Stadium on July 1, 2021. It seemed like the Verde & Black may have had the Timbers number after the pair of home wins, but the exact opposite has played out since.
Portland has won five of the six games between the two teams since, with Austin’s only point coming in a 2-2 draw at Providence Park on May 6 of last season.
Portland Timbers Recent Form
Let’s start with the obvious, the Timbers are an offensive juggernaut. As we discussed on Episode 178, Portland has scored more goals per game (2.1) than every team in MLS this season with the exception of Inter Miami. They can score from every level of the game. That undeniable attacking potency reared its ugly head when these two teams met at Q2 Stadium back in May.
Austin FC started the game on the right foot, when then-captain Sebastián Driussi earned a penalty on a wayward step by Timbers legend Diego Chara after being triple teamed in the box. Things quickly unraveled from there, as Driussi was denied at the spot by Portland’s backup goal keeper James Pantemis. It was his second miss from the spot in three games after converting every attempt prior to that in almost three full seasons with the club.
Austin was doing a fantastic job on the defensive side of the ball, limiting the Timbers to just one shot through the first 45 minutes. Then in the third minute of first half stoppage time, MLS MVP-candidate Evander buried one of the best long distance goals in Q2 history off a free kick about 30 yards from net. It was a back breaking wonder-goal that stunned the 20,000-plus assembled at McKalla.
The first 45 had been all about Austin to that point. They had out shot the Timbers 8-1 and created two “big chances” according to FotMob’s model prior to the Evander goal. In that first half, FotMob’s xG model showed Austin amassing 1.68 xG while Portland’s total stood at a measly 0.08. But as we frequently say on the pod, xG is nice but the stat that matters is “G”. Portland managed to grab a second “G” from the penalty spot in the 66’ and cruised to a 2-0 road victory. It marked the beginning of a hot summer for the Timbers, who earned 23 of a possible 30 points over a 10-game stretch from May 25 to July 13. They scored at least two goals in nine of those ten matches.
The Timbers have some all-league type of stat lines in their attacking group. As I mentioned above, Evander is an MVP-candidate (maybe even the favorite) with his 15 goals and 18 assists across his 25 appearances. Spring addition Jonathan “Cabecita” Rodríguez has added a team-leading 16 goals to go along with seven assists. On top of those two “household” names, striker Felipe Mora has netted 14 goals and dropped seven dimes, while U22 Initiative signing Santiago Moreno has contributed six goals and 14 assists.
So you might be wondering to yourself, how in the world is a team that’s so impressive on paper fighting for a wild card spot down in the depths with the likes of Austin FC and FC Dallas? Checking the tape, the Timbers got off to a horrific start in the regular season, earning just 10 points from their first 12 league matches. While Portland has scored a jaw-dropping 30 more goals than Austin FC this year, they’ve also conceded ten more times than the Verde & Black this season. This team will give up multiple goals more often than not and their inconsistencies on the defensive end have been what’s keeping them out of the upper echelon of teams in the Western Conference. Only eight of the 29 MLS teams have conceded more goals than the Timbers this season.
Portland has been quite solid of late, with home wins over Seattle Sounders and LA Galaxy and road draws against Real Salt Lake and Vancouver Whitecaps (without Evander due to yellow card accumulation) in their last five. They’ve done enough to be on the brink of clinching a postseason berth, while Austin has cratered. On August 30th, these two teams were essentially neck and neck in the standings, with Portland sitting on 37 points to Austin’s 34. Long time fans of the league like to joke that MLS stands for “Matters Little til September.” I can think of no better current application of the saying than looking at the respective directions that these two teams are headed down the stretch.
Austin FC Recent Form
We could probably just gesture wildly at the last five results for Austin FC and call it a day. But playoffs or not, in The North End, we don’t quit while there are still games to be played. If you’re reading this, that’s a sign that you haven’t prematurely moved on from the 2024 edition of Austin FC either.
To be fair to those who may have seen enough, can we really blame them? This team has earned just two points of a possible 15 in the last month, a stretch that required much more to achieve the club’s season-long goals that were already a pretty low bar to begin with. There’s a palpable frustration amongst some of the team’s most die-hard fans to the point of Los Verdes (the largest Austin FC supporter group and one that we are both members of) issuing a statement over the weekend calling for head coach Josh Wolff to be fired. We talked at length about our current stance on the coach and the questions we have surrounding the potential of him continuing as manager on both Episode 176 and Episode 177.
Austin has yet to be mathematically eliminated from wild card contention, but the conditions to get them there would be one of the most amazing things in professional sports history if it in fact played out. To reach the ninth seed, Austin FC would need to:
Win their final three games.
Have Dallas beat Portland on Saturday AND also lose or draw to one of San Jose (who have clinched the wooden spoon) on Wednesday or Sporting KC on Decision Day.
Have Portland lose on Decision Day to Seattle.
Make up a goal differential of 21 on Portland (making up just the current gap of 20 goals would move things to the next tiebreaker, goals scored, where Portland has a 30 goal lead on ATX)
With the team careening towards official elimination, Wolff’s status as manager is the burning topic for those most plugged into the club. But on Tuesday, we had two additional player-related actions for fans to digest and discuss. First, some more concerning social media activity from Sebastián Driussi, who posted an Instagram story that, when translated, went something like this.
“And when you least expect it, karma will come and put the entire world in their place. the people who have looked at you this year with bad eyes and jealousy will you see you very clearly.”
Was this directed at fans, teammates or coaches? Possibly a combination of the three. Twitter user @GrackleOps caught this clip of Driussi giving Alex Ring the stink eye during a questionable (at best) passing of the captain’s armband late in Saturday’s draw against RSL. These instances come on the heels of Austin’s highest paid player re-posting negative statements from fans about himself, Wolff and the club during a match against LAFC, a match that Driussi was suspended from. No matter what the reality is, one thing I think we can all agree on is that Driussi’s continued diva-esque posts are not helping any part of Austin’s current situation.
Then there was the eyebrow raising statement from Wolff at media availability Tuesday morning, revealing that center back Leo Väisänen has been medically cleared to play from his troublesome foot injury but has “decided to shut it down for the rest of the season.” Huh?!
The Finnish international did not show up on Tuesday’s injury report, so it’s a head scratcher for now. We can discuss that topic in more depth on Thursday’s episode, where we’ll also recap this Portland match. Wolff mentioned that Mikkel Desler is dealing with an injury and he was the lone member of the Verde & Black on said injury report. If he’s unable to give it a go, it seems likely that Jon Gallagher would resume fullback duties in his place, vacating a winger slot that could be filled by leading goal scorer Jáder Obrian.
I’m more concerned with a few other positions that were already on our radar in The North End prior to today’s injury update. Will we see Wolff go back to using a true striker and have Gyasi Zardes or Diego Rubio inserted back into the XI? Will Oleksandr Svatok draw his second start in an Austin FC uniform? And what the hell is going on with Dani Pereira, who has come off the bench in each of the last two “must win” games? As we discussed on Episode 178, I would like to see all three of those things come to pass when the lineup graphic is posted prior to kickoff on Wednesday.
Injury Report
ATX:
Mikkel Desler (Questionable - Lower Body)
POR:
David Ayala (Questionable - Lower Body)
Mason Toye (Out - Back)
Portland Timbers Players to Watch
Evander - The only thing I see holding Evander back from sweeping the MLS MVP voting is Portland’s place in the table. Typically, your league MVP doesn’t come from a mid-table side, but if I had a vote it would be going to the Timbers talisman midfielder. He was just named MLS player of the month after recording four goals and five assists in a six match span. Notably, those four goals would be good enough for third most on Austin FC’s roster all season.
Jonathan Rodríguez - The 31-year-old forward affectionately known as “Cabecita” has been a major reason why Portland have stayed afloat despite their lackluster defense. He’s already made his mark against Austin FC, earning and converting a penalty kick in the prior matchup in central Texas earlier this year. He’s been on fire of late as well, overshadowed by his teammate Evander in the month of September, racking up five goal contributions in his last five appearances.
Santiago Moreno - In his fourth year with the club, Moreno has come into his own this season. After a very respectable 31 goal contributions in his first 78 games with Portland dating back to 2021, the U22 Initiative signing has posted 20 contributions in his 29 games so far in 2024.
Austin FC Keys to the Game
Stick Together - There are going to be sweeping changes for Austin FC this winter. A lot of them will come in the form of player personnel. Many fans hope they will also come on the sidelines. From my perspective, the biggest challenge for ATX over these final three games is to keep the mental dam from breaking. It certainly showed cracks on Saturday at Q2. Whether a player or coach will be here or not for match day one in 2025 doesn’t have any bearing on the energy and effort they should give over these final three games. Those who will not be here next season are auditioning for the next stop in their respective careers. Those who will remain should be pushing for some positive momentum headed into the offseason, like we saw in a “meaningless” decision day match back in the 2021 season, where a wooden spoon adjacent Austin FC defeated a Sporting KC side that was still in contention for the top seed in the Western Conference by a 3-1 scoreline. I’ll be watching the body language and interactions of all involved even more closely than normal over these final three games. I’ve got my fingers crossed that that hypothetical dam doesn’t break.
Predictions
ZG - 1-0 Austin FC
E - 3-1 Portland Timbers
