Match Preview - Vancouver Whitecaps
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:40pm CT
Watch: Apple TV
Location: Q2 Stadium - Austin, TX
All-Time H2H Record
Austin FC has an all-time record of 1W-4L-2D against Vancouver Whitecaps.
The Verde & Black’s lone victory over the Whitecaps came in April of 2022, a 3-0 win that served as a nice bounce back performance after being upset by San Antonio FC in the US Open Cup just four days prior. In the first meeting between these two clubs this season, Austin FC managed a scoreless draw at BC Place despite being out shot 24-4 and conceding 65% possession to the Whitecaps.
Vancouver Recent Form
The Whitecaps will be coming into Q2 Stadium this weekend on short rest, having defeated Pacific FC on Tuesday night in the second leg of the Canadian Championship Semi-Final behind Ryan Gauld’s 11th minute goal. Prior to that match, Vancouver had been off for three weeks. They advanced in Leagues Cup by winning their group (you’ll recall we were paying close attention to their match against Tijuana), but then were quickly eliminated at the hands of Pumas by a 2-0 scoreline in the Round of 32. Their return to MLS regular season play was postponed as their scheduled opponent, LAFC, was preparing to play the Leagues Cup Final last weekend.
Vancouver was relatively quiet in the summer transfer window. They waived Javain Brown, who had been with the club since he was drafted in 2021, and signed fullback Édier Ocampo from Atletico Nacional for a $1.6 million fee. Ocampo will fill a U22 Initiative slot but is unlikely to suit up this weekend.
The last time we saw Vancouver in MLS play they were limping into the Leagues Cup break, but we should expect them to be close to full health come Saturday. Team captain Ryan Gauld suffered a low grade MCL sprain on July 20th and his appearance against Pacific FC on Tuesday was his first since coming off early against Houston Dynamo last month. They also saw a return to action for both Mathias Laborda and Triston Blackmon, who are typically in starting roles for the ‘Caps. I say “close to full health” because striker Brian White suffered a concussion against Pacific FC on Tuesday and is in doubt for Saturday’s match. His absence would be a significant blow to Vancouver’s attack, as White leads the team in goals with 12 and is second on the team in contributions with 14. He’s tied for sixth in MLS in aerial duels, which is a major factor in Vancouver’s set piece xG being fourth highest in the league.
The Whitecaps play style, especially on defense, isn’t too dissimilar from Austin. They don’t profile as a high pressing team (typically good news for ATX) and are 27th in the league in high turnovers created. That’s just two spots higher than the Verde and Black, who remain last in that category, but the major difference between the two sides in that aspect is what Vancouver has done with their limited opportunities off those high turnovers. While just 27th in high turnovers, the ‘Caps are second in the league in goals scored from high turnovers with seven. Austin on the other hand, has two. Finding ways to limit the efficiency of Vancouver’s counterattack is a key to the game for Austin.
Where they do noticeably differ from Austin is on offense. They are not a team that wants to have a ton of the ball and are just 23rd in MLS when it comes to average possession at 47%. When these two teams met back in early May, Austin FC conceded possession to Vancouver, who ended up with 65% possession that night. But that’s sort of where the differences end. When they do have lengthy passages of possession, Vancouver are tied with Austin in direct speed (a measure of how quickly a team progresses the ball towards the opponent’s goal in m/s) at 25th in the league. They’re noticeably on the “slow and intricate” side of things in their build up play when the counterattack is not on. While the previous meeting between these two saw the massive shot and possession disparities in favor of the ‘Caps that we’ve already covered, I expect both numbers to slide in Austin’s direction with this game being played in their house.
Austin FC Recent Form
Assuming the Austin starting XI is similar to the lineup we’ve seen over the last two games against LAFC and Nashville SC, it will be nearly unrecognizable compared to the XI they started in May’s draw at BC Place. In that match, Austin started just five of the same field players they did last Saturday and just three of those five played in the same position to start the match. Exchanging Emiliano Rigoni, Jáder Obrian, Diego Rubio, Jhojan Valencia and Julio Cascante for Osman Bukari, Mikkel Desler, Dani Pereira, Owen Wolff and Matt Hedges in the lineup is a swap I’ll make 10 times out of 10, especially knowing that four of those first five are still with the team and will be more than ready to perform in a reserve role if called upon.
I mentioned on Episode 170 that I think head coach Josh Wolff extends the perceived window of “strong performances” a bit further back than I do, but there’s no doubt that the team has been on the upswing since Bukari and Desler made their debuts back on July 20th. In the five matches since, Austin FC has a record of 3-1-1, scoring nine goals while conceding six. The lone loss for ATX in that stretch was to LAFC on the road, a team that has lost just seven times in their home stadium since September 2021. I can’t skip past that stat without including the fact that one of those losses came at the hands of Austin FC in May 2022.
Even in the Leagues Cup ending loss, there were positives, like the fact that Austin FC had 21 shot attempts. They added another 15 in the win against Nashville on Saturday night. Those 36 shots represent 31% of all shot attempts taken by Austin FC in road matches this season. While that is a dismal stat on the surface, I think it points to the fact that ATX has been somewhat “unlocked” offensively, at least relative to their performances to this point of the season. Prior to the last two games, Austin FC had taken more than 11 shots in a road match once this season.
I have two things I’m watching going forward. First, the finishing. While Austin was able to net two goals in Nashville, there were still some chances they should have put away, most notably Sebastián Driussi’s headed attempt from point blank range in the second half. They also struggled with those final actions against LAFC, unable to put one of their 20 attempts past Hugo Lloris. I’m hopeful (and I think all ATX fans should be) that we’ll see the chemistry between Driussi, Bukari and Gallagher continue to progress across these last eight games and that the overall execution in the final third will improve right along with it.
Second, the disciplinary issues continue to plague this team. While there are certainly differences between how all of these self-inflicted wounds have occurred, the fact of the matter is that Austin FC are tied for the most penalty kicks conceded in MLS with seven (they also gave one up to Pumas in the Leagues Cup group stage) and have been shown a red card in three of their last seven matches. A continuation of this trend over the final eight games will surely cause the Verde and Black to come up short of their playoff goals. It’s on the coaching staff to either tighten things up in the film room and training, or make the moves Wolff said weren’t possible earlier in the season and have players see the bench when they make boneheaded plays that cost the team dearly.
Ultimately, the vibes are pretty darn high headed into this match, at least relative to where we’ve generally been as a fan base over the last season and a half. The team had two signature home wins in the Leagues Cup group stage over Liga MX powerhouses and started their nine-game playoff push off on the right foot. A win this Saturday goes a long way in keeping Austin’s name in the postseason conversation.
Injury Report
ATX – Matt Bersano (Out – Lower Leg)
VAN – Brian White (Out – Concussion), Max Anchor (Out - Finger), Levonte Johnson (Out - Calf), Édier Ocampo (Out - Not do to injury)
Vancouver Players To Watch
Ryan Gauld – The 28-year-old midfielder has long been a thorn in the side of Austin FC. He came off the bench in the first ever meeting between the two clubs in 2021 at Q2 Stadium and provided the winning assist to Brian White. He also scored the game winning goal in the October 2022 match between the two at BC Place and assisted another game winner in the same venue in July of 2023 after Rodney Redes equalized out of the half (his only career MLS goal). With 18 goal contributions in his 24 MLS appearances this season, Gauld is priority number one when it comes to trying to stifle the Vancouver attack.
Damir Kreilach – With Brian White expected to miss this match, we should see the veteran forward take his place in the starting group. Kreilach is now 35 years old and his best days are behind him. But the ol’ guy can still get out there and punish a defense that falls asleep even for a moment. He’s only played 382 MLS minutes this season, most of them in relief, but he’s got two goals to his name in 2024 which is just one fewer than Gyasi Zardes in about a third of the time. He’s also just three years (and one back surgery) removed from a 16-goal season in 2021. Kreilach is a big body up front and his time as a midfielder throughout his career will present opportunities for Vancouver to play through him in the final third.
Sam Adekugbe – Having originally joined the Whitecaps through their “residency program” in 2011, Adekugbe also spent six seasons in Europe before reuniting with the ‘Caps in 2023. He was a menace in the May match up between these two teams, giving the Austin back line all kinds of trouble bombing up and down the left side of the field before going out in the 43’ with a soft tissue injury. It certainly helps Austin that Mikkel Desler is now manning that side, and Adekugbe will have his hands full with Osman Bukari in his area as well, but the Austin coaching staff is surely giving a lengthy scout on the veteran defender based on how much trouble he caused them in a short period of time a few months ago.
Austin’s Keys To The Game
Keep Knocking – Over the last two matches we’ve seen the Austin FC attack generate a much more serious offensive threat than we’ve been accustomed to in 2024. While the 35 shots across those games have only resulted in two goals, I think the “avalanche” is coming at some point. With the Verde faithful ready to explode with energy and excitement this coming Saturday (the first time back at Q2 Stadium in over a month), it feels like if the guys keep knocking on that goal with 15-20 shots a game that the dam will burst and we’ll see the new-look Austin attack put a whoopin’ on an opposing team.
Limit Counterattacks – While I don’t forecast the Whitecaps putting a ton of defensive pressure on ATX high up the pitch this Saturday, we talked about how efficient they’ve been with their counterattack chances this season. Nashville had their opportunities, but outside of the Hines-Ike mishap to begin the game, Austin did well to cover their butts in transition. Keep that up against Vancouver and the good guys should be walking out of Q2 Stadium with three points.
The North End’s Predictions
ZG – 2-0 Austin FC
E – 3-1 Austin FC
